AI correctly predicted the Tokat Bld Plevnespor win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Tokat Bld Plevnespor Tokat Bld Plevnespor ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 32.4% | 34.6% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 38.0% | 37.8% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Tokat Bld Plevnespor win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Tokat Bld Plevnespor win 0–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 38.0%
- xG · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.24 — Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.60 · Draw 3.25 · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 34.6% · Draw 27.7% · Tokat Bld Plevnespor 37.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tokat Bld Plevnespor win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
89/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tokat Bld Plevnespor win · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0–3 Tokat Bld Plevnespor
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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],
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.18,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"steam_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tokat Bld Plevnespor at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tokat Bld Plevnespor as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.24 xG vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36 \u2192 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 38.0%",
"Market: Tokat Bld Plevnespor ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tokat Bld Plevnespor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob": 34.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.93,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"market_prob": 37.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.29,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 34.57,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.24 xG vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36 \u2192 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 38.0%",
"Market: Tokat Bld Plevnespor ~37.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tokat Bld Plevnespor with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.18,
"hero_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds lengthened \u2191 +23.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor (\u2191 +23.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/4) supports the current market view on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.18,
"edge_pp": -2.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 34.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.93,
"edge_pp": 1.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.24,
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"market_prob_pct": 37.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tokat Bld Plevnespor (37.8%).",
"However, Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +23.8%, 3/4) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Tokat Bld Plevnespor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"3/4 books lengthened Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor together (23.8% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.35",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.62 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor odds \u2191 +23.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"away_team_id": 21035,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21035.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"away_team_public_id": "0YbZZxvGzejdtM",
"away_team_slug": "tokat-bld-plevnespor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1590377,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"home_team_id": 24957,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24957.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"home_team_public_id": "0mDRVdQTcOyQiN",
"home_team_slug": "yalova-yesilovaspor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "3. Lig Turqu\u00eda - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 552,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/552.webp",
"league_name": "3. Lig Turqu\u00eda - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "0mfLQrCVuq1jL4",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2sbWrYcUFHfrr1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4482,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3789
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2913,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.2766,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2822
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4351,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3777,
"draw": 0.2766,
"home": 0.3457
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3362
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": -0.0609,
"ev": -0.1583,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1595,
"alpha_yes": 0.145,
"best_no_odd": 1.81,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0529,
"edge_yes": 0.0529,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1746,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1017,
"ev_yes": 0.0118,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0723,
"implied_no": 0.5089,
"implied_yes": 0.4911,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5005
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4988
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5005,
"p_final_yes": 0.4988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2077,
"alpha_under": 0.2285,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.14,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0519,
"edge_under": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0552,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"implied_over": 0.4301,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4309,
"implied_under": 0.5699,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5691,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5575
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4415,
"p_final_under": 0.5575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tokat Bld Plevnespor at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tokat Bld Plevnespor as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tokat Bld Plevnespor).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.4911,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1595,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1017,
"implied_prob": 0.5089,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5005
},
"p_final": 0.4988,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4988
}
},
"edge": 0.0529,
"ev": 0.0118,
"implied_prob": 0.4911,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"p_final": 0.4415,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0552,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5575
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590377,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tokat Bld Plevnespor",
"home": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4301,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0949,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590377,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:37.258648+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Lig Turquía - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Düzcespor | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Galata | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Silivrispor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orduspor 1967 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Pazarspor | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Gölcükspor | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | İnkılapspor | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Galata | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuzlaspor | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
