The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Isparta 32 Spor at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Isparta 32 Spor Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isparta 32 Spor | 39.0% | 30.8% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.9% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Belediye Derincespor | 31.5% | 42.3% | -10.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Belediye Derincespor's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Belediye Derincespor than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Isparta 32 Spor; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Isparta 32 Spor by 10.8 percentage points (49.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Isparta 32 Spor 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Belediye Derincespor 31.5%
- xG · Isparta 32 Spor 1.38 — Belediye Derincespor 1.22
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Isparta 32 Spor 2.94 · Draw 3.36 · Belediye Derincespor 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Isparta 32 Spor 30.8% · Draw 26.9% · Belediye Derincespor 42.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Isparta 32 Spor 2.94 · Draw 3.36 · Belediye Derincespor 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Isparta 32 Spor 30.8% · Draw 26.9% · Belediye Derincespor 42.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
15/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Isparta 32 Spor 3–3 Belediye Derincespor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"alert_team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.8,
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"hero_edge_pp": -10.81,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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},
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"alignment": {
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
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"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isparta 32 Spor at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isparta 32 Spor as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Isparta 32 Spor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591309 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0001,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3401360544217687,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1457,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"steam_team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1456,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isparta 32 Spor at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isparta 32 Spor as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Isparta 32 Spor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591309 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0001,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3401360544217687,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1457,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Isparta 32 Spor 1.38 xG vs Belediye Derincespor 1.22 \u2192 Isparta 32 Spor 39.0%",
"Market: Belediye Derincespor ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Isparta 32 Spor \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Isparta 32 Spor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.19,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"market_prob": 30.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.61,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Belediye Derincespor",
"market_prob": 42.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.39,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.39,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.84,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.84,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Belediye Derincespor",
"market_prob_pct": 42.29,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Isparta 32 Spor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Belediye Derincespor\u0027s win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Isparta 32 Spor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Isparta 32 Spor 1.38 xG vs Belediye Derincespor 1.22 \u2192 Isparta 32 Spor 39.0%",
"Market: Belediye Derincespor ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Isparta 32 Spor \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Isparta 32 Spor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.81,
"hero_label": "Belediye Derincespor",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Isparta 32 Spor odds shortened \u2193 -13.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Isparta 32 Spor, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Belediye Derincespor than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Isparta 32 Spor \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Belediye Derincespor than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Isparta 32 Spor, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"Buying interest on Isparta 32 Spor \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Belediye Derincespor more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Isparta 32 Spor has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.9%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Belediye Derincespor",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Belediye Derincespor higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.19,
"edge_pp": 8.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"market_prob_pct": 30.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.61,
"edge_pp": 2.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.93,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.81,
"edge_pp": -10.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Belediye Derincespor",
"market_prob_pct": 42.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Isparta 32 Spor \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Belediye Derincespor (30.8%).",
"However, Isparta 32 Spor has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.9%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Isparta 32 Spor, Market \u2192 Belediye Derincespor, Recent sharp money \u2192 Isparta 32 Spor.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Isparta 32 Spor (13.9%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.27",
"2.94"
],
"display": "3.75 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 29m",
"pick_team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
2.94,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Isparta 32 Spor \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Isparta 32 Spor \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belediye-derincespor",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Belediye Derincespor",
"away_team_id": 6511,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6511.webp",
"away_team_name": "Belediye Derincespor",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Belediye Derincespor",
"away_team_public_id": "5SnSryoiAsc2JR",
"away_team_slug": "belediye-derincespor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1591309,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"home_team_id": 6523,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6523.webp",
"home_team_name": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"home_team_public_id": "28FsPwPLWmW7U9",
"home_team_slug": "isparta-32-spor",
"ht.home_team_slug": "isparta-32-spor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "2. Lig Turqu\u00eda",
"league_id": 205,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/205.webp",
"league_name": "2. Lig Turqu\u00eda",
"league_public_id": "3ZoDl7ddIsgnEL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5ZIejglO9GyBIf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3771,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1822,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2693,
"home": 0.3078
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3822
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2883,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0698,
"implied_prob": 0.2693,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2693,
"home": 0.3078
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2768
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3947,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": -0.0001,
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4229,
"draw": 0.2693,
"home": 0.3078
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3401
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1524,
"ev": -0.3261,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0022,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0495,
"ev": 0.1456,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2219,
"alpha_yes": 0.244,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0084,
"edge_yes": 0.0084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0897,
"ev_yes": -0.048,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0818,
"implied_no": 0.4644,
"implied_yes": 0.5356,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.0897,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4632
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.244,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.5347,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.537
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4632,
"p_final_yes": 0.537,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
"alpha_under": 0.2424,
"best_over_odd": 1.98,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.79,
"edge_over": -0.0139,
"edge_under": 0.0139,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0456,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1031,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"implied_over": 0.4959,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4958,
"implied_under": 0.5041,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4928
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5075
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4928,
"p_final_under": 0.5075,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1456,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1456,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Isparta 32 Spor at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Isparta 32 Spor as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Isparta 32 Spor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Isparta 32 Spor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.94 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1591309 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.94 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Isparta 32 Spor).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0001,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3401360544217687,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1457,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": -0.0001,
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Isparta 32 Spor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.244,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"edge": 0.0023,
"market_prob": 0.5347,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2219,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.0897,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4632
},
"p_final": 0.537,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0818,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.244,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0818,
"implied_prob": 0.5347,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.537
}
},
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.5356,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0034,
"market_prob": 0.5042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4928
},
"p_final": 0.5075,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0916,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5075
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1591309,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Belediye Derincespor",
"home": "Isparta 32 Spor"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0001,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.94,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3401360544217687,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1457,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1591309,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:57:27.972738+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Lig Turquía — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elazığspor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Somaspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 3 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Somaspor | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 8 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | |
| 15 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 17 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
