The model missed the final outcome (US Mondorf-les-Bains win 1–2).
The model had projected Atert Bissen at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Atert Bissen US Mondorf-les-Bains ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atert Bissen | 38.0% | 42.2% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| US Mondorf-les-Bains | 32.4% | 31.4% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue US Mondorf-les-Bains win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was US Mondorf-les-Bains win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atert Bissen 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · US Mondorf-les-Bains 32.4%
- xG · Atert Bissen 1.36 — US Mondorf-les-Bains 1.24
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 2.17 · Draw 3.47 · US Mondorf-les-Bains 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 42.2% · Draw 26.4% · US Mondorf-les-Bains 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Atert Bissen 2.17 · Draw 3.47 · US Mondorf-les-Bains 2.92
- Implied 1X2 · Atert Bissen 42.2% · Draw 26.4% · US Mondorf-les-Bains 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result US Mondorf-les-Bains win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
78/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
US Mondorf-les-Bains win · Atert Bissen 1–2 US Mondorf-les-Bains
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.21,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Atert Bissen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atert Bissen at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atert Bissen as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atert Bissen",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atert Bissen 1.36 xG vs US Mondorf-les-Bains 1.24 \u2192 Atert Bissen 38.0%",
"Market: Atert Bissen ~42.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Atert Bissen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atert Bissen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Atert Bissen",
"market_prob": 42.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "US Mondorf-les-Bains",
"market_prob": 31.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.47,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.47,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atert Bissen",
"market_prob_pct": 42.22,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Atert Bissen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atert Bissen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Atert Bissen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atert Bissen 1.36 xG vs US Mondorf-les-Bains 1.24 \u2192 Atert Bissen 38.0%",
"Market: Atert Bissen ~42.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Atert Bissen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atert Bissen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.21,
"hero_label": "Atert Bissen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atert Bissen.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atert Bissen."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Atert Bissen (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Atert Bissen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Atert Bissen",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.21,
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atert Bissen",
"market_prob_pct": 42.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.19,
"edge_pp": 3.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.01,
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "US Mondorf-les-Bains",
"market_prob_pct": 31.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Atert Bissen.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atert Bissen (42.2%).",
"Atert Bissen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"closing_odds": 2.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.08,
"entry_odds": 2.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Atert Bissen",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Atert Bissen",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "US Mondorf-les-Bains",
"away_team_id": 2037,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2037.webp",
"away_team_name": "US Mondorf-les-Bains",
"away_team_public_id": "0RwYw55ji7qgrz",
"away_team_slug": "us-mondorf-les-bains",
"country_code": "LU",
"country_display_name": "Luxembourg",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_id": 97,
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1589479,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Luxembourg",
"home_team_display_name": "Atert Bissen",
"home_team_id": 15847,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15847.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atert Bissen",
"home_team_public_id": "1B28IVGVYwXM2M",
"home_team_slug": "atert-bissen",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_country_display": "Luxembourg",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Nacional de Luxemburgo",
"league_public_id": "0RABo0hRc68yy3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "62NyjUsbi6vSWM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4433,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.3138,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3138,
"draw": 0.264,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3182
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0522,
"implied_prob": 0.264,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3138,
"draw": 0.264,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2731
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4217,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3138,
"draw": 0.264,
"home": 0.4222
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4045
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": 0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.0805,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1493,
"alpha_yes": 0.1642,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0347,
"edge_yes": -0.0347,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0014,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0745,
"ev_yes": -0.1405,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0947,
"implied_no": 0.4213,
"implied_yes": 0.5787,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4265
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0947,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.573
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4265,
"p_final_yes": 0.573,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.226,
"alpha_under": 0.2054,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.725,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.025,
"edge_over": -0.0576,
"edge_under": 0.0576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0911,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0444,
"implied_over": 0.5396,
"implied_over_mf": 0.54,
"implied_under": 0.4604,
"implied_under_mf": 0.46,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.226,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.54,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5269
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4719
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5269,
"p_final_under": 0.4719,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atert Bissen at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atert Bissen as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atert Bissen",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atert Bissen).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atert Bissen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0052,
"market_prob": 0.4213,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4265
},
"p_final": 0.4265,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0745,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0947,
"implied_prob": 0.5787,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.573
}
},
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": -0.0014,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.46,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.226,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.54,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5269
},
"p_final": 0.4719,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0444,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4719
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1589479,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "US Mondorf-les-Bains",
"home": "Atert Bissen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4604,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1589479,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:58:07.493592+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Nacional de Luxemburgo — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | US Rumelange | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UN Käerjéng 97 | 8 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Atert Bissen | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | UNA Strassen | 8 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | Résidence Walferdange | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | US Mondorf-les-Bains | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 | US Hostert | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Wiltz 71 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 |
| 13 | F91 Dudelange | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 |
