The model missed the final outcome (Billericay Town win 1–2).
The model had projected Chesham United at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Chesham United Billericay Town ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham United | 39.0% | 48.1% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.2% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Billericay Town | 31.5% | 25.7% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Chesham United's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Billericay Town win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chesham United by 9.1 percentage points (48.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chesham United 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Billericay Town 31.5%
- xG · Chesham United 1.38 — Billericay Town 1.22
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chesham United 1.93 · Draw 3.54 · Billericay Town 3.61
- Implied 1X2 · Chesham United 48.1% · Draw 26.2% · Billericay Town 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Chesham United 1.93 · Draw 3.54 · Billericay Town 3.61
- Implied 1X2 · Chesham United 48.1% · Draw 26.2% · Billericay Town 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Billericay Town win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Billericay Town win · Chesham United 1–2 Billericay Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0148,
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"text": "-1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chesham United",
"sort_key": 1796.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "Billericay Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.11,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 48.1,
"market_team": "Chesham United",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Chesham United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chesham United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588341 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1632,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6923076923076923,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.11,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "Billericay Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chesham United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588341 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1632,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.38 xG vs Billericay Town 1.22 \u2192 Chesham United 39.0%",
"Market: Chesham United ~48.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Billericay Town \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Billericay Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.11,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob": 48.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.77,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Billericay Town",
"market_prob": 25.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.76,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.76,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 48.08,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Billericay Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Chesham United\u0027s win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chesham United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chesham United 1.38 xG vs Billericay Town 1.22 \u2192 Chesham United 39.0%",
"Market: Chesham United ~48.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Billericay Town \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chesham United, but sharp money moved toward Billericay Town.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.11,
"hero_label": "Chesham United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Billericay Town odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Billericay Town, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Billericay Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Chesham United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Billericay Town, with odds shortening by 8.3%.",
"Buying interest on Billericay Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Chesham United above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Billericay Town has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.3%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Chesham United",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Chesham United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.11,
"edge_pp": -9.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chesham United",
"market_prob_pct": 48.08,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.33,
"edge_pp": 3.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.21,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.77,
"edge_pp": 5.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Billericay Town",
"market_prob_pct": 25.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Billericay Town \u2014 odds shortened by 8.3%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chesham United (48.1%).",
"However, Billericay Town has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.3%, 9/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chesham United, Market \u2192 Chesham United, Recent sharp money \u2192 Billericay Town.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Billericay Town (8.3%, 9/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.61",
"3.46",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.91 \u2192 3.02 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 26m",
"pick_team": "Billericay Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.91"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.61,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.6 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.61"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/13 sportsbooks on Billericay Town",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Billericay Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Billericay Town while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Billericay Town",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Billericay Town",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Billericay Town",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "billericay-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Billericay Town",
"away_team_id": 4678,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4678.webp",
"away_team_name": "Billericay Town",
"away_team_public_id": "3QlFuFtewaWplr",
"away_team_slug": "billericay-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1588341,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_id": 4702,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4702.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chesham United",
"home_team_public_id": "5HOPEDAO6k94xU",
"home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chesham-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - Sur",
"league_id": 51,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/51.webp",
"league_name": "National League - Sur",
"league_public_id": "1CLb0HhHXqBxus",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 18:45:00",
"public_id": "1UUzMqD6KuJdWB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chesham",
"venue_name": "The Meadow"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.274,
"best_odd": 3.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0148,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2571,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4808
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.2621,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2571,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4808
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2716
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.518,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1632,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2571,
"draw": 0.2621,
"home": 0.4808
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4336
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.61,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.1369,
"implied_prob": 0.277,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": 0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1285,
"ev": -0.2479,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2283,
"alpha_yes": 0.2511,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0176,
"edge_yes": -0.0176,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0744,
"ev_yes": -0.0589,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_no": 0.4384,
"implied_yes": 0.5616,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4387
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2511,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5664,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5608
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4387,
"p_final_yes": 0.5608,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2393,
"alpha_under": 0.2175,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.735,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.995,
"edge_over": -0.0501,
"edge_under": 0.0501,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.094,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0491,
"implied_over": 0.5321,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5349,
"implied_under": 0.4679,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4651,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2393,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5222
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2175,
"best_odd": 1.995,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4766
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5222,
"p_final_under": 0.4766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1369,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chesham United at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chesham United as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chesham United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Chesham United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +14% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1588341 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +14% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Billericay Town, but the model still strongly favours Chesham United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1632,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1632,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chesham United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0051,
"market_prob": 0.4336,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2283,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0744,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4387
},
"p_final": 0.4387,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0744,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2511,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5664,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5608
}
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2175,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.995,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.4651,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2393,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.094,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5222
},
"p_final": 0.4766,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0491,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2175,
"best_odd": 1.995,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4766
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0501,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1588341,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Billericay Town",
"home": "Chesham United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1632,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2479,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1588341,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T18:46:03.865840+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - Sur — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone United | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover Athletic | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Maidstone United | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Salisbury | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesham United | 9 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 9 | Dover Athletic | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Torquay United | 9 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | Braintree | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Truro City | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 13 | Farnham Town | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 14 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Horsham | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Slough Town | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 3 |
| 19 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maidenhead | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 22 | Farnborough | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
