The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Amed at 53.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Amed Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.05) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Amed; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 07:16 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Genclerbirligi 1.16 — Amed 1.89
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Genclerbirligi 2–2 Amed
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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},
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},
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{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"alert_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Amed",
"model_prob_pct": 53.1,
"model_team": "Amed",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1738,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Amed at 53.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Amed as the value side (53.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Amed",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Amed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584426 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.468384074941452,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1339,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 40.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.73"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.73
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.89,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 40.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.89,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.89 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +40%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"steam_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1738,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Amed at 53.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Amed as the value side (53.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Amed",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Amed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584426 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.468384074941452,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1339,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 40.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.73"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.73
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Genclerbirligi 1.16 xG vs Amed 1.89 \u2192 Amed 53.1%",
"Market Drift: Genclerbirligi odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Amed projects stronger on expected goals (+0.73 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.84,
"label": "Genclerbirligi",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.1,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 53.06,
"label": "Amed",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 58.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.19,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.66,
"fair_prob": 59.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.66,
"fair_prob": 40.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Amed",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 53.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Amed \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Genclerbirligi 1.16 xG vs Amed 1.89 \u2192 Amed 53.1%",
"Market Drift: Genclerbirligi odds \u2191 +18.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Amed projects stronger on expected goals (+0.73 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Genclerbirligi odds lengthened \u2191 +18.3%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 28.0 pp (at 53.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 28.0,
"max_prob_pct": 53.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Genclerbirligi",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Amed",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Amed (53.1%).",
"However, Genclerbirligi has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +18.3%, 10/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Amed \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.26,
"entry_odds": 3.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/10 books lengthened Genclerbirligi together (18.3% drift, score 64) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.86",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.42 \u2192 2.49 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 141h",
"pick_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Genclerbirligi odds \u2191 +18.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Genclerbirligi odds \u2191 +18.3% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Genclerbirligi",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Genclerbirligi",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Genclerbirligi",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "amed",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Amed",
"away_team_id": 3579,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3579.webp",
"away_team_name": "Amed",
"away_team_public_id": "3cjjDtUaNGXQmE",
"away_team_slug": "amed",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1584426,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Genclerbirligi",
"home_team_id": 997,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/997.webp",
"home_team_name": "Genclerbirligi",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Genclerbirligi",
"home_team_public_id": "1HMb94EAmjhgNR",
"home_team_slug": "genclerbirligi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "genclerbirligi",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
"league_id": 203,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/203.webp",
"league_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
"league_public_id": "3IdOYCd1FXl60u",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 10:30:00",
"public_id": "0slRkt0Sneejgs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ankara",
"venue_name": "Eryaman Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3839,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4332,
"draw": 0.2741,
"home": 0.2927
},
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"p_final": 0.4708
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2896,
"best_odd": 3.375,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.2741,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4332,
"draw": 0.2741,
"home": 0.2927
},
"model_prob": 0.2509,
"p_final": 0.2673
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2664,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.2927,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4332,
"draw": 0.2741,
"home": 0.2927
},
"model_prob": 0.218,
"p_final": 0.2728
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0786,
"ev": 0.1738,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.5311
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": -0.0216,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2509
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": -0.0744,
"ev": -0.2544,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.218
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3401,
"alpha_yes": 0.3741,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0166,
"edge_yes": 0.0166,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0385,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0879,
"ev_yes": -0.0166,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0624,
"implied_no": 0.4206,
"implied_yes": 0.5794,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3401,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.404,
"p_final": 0.4165
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"p_final": 0.5842
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4165,
"p_final_yes": 0.5842,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3741,
"alpha_under": 0.3401,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": 0.0519,
"edge_under": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0584,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0255,
"ev_under": -0.1348,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0926,
"implied_over": 0.5361,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5383,
"implied_under": 0.4639,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4617,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.5383,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3401,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.4617,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4448
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5569,
"p_final_under": 0.4448,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.05,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1738,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0584,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1738,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 73,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Amed at 53.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Amed as the value side (53.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Amed",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Amed \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.00 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584426 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.00 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Amed).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.468384074941452,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1339,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 40.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.73"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.73
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.596,
"draw_prob": 0.2509,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5311,
"over_prob": 0.588,
"total_xg": 3.05,
"under_prob": 0.412,
"xg_diff": 0.73
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Amed"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.605,
"edge": 0.0071,
"market_prob": 0.5771,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.596,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3401,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0879,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.404,
"p_final": 0.4165
},
"p_final": 0.5842,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0624,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"p_final": 0.5842
}
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0166,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.5383,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.5383,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"p_final": 0.5569,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0255,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3401,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.4617,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4448
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5361,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1584426,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0584,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5311,
"draw": 0.2509,
"home": 0.218
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Amed",
"home": "Genclerbirligi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.042924,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5361,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5311,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.468384074941452,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1339,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1584426,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T07:16:54.764764+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Süper Lig — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Kasimpasa | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Rizespor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Yeni Çorumspor | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Istanbul Başakşehir | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Genclerbirligi | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Erzurum BB | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Samsunspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Göztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Amed | 6 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Galatasaray | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Yeni Çorumspor | 6 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Göztepe | 6 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Istanbul Başakşehir | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 |
| 11 | Kasimpasa | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 13 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Samsunspor | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Genclerbirligi | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Erzurum BB | 6 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 6 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 13.6 | 4.2 | +9.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 6 | 14.1 | 5.6 | +8.5 | 13 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 6 | 9.1 | 3.0 | +6.1 | 12 |
| 4 | Amed | 6 | 11.6 | 6.2 | +5.4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 10.0 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 6 | 12.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Rizespor | 6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 10 |
| 8 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | -0.1 | 11 |
| 9 | Istanbul Başakşehir | 6 | 7.6 | 8.2 | -0.6 | 7 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 6 | 4.7 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kasimpasa | 6 | 6.9 | 8.3 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 12 | Yeni Çorumspor | 6 | 7.4 | 8.9 | -1.5 | 7 |
| 13 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 6 | 6.2 | 8.4 | -2.2 | 8 |
| 14 | Samsunspor | 6 | 6.5 | 8.9 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 15 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 6.0 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 12 |
| 16 | Erzurum BB | 6 | 3.0 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 6 | 4.8 | 12.2 | -7.4 | 3 |
| 18 | Genclerbirligi | 6 | 6.2 | 14.6 | -8.4 | 7 |
