The model missed the final outcome (Torquay United win 0–4).
The model had projected Maidenhead at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Maidenhead Torquay United ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead | 36.1% | 33.0% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.6% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Torquay United | 34.2% | 38.4% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Torquay United win 0–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Maidenhead; match finished Torquay United
Market lesson
The full-time result was Torquay United win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maidenhead 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Torquay United 34.2%
- xG · Maidenhead 1.32 — Torquay United 1.28
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Maidenhead 2.81 · Draw 3.25 · Torquay United 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Maidenhead 33.0% · Draw 28.6% · Torquay United 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maidenhead 2.81 · Draw 3.25 · Torquay United 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Maidenhead 33.0% · Draw 28.6% · Torquay United 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Torquay United win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
27/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Torquay United win · Maidenhead 0–4 Torquay United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0346,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"alert_team": "Maidenhead",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.14,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
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"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
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"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidenhead at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidenhead as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidenhead",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0346,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.14,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"steam_team": "Maidenhead",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidenhead at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidenhead as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidenhead",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0346,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maidenhead 1.32 xG vs Torquay United 1.28 \u2192 Maidenhead 36.1%",
"Market: Torquay United ~33.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Maidenhead odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maidenhead, but the market has moved away from Maidenhead.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Maidenhead",
"market_prob": 33.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Torquay United",
"market_prob": 38.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Torquay United",
"market_prob_pct": 38.38,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Maidenhead"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maidenhead",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maidenhead 1.32 xG vs Torquay United 1.28 \u2192 Maidenhead 36.1%",
"Market: Torquay United ~33.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Maidenhead odds \u2191 +3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maidenhead, but the market has moved away from Maidenhead.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.14,
"hero_label": "Torquay United",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Maidenhead odds lengthened \u2191 +3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Maidenhead has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Maidenhead has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Maidenhead has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Torquay United",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.06,
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maidenhead",
"market_prob_pct": 33.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.07,
"edge_pp": 1.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.14,
"edge_pp": -4.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Torquay United",
"market_prob_pct": 38.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Torquay United (33.0%).",
"Maidenhead odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.1%, 7/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maidenhead, Market \u2192 Torquay United, while Maidenhead odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.32,
"closing_odds": 2.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.32,
"entry_odds": 2.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Maidenhead (swing 2.82 \u2192 2.52 \u2192 2.70) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.81",
"2.71",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.82 \u2192 2.52 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 26m",
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.82"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.52"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.81,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Market moved away from Maidenhead while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Maidenhead",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Maidenhead",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Maidenhead",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "torquay",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Torquay United",
"away_team_id": 1827,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1827.webp",
"away_team_name": "Torquay United",
"away_team_public_id": "0NakyRjkQSTzS5",
"away_team_slug": "torquay",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588347,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Maidenhead",
"home_team_id": 1838,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1838.webp",
"home_team_name": "Maidenhead",
"home_team_public_id": "2gwrbGYWiMV0Pm",
"home_team_slug": "maidenhead",
"ht.home_team_slug": "maidenhead",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - Sur",
"league_id": 51,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/51.webp",
"league_name": "National League - Sur",
"league_public_id": "1CLb0HhHXqBxus",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2wYxGVyfJ5XbQB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Maidenhead",
"venue_name": "York Road"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4221,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.3838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3838,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.3305
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3663
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.2858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3838,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.3305
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.289
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4295,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0346,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3838,
"draw": 0.2858,
"home": 0.3305
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3436
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0708,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": 0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2239,
"alpha_yes": 0.2463,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0373,
"edge_yes": -0.0373,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0608,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"implied_no": 0.4177,
"implied_yes": 0.5823,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2239,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4201,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4279
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2463,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.5799,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5713
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4279,
"p_final_yes": 0.5713,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2394,
"alpha_under": 0.2176,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.975,
"edge_over": -0.0548,
"edge_under": 0.0548,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0581,
"implied_over": 0.5368,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5345,
"implied_under": 0.4632,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4655,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5345,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5219
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.4655,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4769
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5219,
"p_final_under": 0.4769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maidenhead at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maidenhead as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maidenhead",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maidenhead, but the model still strongly favours Maidenhead.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.0141,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
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"ev": -0.0346,
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Maidenhead"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
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"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0608,
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},
"p_final": 0.4279,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0608,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0086,
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},
"edge": 0.0373,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0114,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0581,
"under": {
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588347,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Torquay United",
"home": "Maidenhead"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.0141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588347,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T18:46:41.893298+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - Sur — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover Athletic | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Maidstone United | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Salisbury | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesham United | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 9 | Dover Athletic | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Braintree | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Truro City | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 13 | Farnham Town | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Horsham | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Slough Town | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 |
| 19 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maidenhead | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 22 | Farnborough | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
