AI correctly predicted the Rio Ave Sub-19 win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Rio Ave Sub-19 Rio Ave Sub-19 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave Sub-19 | 36.6% | 34.2% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.6% | +0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 | 33.8% | 36.1% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Rio Ave Sub-19 win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Rio Ave Sub-19 win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rio Ave Sub-19 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 33.8%
- xG · Rio Ave Sub-19 1.33 — Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 1.27
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rio Ave Sub-19 2.60 · Draw 3.00 · Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Rio Ave Sub-19 34.2% · Draw 29.6% · Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 36.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Rio Ave Sub-19 2.60 · Draw 3.00 · Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Rio Ave Sub-19 34.2% · Draw 29.6% · Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 36.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rio Ave Sub-19 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
30/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rio Ave Sub-19 win · Rio Ave Sub-19 2–0 Vitória Guimarães Sub-19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rio Ave Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rio Ave Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0837,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.39,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rio Ave Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rio Ave Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0837,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rio Ave Sub-19 1.33 xG vs Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19 1.27 \u2192 Rio Ave Sub-19 36.6%",
"Market: Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19 ~34.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Rio Ave Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rio Ave Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"market_prob": 34.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.0,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19",
"market_prob": 36.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.04,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.04,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 34.2,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Rio Ave Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rio Ave Sub-19 1.33 xG vs Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19 1.27 \u2192 Rio Ave Sub-19 36.6%",
"Market: Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19 ~34.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Rio Ave Sub-19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rio Ave Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.39,
"hero_label": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.39,
"edge_pp": 2.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 34.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.0,
"edge_pp": 0.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.38,
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 36.15,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19 (34.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rio Ave Sub-19, Market \u2192 Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vitoria-guimaraes-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 22520,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22520.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "0u7RjJjgSyoaoB",
"away_team_slug": "vitoria-guimaraes-u19",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1592005,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 22517,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22517.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "0Z5tKo21yJ7BQt",
"home_team_slug": "rio-ave-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rio-ave-u19",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "J\u00faniores U19",
"league_id": 1041,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1041.webp",
"league_name": "J\u00faniores U19",
"league_public_id": "05AnTzdC982Dmv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4AZj2F73wSXkvf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4338,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1363,
"implied_prob": 0.3615,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3615,
"draw": 0.2964,
"home": 0.342
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3511
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3615,
"draw": 0.2964,
"home": 0.342
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4338,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3615,
"draw": 0.2964,
"home": 0.342
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3524
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.069,
"ev": -0.1696,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2224,
"alpha_yes": 0.2447,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.66,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0085,
"edge_yes": -0.0085,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0445,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0793,
"ev_yes": -0.0953,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0858,
"implied_no": 0.4465,
"implied_yes": 0.5535,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5507
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4491,
"p_final_yes": 0.5507,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2194,
"alpha_under": 0.2194,
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.84,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.83,
"edge_over": -0.0204,
"edge_under": 0.0204,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0892,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0758,
"implied_over": 0.5024,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4986,
"implied_under": 0.4976,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5014,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0037,
"ev": -0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0758,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.505
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.495,
"p_final_under": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rio Ave Sub-19 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rio Ave Sub-19 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rio Ave Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Rio Ave Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Rio Ave Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0837,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0837,
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rio Ave Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0017,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"p_final": 0.4491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0793,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5507
}
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4465,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0037,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0037,
"ev": -0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"p_final": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0758,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2194,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0758,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.505
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1592005,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vit\u00f3ria Guimar\u00e3es Sub-19",
"home": "Rio Ave Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0837,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.342,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0484,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1592005,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:11:43.125829+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Júniores U19 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Sub-19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 1 | Sporting CP Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Benfica Sub-19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Sporting Braga Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oriental Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Mafra Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Feirense Sub-19 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Torreense Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Rio Ave Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Santa Clara Sub-19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Moreirense Sub-19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Casa Pia Sub-19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Famalicão Sub-19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Farense Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Académico Viseu Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | União Leiria Sub-19 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Vizela Sub-19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Alverca Sub-19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica Sub-19 | 6 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Porto Sub-19 | 6 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP Sub-19 | 6 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara Sub-19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 |
| 5 | Torreense Sub-19 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Oriental Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Sporting Braga Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Moreirense Sub-19 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães Sub-19 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca Sub-19 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 11 | Mafra Sub-19 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 | Rio Ave Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Feirense Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Casa Pia Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Famalicão Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | SC Farense Sub-19 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Vizela Sub-19 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | União Leiria Sub-19 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 | Académico Viseu Sub-19 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
