AI correctly predicted the Worthing win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Worthing Worthing ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 35.6% | 43.3% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| FC Halifax Town | 34.7% | 30.6% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Worthing's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Worthing win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Worthing. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Worthing higher (43.2% vs model 35.6%, 7.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Worthing win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Worthing 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · FC Halifax Town 34.7%
- xG · Worthing 1.31 — FC Halifax Town 1.29
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Worthing 2.20 · Draw 3.65 · FC Halifax Town 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · Worthing 43.3% · Draw 26.1% · FC Halifax Town 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Worthing 2.20 · Draw 3.65 · FC Halifax Town 3.11
- Implied 1X2 · Worthing 43.3% · Draw 26.1% · FC Halifax Town 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Worthing win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
61/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Worthing win · Worthing 2–1 FC Halifax Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9539102e5ceb182c2bceed06a3e2cb5d4ee0d4ecdca48130675f0e2f4b4098f8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Worthing or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Worthing"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Worthing",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0769,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.2
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Worthing Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.31,
"market_odds": 2.2,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -9.9,
"value_pct": -21.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Worthing or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Worthing or FC Halifax Town",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Halifax Town",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Worthing or FC Halifax Town",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Worthing"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.0,
"implied_prob": 27.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC Halifax Town",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.62,
"draw": 26.09,
"home": 43.29
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:04:36",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:42:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Worthing",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.29,
"gap_pp": -7.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.09,
"gap_pp": 3.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.62,
"gap_pp": 4.11,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.14,
"gap_pp": -10.94,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.86,
"gap_pp": 10.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.29,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.09,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.11,
"early": 3.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.14,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.86,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.6,
"ev": -0.0424,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.6,
"market_prob": 0.1316,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0161,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4113,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5665
},
"p_final": 0.4274,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1603,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0426,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4274
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.4,
"text": "-22.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0117,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"p_final": 0.3937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0966,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6019
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.0,
"text": "+16.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1603,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10144.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.5,
"text": "-11.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0105,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Worthing",
"sort_key": 1797.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.65,
"hero_label": "Worthing",
"market_prob_pct": 43.3,
"market_team": "Worthing",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Worthing",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worthing at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worthing as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worthing",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1151,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.65,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.65,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worthing at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worthing as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worthing",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1151,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Worthing 1.31 xG vs FC Halifax Town 1.29 \u2192 Worthing 35.6%",
"Market: Worthing ~43.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Worthing, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.65,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Worthing",
"market_prob": 43.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.56,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "FC Halifax Town",
"market_prob": 30.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.48,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.48,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Worthing",
"market_prob_pct": 43.29,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Worthing\u0027s win probability at 43.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.65,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Worthing",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Worthing 1.31 xG vs FC Halifax Town 1.29 \u2192 Worthing 35.6%",
"Market: Worthing ~43.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -2.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Worthing, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.65,
"hero_label": "Worthing",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -2.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Worthing. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Worthing. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.7%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Worthing above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.65,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Worthing",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Worthing higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.65,
"edge_pp": -7.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Worthing",
"market_prob_pct": 43.29,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.56,
"edge_pp": 3.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.08,
"edge_pp": 4.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Halifax Town",
"market_prob_pct": 30.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Worthing (43.3%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.7%, 2/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Worthing, Market \u2192 Worthing, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.70 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 3.60) \u2014 net 2.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.65",
"3.60"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 15m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.65,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-halifax-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Halifax Town",
"away_team_id": 1841,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1841.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Halifax Town",
"away_team_public_id": "2oU1bxk0VShmN1",
"away_team_slug": "fc-halifax-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1585256,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Worthing",
"home_team_id": 7761,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7761.webp",
"home_team_name": "Worthing",
"home_team_public_id": "58aXhSqxTSjvxQ",
"home_team_slug": "worthing",
"ht.home_team_slug": "worthing",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "National League",
"league_id": 43,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/43.webp",
"league_name": "National League",
"league_public_id": "0QUTIt5OMsEkqf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1fTWP72GvWUPDg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Worthing",
"venue_name": "Sussex Transport Community Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0117,
"implied_prob": 0.3062,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3178
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2839,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.2609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2711
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3981,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0306,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4329
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4022
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.0986,
"ev": -0.2169,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1603,
"alpha_yes": 0.2204,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0748,
"edge_yes": -0.0748,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1032,
"implied_no": 0.3802,
"implied_yes": 0.6198,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6019
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3937,
"p_final_yes": 0.6019,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2079,
"alpha_under": 0.1512,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.565,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": -0.1084,
"edge_under": 0.1084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1134,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0426,
"implied_over": 0.5904,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5887,
"implied_under": 0.4096,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4113,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5665
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4274
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5665,
"p_final_under": 0.4274,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Worthing at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Worthing as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Worthing",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Worthing.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1151,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0306,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Worthing"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"p_final": 0.3937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6019
}
},
"edge": 0.0748,
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0161,
"market_prob": 0.4113,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1134,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5665
},
"p_final": 0.4274,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0426,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1512,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.4113,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4274
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1084,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1585256,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Halifax Town",
"home": "Worthing"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4096,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1151,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45454545454545453,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.217,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1585256,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:04:38.274335+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Worthing & FC Halifax Town!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
National League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sutton United | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Altrincham | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | Worthing | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 15 | Boston United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Carlisle United | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 | Barrow | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 | Woking | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 21 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Southend United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 9 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Worthing | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Carlisle United | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Tamworth FC | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Kidderminster Harriers | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 11 | Boston United | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 9 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | AFC Hornchurch | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 | Barrow | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe United | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Aldershot Town | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 20 | Sutton United | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 21 | Woking | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
