The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Paderborn II at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Paderborn II Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn II | 37.5% | 29.1% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Borussia Dortmund II | 32.9% | 45.1% | -12.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Paderborn II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Paderborn II by 12.3 percentage points (49.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Paderborn II 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Borussia Dortmund II 32.9%
- xG · Paderborn II 1.35 — Borussia Dortmund II 1.25
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 3.15 · Draw 3.56 · Borussia Dortmund II 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 29.1% · Draw 25.8% · Borussia Dortmund II 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Paderborn II 3.15 · Draw 3.56 · Borussia Dortmund II 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Paderborn II 29.1% · Draw 25.8% · Borussia Dortmund II 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Paderborn II 1–1 Borussia Dortmund II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0135,
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"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
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"text": "-1.4%"
},
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"sort_key": 1796.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"alert_team": "Paderborn II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paderborn II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paderborn II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paderborn II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1835,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.3,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Paderborn II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paderborn II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paderborn II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paderborn II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1835,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paderborn II 1.35 xG vs Borussia Dortmund II 1.25 \u2192 Paderborn II 37.5%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund II ~29.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Paderborn II odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paderborn II, but the market has moved away from Paderborn II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Paderborn II",
"market_prob": 29.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.86,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.3,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob": 45.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.93,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.93,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.67,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.67,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.15,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Paderborn II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Borussia Dortmund II\u0027s win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Paderborn II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paderborn II 1.35 xG vs Borussia Dortmund II 1.25 \u2192 Paderborn II 37.5%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund II ~29.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Paderborn II odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paderborn II, but the market has moved away from Paderborn II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.3,
"hero_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Paderborn II odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Paderborn II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Paderborn II \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Borussia Dortmund II than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Paderborn II has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Paderborn II \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Borussia Dortmund II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Paderborn II has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Paderborn II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Borussia Dortmund II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.44,
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Paderborn II",
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.86,
"edge_pp": 3.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.3,
"edge_pp": -12.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"market_prob_pct": 45.15,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Paderborn II \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Borussia Dortmund II (29.1%).",
"However, Paderborn II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.4%, 5/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Paderborn II, Market \u2192 Borussia Dortmund II, while Paderborn II odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.94,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Paderborn II (5.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.15",
"2.97",
"2.79"
],
"display": "2.94 \u2192 2.73 \u2192 2.94",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 43m",
"pick_team": "Paderborn II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.94"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.79,
3.15,
2.94
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.94"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.79,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/5 sportsbooks on Paderborn II",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Paderborn II",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.94,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 2.79,
"summary": "Market moved away from Paderborn II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Paderborn II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.94,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 2.79,
"pick_team": "Paderborn II",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Paderborn II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"away_team_id": 9367,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9367.webp",
"away_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"away_team_public_id": "2CfplpkSH0qRK5",
"away_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund-ii",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1587475,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Paderborn II",
"home_team_id": 12827,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12827.webp",
"home_team_name": "Paderborn II",
"home_team_public_id": "2DoB316l3XcERb",
"home_team_slug": "paderborn-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "paderborn-ii",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Oeste",
"league_id": 87,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/87.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Oeste",
"league_public_id": "4CdAHct6OG7LSV",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-21 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0uCOusYzgVgw1e",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3671,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0451,
"ev": -0.1749,
"implied_prob": 0.4515,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4515,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.291
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4064
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2828,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.2575,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4515,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.291
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2683
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2619,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4515,
"draw": 0.2575,
"home": 0.291
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3132
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1639,
"ev": -0.3327,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.1833,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1563,
"alpha_yes": 0.215,
"best_no_odd": 2.52,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0867,
"edge_yes": -0.0867,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1466,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.055,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1161,
"implied_no": 0.3683,
"implied_yes": 0.6317,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3811
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.6327,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6138
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3811,
"p_final_yes": 0.6138,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2031,
"alpha_under": 0.1477,
"best_over_odd": 1.54,
"best_under_odd": 2.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.51,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1193,
"edge_under": 0.1193,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2577,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1283,
"ev_under": 0.2225,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0513,
"implied_over": 0.6013,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6016,
"implied_under": 0.3987,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3984,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5773
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4161
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5773,
"p_final_under": 0.4161,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paderborn II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paderborn II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paderborn II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Paderborn II, but the model still strongly favours Paderborn II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1835,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0135,
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Paderborn II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.3673,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3811
},
"p_final": 0.3811,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.6327,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6138
}
},
"edge": 0.0867,
"ev": 0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.3683,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.3984,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.6016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5773
},
"p_final": 0.4161,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1477,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4161
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1193,
"ev": 0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1587475,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2225,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.3683,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.3683,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Borussia Dortmund II",
"home": "Paderborn II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.080679,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0135,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1835,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1587475,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T16:00:33.663514+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Oeste — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-Weiß Oberhausen | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Borussia Mönchengladbach II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Gütersloh | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Westfalia Rhynern | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Bergisch Gladbach | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Colonia II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Paderborn II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 12 | Bonner SC | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Hilden | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 15 | Bochum II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | Wiedenbrück | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | SV Rödinghausen | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-Weiß Oberhausen | 10 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach II | 10 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Gütersloh | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Bocholt | 10 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 13 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund II | 10 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 22 |
| 6 | Schalke 04 II | 10 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Colonia II | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Paderborn II | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Bonner SC | 10 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Westfalia Rhynern | 10 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Bergisch Gladbach | 10 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 10 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | SV Rödinghausen | 10 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Wiedenbrück | 9 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Hilden | 10 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Bochum II | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 10 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 3 |
