The model missed the final outcome (FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 3–4).
The model had projected Lokomotive Leipzig at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (7 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Lokomotive Leipzig FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotive Leipzig | 39.9% | 35.5% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.6% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 30.6% | 39.8% | -9.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt's win probability at 39.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 3–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lokomotive Leipzig by 9.3 percentage points (49.2% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lokomotive Leipzig 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 30.6%
- xG · Lokomotive Leipzig 1.40 — FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1.20
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotive Leipzig 2.58 · Draw 3.72 · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotive Leipzig 35.5% · Draw 24.6% · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotive Leipzig 2.58 · Draw 3.72 · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotive Leipzig 35.5% · Draw 24.6% · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 39.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.3
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win · Lokomotive Leipzig 3–4 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0354,
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},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
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"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0354,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.26,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.2%",
"steam_team": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0354,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomotive Leipzig 1.40 xG vs FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt 1.20 \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig 39.9%",
"Market: FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Lokomotive Leipzig odds \u2191 +1.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lokomotive Leipzig, but the market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.42,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"market_prob": 35.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.26,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"market_prob": 39.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.52,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"market_prob_pct": 39.84,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt\u0027s win probability at 39.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomotive Leipzig 1.40 xG vs FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt 1.20 \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig 39.9%",
"Market: FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Lokomotive Leipzig odds \u2191 +1.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lokomotive Leipzig, but the market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.26,
"hero_label": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Lokomotive Leipzig odds lengthened \u2191 +1.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Lokomotive Leipzig has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Lokomotive Leipzig has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (0/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Lokomotive Leipzig has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/4), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.42,
"edge_pp": 4.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"market_prob_pct": 35.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.84,
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.26,
"edge_pp": -9.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"market_prob_pct": 39.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt (35.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lokomotive Leipzig, Market \u2192 FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.48,
"closing_odds": 2.3,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.48,
"entry_odds": 2.3,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/4",
"current_odds": 2.58,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.2%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"steam_score": 5,
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-rot-wei-erfurt",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"away_team_id": 1329,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1329.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"away_team_public_id": "0Gk7O03TxgCbyb",
"away_team_slug": "fc-rot-wei-erfurt",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1586882,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"home_team_id": 9355,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9355.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"home_team_public_id": "4oeHcabDJNowIa",
"home_team_slug": "lokomotive-leipzig",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lokomotive-leipzig",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_id": 85,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/85.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Nordost",
"league_public_id": "1WJdi4c2f3zSMM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "20VdyNrvnrq8vl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3873,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.036,
"ev": -0.1663,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.3552
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3625
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2782,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0335,
"implied_prob": 0.2464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.3552
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2598
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.42,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3984,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.3552
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3739
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.1292,
"ev": -0.2972,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": 0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.156,
"alpha_yes": 0.2146,
"best_no_odd": 2.53,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0852,
"edge_yes": -0.0852,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1562,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0561,
"ev_yes": -0.2018,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1177,
"implied_no": 0.3718,
"implied_yes": 0.6282,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.3683,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.6317,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3821,
"p_final_yes": 0.6127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2025,
"alpha_under": 0.1473,
"best_over_odd": 1.54,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": -0.119,
"edge_under": 0.119,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2577,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1205,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.042,
"implied_over": 0.601,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6031,
"implied_under": 0.399,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3969,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5786,
"p_final_under": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomotive Leipzig at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomotive Leipzig as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomotive Leipzig",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lokomotive Leipzig, but the model still strongly favours Lokomotive Leipzig.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0354,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lokomotive Leipzig"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.3683,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.3683,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3821
},
"p_final": 0.3821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0561,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.6317,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6127
}
},
"edge": 0.0852,
"ev": 0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.3969,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"p_final": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.119,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.399,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1586882,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.3718,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Rot-Wei\u00df Erfurt",
"home": "Lokomotive Leipzig"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.399,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0354,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0312,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586882,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:58:45.847219+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Nordost — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 12 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Hertha Berlín II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 36 | 11 | +25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 26 |
| 3 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | BFC Dynamo | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | Altglienicke | 11 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 7 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 9 | Erzgebirge Aue | 10 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 10 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
| 11 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 6 |
| 13 | Tasmania Berlin | 11 | 13 | 36 | -23 | 5 |
| 14 | FSV Zwickau | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 10 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Hertha Berlín II | 10 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
