The model missed the final outcome (UN Käerjéng 97 win 2–4).
The model had projected F91 Dudelange at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 F91 Dudelange UN Käerjéng 97 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F91 Dudelange | 39.0% | 41.1% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| UN Käerjéng 97 | 31.5% | 33.7% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue UN Käerjéng 97 win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was UN Käerjéng 97 win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · UN Käerjéng 97 31.5%
- xG · F91 Dudelange 1.38 — UN Käerjéng 97 1.22
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.23 · Draw 3.63 · UN Käerjéng 97 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 41.1% · Draw 25.2% · UN Käerjéng 97 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.23 · Draw 3.63 · UN Käerjéng 97 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 41.1% · Draw 25.2% · UN Käerjéng 97 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result UN Käerjéng 97 win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
78/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
UN Käerjéng 97 win · F91 Dudelange 2–4 UN Käerjéng 97
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1044,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"alert_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.3,
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"show": true,
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"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 4.3,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.3,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"steam_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1603,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: F91 Dudelange 1.38 xG vs UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 1.22 \u2192 F91 Dudelange 39.0%",
"Market: F91 Dudelange ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 odds \u2191 +10.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean F91 Dudelange with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.11,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob": 41.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.2,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob": 33.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.37,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.37,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.37,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.24,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "F91 Dudelange",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "F91 Dudelange \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: F91 Dudelange 1.38 xG vs UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 1.22 \u2192 F91 Dudelange 39.0%",
"Market: F91 Dudelange ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 odds \u2191 +10.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean F91 Dudelange with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.3,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 odds lengthened \u2191 +10.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.11,
"edge_pp": -2.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "F91 Dudelange",
"market_prob_pct": 41.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.3,
"edge_pp": 4.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.2,
"edge_pp": -2.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"market_prob_pct": 33.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers F91 Dudelange (41.1%).",
"UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.6%, 2/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"F91 Dudelange \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.55,
"closing_odds": 3.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.55,
"entry_odds": 3.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97 (10.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.72",
"2.54",
"2.35"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
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"pick_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.72,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
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"move_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
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"pick_team": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "un-kaerjeng-97",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"away_team_id": 2035,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2035.webp",
"away_team_name": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"away_team_public_id": "4Xq51pR6oG2w8a",
"away_team_slug": "un-kaerjeng-97",
"country_code": "LU",
"country_display_name": "Luxembourg",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_id": 97,
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1589497,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Luxembourg",
"home_team_display_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"home_team_id": 578,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/578.webp",
"home_team_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"home_team_public_id": "0wMKDpRi2IYpBt",
"home_team_slug": "f91-dudelange",
"ht.home_team_slug": "f91-dudelange",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_country_display": "Luxembourg",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_public_id": "0RABo0hRc68yy3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1eHuAKFImpqzvL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dudelange",
"venue_name": "Stade Jos Nosbaum"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3368,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4108
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3273
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2806,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.2524,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4108
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2645
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4357,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2524,
"home": 0.4108
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4016
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.1434,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0588,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1632,
"alpha_yes": 0.2244,
"best_no_odd": 2.36,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0637,
"edge_yes": -0.0637,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0762,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0671,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"implied_no": 0.3923,
"implied_yes": 0.6077,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4039
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5923
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4039,
"p_final_yes": 0.5923,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2122,
"alpha_under": 0.1929,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.24,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.0937,
"edge_under": 0.0937,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1145,
"ev_under": 0.1603,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"implied_over": 0.5757,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5771,
"implied_under": 0.4243,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4229,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5569,
"p_final_under": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1603,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1603,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (F91 Dudelange)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1603,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1603,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates F91 Dudelange at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies F91 Dudelange as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "F91 Dudelange",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "F91 Dudelange"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0102,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4039
},
"p_final": 0.4039,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0671,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5923
}
},
"edge": 0.0637,
"ev": 0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.3923,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0937,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1589497,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1603,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UN K\u00e4erj\u00e9ng 97",
"home": "F91 Dudelange"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.058125,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1044,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1589497,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T17:59:47.800443+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Nacional de Luxemburgo — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 | US Hostert | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 |
