AI correctly predicted the Spalding United win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Spalding United Spalding United ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United | 36.6% | 49.1% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.6% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Bedford Town | 33.8% | 24.3% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Spalding United's win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Spalding United win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Spalding United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Spalding United higher (49.1% vs model 36.6%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Spalding United win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spalding United 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Bedford Town 33.8%
- xG · Spalding United 1.33 — Bedford Town 1.27
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spalding United 1.89 · Draw 3.48 · Bedford Town 3.82
- Implied 1X2 · Spalding United 49.1% · Draw 26.6% · Bedford Town 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Spalding United 1.89 · Draw 3.48 · Bedford Town 3.82
- Implied 1X2 · Spalding United 49.1% · Draw 26.6% · Bedford Town 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spalding United win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
37/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Spalding United win · Spalding United 2–1 Bedford Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
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{
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},
{
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{
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"label": "Reason",
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}
],
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},
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},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Spalding United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1587810 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1875,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3083,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.48,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Spalding United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2894,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Spalding United at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Spalding United as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Spalding United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Spalding United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1587810 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1875,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3083,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Spalding United 1.33 xG vs Bedford Town 1.27 \u2192 Spalding United 36.6%",
"Market: Spalding United ~49.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Spalding United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Spalding United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.48,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Spalding United",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.49,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Bedford Town",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Spalding United",
"market_prob_pct": 49.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Spalding United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Spalding United\u0027s win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Spalding United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Spalding United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Spalding United 1.33 xG vs Bedford Town 1.27 \u2192 Spalding United 36.6%",
"Market: Spalding United ~49.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Spalding United +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Spalding United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.48,
"hero_label": "Spalding United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Spalding United than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Spalding United.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Spalding United than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Spalding United."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Spalding United more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Spalding United (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Spalding United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Spalding United",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Spalding United higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.48,
"edge_pp": -12.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Spalding United",
"market_prob_pct": 49.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.99,
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.49,
"edge_pp": 9.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bedford Town",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Spalding United.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Spalding United (49.1%).",
"Spalding United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Spalding United",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Spalding United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bedford-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bedford Town",
"away_team_id": 7616,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7616.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bedford Town",
"away_team_public_id": "5T55RDoJ9USosA",
"away_team_slug": "bedford-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1587810,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Spalding United",
"home_team_id": 7671,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7671.webp",
"home_team_name": "Spalding United",
"home_team_public_id": "3nR1QIbCxNK1eI",
"home_team_slug": "spalding-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "spalding-united",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League - Norte",
"league_id": 50,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/50.webp",
"league_name": "National League - Norte",
"league_public_id": "2WdcML7oJFLxtC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "05XRuLbWkylw40",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Sir Halley Stewart Playing Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2574,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0244,
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.2665,
"home": 0.4907
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2672
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2865,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.2665,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.2665,
"home": 0.4907
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2751
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4877,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.1875,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.2665,
"home": 0.4907
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4299
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0758,
"ev": 0.2894,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.1631,
"ev": -0.3083,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2168,
"alpha_yes": 0.2385,
"best_no_odd": 2.16,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0228,
"edge_yes": -0.0228,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0172,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0693,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0899,
"implied_no": 0.4322,
"implied_yes": 0.5678,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0053,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.4307,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4359
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2385,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0899,
"implied_prob": 0.5693,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5635
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4359,
"p_final_yes": 0.5635,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2244,
"alpha_under": 0.204,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.03,
"edge_over": -0.0625,
"edge_under": 0.0625,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0985,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.049,
"implied_over": 0.5445,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5442,
"implied_under": 0.4555,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4558,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.204,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4685
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5303,
"p_final_under": 0.4685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2894,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2894,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Spalding United at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Spalding United as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Spalding United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Spalding United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1587810 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Spalding United).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1875,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3083,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bedford Town",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.1875,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Spalding United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0053,
"market_prob": 0.4307,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2168,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0053,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.4307,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4359
},
"p_final": 0.4359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0693,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2385,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0899,
"implied_prob": 0.5693,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5635
}
},
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.4322,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.204,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4558,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5442,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5303
},
"p_final": 0.4685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.049,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.204,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.049,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4685
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0625,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1587810,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bedford Town",
"home": "Spalding United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1875,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3083,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1587810,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:09:29.158747+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National League - Norte — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford Town | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley Town | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Buxton | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Chorley | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 9 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Morecambe | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hednesford Town | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Macclesfield | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 14 | Southport | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Chester | 9 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 19 | South Shields | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 17 |
| 20 | Worksop Town | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 21 | Spennymoor Town | 9 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 9 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Radcliffe | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 24 | Brackley Town | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
