AI correctly predicted the BŠK Bijelo Brdo win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 BŠK Bijelo Brdo BŠK Bijelo Brdo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubrava Zagreb | 33.3% | 31.7% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.5% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| BŠK Bijelo Brdo | 37.1% | 39.8% | -2.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (BŠK Bijelo Brdo win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (BŠK Bijelo Brdo win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dubrava Zagreb 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · BŠK Bijelo Brdo 37.0%
- xG · Dubrava Zagreb 1.26 — BŠK Bijelo Brdo 1.34
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dubrava Zagreb 2.89 · Draw 3.21 · BŠK Bijelo Brdo 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Dubrava Zagreb 31.7% · Draw 28.5% · BŠK Bijelo Brdo 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Dubrava Zagreb 2.89 · Draw 3.21 · BŠK Bijelo Brdo 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Dubrava Zagreb 31.7% · Draw 28.5% · BŠK Bijelo Brdo 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result BŠK Bijelo Brdo win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.3
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
BŠK Bijelo Brdo win · Dubrava Zagreb 0–1 BŠK Bijelo Brdo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
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],
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"model_lean": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1118,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.74,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"steam_team": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1118,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dubrava Zagreb 1.26 xG vs B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo 1.34 \u2192 B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo 37.1%",
"Market: B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Dubrava Zagreb odds \u2191 +17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.63,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"market_prob": 31.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.11,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.74,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob": 39.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.5,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.5,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Dubrava Zagreb"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dubrava Zagreb 1.26 xG vs B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo 1.34 \u2192 B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo 37.1%",
"Market: B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Dubrava Zagreb odds \u2191 +17.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.74,
"hero_label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Dubrava Zagreb odds lengthened \u2191 +17.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Dubrava Zagreb has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Dubrava Zagreb \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Dubrava Zagreb has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Dubrava Zagreb \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Dubrava Zagreb has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Dubrava Zagreb."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.63,
"edge_pp": 1.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"market_prob_pct": 31.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.11,
"edge_pp": 1.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.74,
"edge_pp": -2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Dubrava Zagreb \u2014 odds lengthened by 17.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo (39.8%).",
"However, Dubrava Zagreb has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.6%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.48,
"closing_odds": 2.3,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.48,
"entry_odds": 2.3,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books lengthened Dubrava Zagreb together (17.6% drift, score 75) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.89",
"2.63",
"2.38"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 17m",
"pick_team": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.89,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Dubrava Zagreb odds \u2191 +17.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Dubrava Zagreb odds \u2191 +17.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bsk-bijelo-brdo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"away_team_id": 1487,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1487.webp",
"away_team_name": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"away_team_public_id": "0VltivieZi7TFQ",
"away_team_slug": "bsk-bijelo-brdo",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1590172,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"home_team_id": 6255,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6255.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dubrava Zagreb",
"home_team_public_id": "1hQnbL5iRBWQjr",
"home_team_slug": "dubrava-zagreb",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dubrava-zagreb",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "Primera NL de Croacia",
"league_id": 211,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/211.webp",
"league_name": "Primera NL de Croacia",
"league_public_id": "1oWaYwo2RdS6hN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "32lcpiFnB4yFKn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Zagreb",
"venue_name": "SRC Pescenica"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4314,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.398,
"draw": 0.2852,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3862
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.2852,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.398,
"draw": 0.2852,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2884
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4387,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.3168,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.398,
"draw": 0.2852,
"home": 0.3168
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3241
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1478,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.0362,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.207,
"alpha_yes": 0.207,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.055,
"edge_yes": 0.055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1051,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0648,
"implied_no": 0.51,
"implied_yes": 0.49,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4972
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4972,
"p_final_yes": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.205,
"alpha_under": 0.2255,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0586,
"edge_under": -0.0586,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0561,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1036,
"implied_over": 0.4234,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4229,
"implied_under": 0.5766,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5771,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.435
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5638
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.435,
"p_final_under": 0.5638,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1118,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"market_prob": 0.4918,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1051,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4972
},
"p_final": 0.5028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0648,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"edge": 0.055,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.49,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0121,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.435
},
"p_final": 0.435,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0561,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2255,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1036,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5638
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0586,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4234,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1590172,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "B\u0160K Bijelo Brdo",
"home": "Dubrava Zagreb"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.02851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4234,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1118,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1590172,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:08:12.021890+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera NL de Croacia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 | BŠK Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dugopolje | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb Sub-21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Vukovar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Kustošija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Opatija | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb Sub-21 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vukovar | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Croatia Zmijavci | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Sesvete | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Dugopolje | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | BŠK Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Segesta Sisak | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Opatija | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hrvace | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | HNK Cibalia | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Kustošija | 7 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
