The model missed the final outcome (Çorluspor 1947 win 0–2).
The model had projected Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Arnavutköy Belediyespor Çorluspor 1947 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 36.6% | 15.4% | +21.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.4% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Çorluspor 1947 | 33.8% | 61.2% | -27.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Çorluspor 1947's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Çorluspor 1947 win 0–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Arnavutköy Belediyespor; match finished Çorluspor 1947
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arnavutköy Belediyespor by 27.4 percentage points (64.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Çorluspor 1947 33.8%
- xG · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.33 — Çorluspor 1947 1.27
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 5.86 · Draw 3.87 · Çorluspor 1947 1.48
- Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 15.4% · Draw 23.4% · Çorluspor 1947 61.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 5.86 · Draw 3.87 · Çorluspor 1947 1.48
- Implied 1X2 · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 15.4% · Draw 23.4% · Çorluspor 1947 61.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Çorluspor 1947 win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Çorluspor 1947 win · Arnavutköy Belediyespor 0–2 Çorluspor 1947
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0744,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0744,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"sort_key": 10066.96,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"alert_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.39,
"hero_label": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"market_team": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011446000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0744,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1706484641638225,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.39,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"steam_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011446000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0744,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1706484641638225,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor 1.33 xG vs \u00c7orluspor 1947 1.27 \u2192 Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor 36.6%",
"Market: \u00c7orluspor 1947 ~15.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 21.14,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"market_prob": 15.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.25,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.39,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"market_prob": 61.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -27.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"market_prob_pct": 61.16,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u00c7orluspor 1947\u0027s win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 27.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor 1.33 xG vs \u00c7orluspor 1947 1.27 \u2192 Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor 36.6%",
"Market: \u00c7orluspor 1947 ~15.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.39,
"hero_label": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds lengthened \u2191 +16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"largest_gap_pp": -27.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u00c7orluspor 1947 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 21.14,
"edge_pp": 21.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"market_prob_pct": 15.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.25,
"edge_pp": 6.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -27.39,
"edge_pp": -27.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"market_prob_pct": 61.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00c7orluspor 1947 (15.4%).",
"However, Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.7%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, Market \u2192 \u00c7orluspor 1947, while Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 67.57,
"closing_odds": 1.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 67.57,
"entry_odds": 1.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books lengthened Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor together (16.7% drift, score 76) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.86",
"5.18",
"4.50"
],
"display": "6.31 \u2192 4.40 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 15m",
"pick_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
5.86,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds \u2191 +16.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor odds \u2191 +16.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "corluspor-1947",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"away_team_id": 22451,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22451.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"away_team_public_id": "5jmumGSWxxzqI0",
"away_team_slug": "corluspor-1947",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1591306,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"home_team_id": 15101,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15101.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"home_team_public_id": "4q4lfNptfrkpwN",
"home_team_slug": "arnavutkoy-belediyespor",
"ht.home_team_slug": "arnavutkoy-belediyespor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "2. Lig Turqu\u00eda",
"league_id": 205,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/205.webp",
"league_name": "2. Lig Turqu\u00eda",
"league_public_id": "3ZoDl7ddIsgnEL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "4HUBnyjO1t4E5j",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3533,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0968,
"ev": -0.2381,
"implied_prob": 0.6116,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6116,
"draw": 0.2339,
"home": 0.1545
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.5148
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2718,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.2339,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6116,
"draw": 0.2339,
"home": 0.1545
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2509
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1365,
"best_odd": 5.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6116,
"draw": 0.2339,
"home": 0.1545
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.1834
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.3381,
"ev": -0.5004,
"implied_prob": 0.6757,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0381,
"ev": 0.1474,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 5.86,
"edge": 0.1953,
"ev": 1.1446,
"implied_prob": 0.1706,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2217,
"alpha_yes": 0.2016,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0686,
"edge_yes": 0.0686,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1092,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0552,
"implied_no": 0.5236,
"implied_yes": 0.4764,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1092,
"implied_prob": 0.5245,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5091
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4755,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4895
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5091,
"p_final_yes": 0.4895,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2362,
"alpha_under": 0.2147,
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.86,
"edge_over": -0.0358,
"edge_under": 0.0358,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1058,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0809,
"implied_over": 0.5178,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5124,
"implied_under": 0.4822,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4876,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2362,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.5124,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5052
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4941
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5052,
"p_final_under": 0.4941,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1446,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011446000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 15.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor, but the model still strongly favours Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0744,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1706484641638225,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0744,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.4755,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1092,
"implied_prob": 0.5245,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5091
},
"p_final": 0.4895,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0552,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2016,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4755,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4895
}
},
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.0628,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4876,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2362,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.1058,
"implied_prob": 0.5124,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5052
},
"p_final": 0.4941,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0809,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0809,
"implied_prob": 0.4876,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4941
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0358,
"ev": 0.0774,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4822,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1591306,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u00c7orluspor 1947",
"home": "Arnavutk\u00f6y Belediyespor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034226,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0744,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.86,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1706484641638225,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1448,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+114.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1591306,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:02:30.808254+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Lig Turquía — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elazığspor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Somaspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muş Menderesspor | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 3 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Somaspor | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Erbaaspor | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Çorluspor 1947 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 8 | Belediye Derincespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Aliağa FAŞ | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Şanlıurfaspor | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Menemen Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Isparta 32 Spor | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Adana Demirspor | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | |
| 15 | Ankaraspor | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Kastamonuspor 1966 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 17 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Hatayspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
