Auditoría de predicción: 2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteño Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

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            "key": "12",
            "label": "2 de Mayo or Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
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      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-28 21:29:01",
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        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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            "label": "Disagree",
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            "pricing_aligned": false,
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            "probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
            "summary": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo."
          },
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          "best_consensus_ev": 0.0897,
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          "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
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          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
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            "snapshot": "The AI model sees 2 de Mayo at 45.1% vs market 21.2%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "AI identifies 2 de Mayo as the stronger side (45.1%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
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            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
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          "gap_pp": 23.8,
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            "Reliability below 65"
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          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "market_signal": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "2 de Mayo",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": null,
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
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                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
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              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "probability_gap",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
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                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "53 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "15 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "false"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 4,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
            "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 53,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
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          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "wait",
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          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": 0.0897,
            "consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
            "consensus_odds": 4.49,
            "disagreement_label": "Strong",
            "disagreement_level": "strong",
            "implied_prob": 0.2121,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4506,
            "raw_edge_display": "+23.8 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 23.8,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
            "raw_signal_ev": 1.0232,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.3%"
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          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 28.9,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "wait",
        "books_breadth_display": "3/13",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 68,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 13.1,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 2.3,
            "steam_coherence": 7.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 53,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 23.89,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 23.89,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.36,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 29.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.74,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.74,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.74 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +29%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "2 de Mayo",
        "suppress_execution": true,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 15,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 0,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 45,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 0,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "wait",
            "label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 23.9,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
            "summary": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "wait",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 23.9,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": false,
              "pricing_key": "low",
              "probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
              "summary": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0897,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.010234,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
            "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
            "execution_confidence": 15,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The AI model sees 2 de Mayo at 45.1% vs market 21.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "AI identifies 2 de Mayo as the stronger side (45.1%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 23.8,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u23f8",
            "label": "Wait for validation",
            "market_signal": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "2 de Mayo",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": null,
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "probability_gap",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "53 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "15 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "false"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 4,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
              "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 53,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "wait",
            "validation_ok": false,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": 0.0897,
              "consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
              "consensus_odds": 4.49,
              "disagreement_label": "Strong",
              "disagreement_level": "strong",
              "implied_prob": 0.2121,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4506,
              "raw_edge_display": "+23.8 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 23.8,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
              "raw_signal_ev": 1.0232,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.3%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 28.9,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null
            }
          },
          "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
          "tier": "wait"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: 2 de Mayo 1.74 xG vs Cerro Porte\u00f1o 1.36 \u2192 2 de Mayo 45.1%",
            "Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~21.2% implied",
            "Market Steam: 2 de Mayo +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans 2 de Mayo, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 23.89,
          "fair_prob": 45.1,
          "label": "2 de Mayo",
          "market_prob": 21.21,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.25,
          "fair_prob": 26.17,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.42,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -18.65,
          "fair_prob": 28.72,
          "label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
          "market_prob": 47.37,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 59.9,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 40.1,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 62.7,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 37.3,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 23.89,
        "fair_prob_pct": 45.1,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "2 de Mayo",
        "market_prob_pct": 21.21,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "2 de Mayo"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates 2 de Mayo\u0027s win probability at 45.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.2%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.89,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "2 de Mayo",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 21.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+23.9 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 23.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 45.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+23.9 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 23.9,
            "label": "Low convergence",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 53,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 15,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 0,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 45,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 0,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: 2 de Mayo 1.74 xG vs Cerro Porte\u00f1o 1.36 \u2192 2 de Mayo 45.1%",
              "Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~21.2% implied",
              "Market Steam: 2 de Mayo +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans 2 de Mayo, but market pricing diverges by 24 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 23.89,
        "hero_label": "2 de Mayo",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 23.89,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.4 pp (at 45.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 16.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 45.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "extreme",
          "largest_gap_label": "2 de Mayo",
          "largest_gap_pp": 23.9,
          "lead": "The model rates 2 de Mayo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "extreme",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 23.89,
            "edge_pp": 23.89,
            "fair_prob_pct": 45.1,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "2 de Mayo",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.21,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -5.25,
            "edge_pp": -5.25,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.17,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.42,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -18.65,
            "edge_pp": -18.65,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.72,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.37,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Cerro Porte\u00f1o (21.2%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 2 de Mayo, Market \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 22.27,
        "closing_odds": 4.49,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 22.27,
        "entry_odds": 4.49,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/13",
        "current_odds": 3.75,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 3.75,
        "pick_team": "2 de Mayo",
        "steam_score": 3,
        "steam_team_name": "2 de Mayo",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 23.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
      "away_team_id": 1176,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1176.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
      "away_team_slug": "cerro-porteno",
      "country_code": "PY",
      "country_display_name": "Paraguay",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
      "country_id": 125,
      "country_name": "Paraguay",
      "fixture_id": 1584339,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Paraguay",
      "home_team_display_name": "2 de Mayo",
      "home_team_id": 2140,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2140.webp",
      "home_team_name": "2 de Mayo",
      "home_team_slug": "2-de-mayo",
      "league_country": "Paraguay",
      "league_country_display": "Paraguay",
      "league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
      "league_id": 252,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
      "league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-28 21:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Pedro Juan Caballero",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3243,
            "best_odd": 2.01,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0604,
            "ev": -0.1692,
            "implied_prob": 0.4737,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4737,
              "draw": 0.3142,
              "home": 0.2121
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2875,
            "p_final": 0.4133
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2764,
            "best_odd": 3.03,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0145,
            "ev": -0.0917,
            "implied_prob": 0.3142,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4737,
              "draw": 0.3142,
              "home": 0.2121
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2619,
            "p_final": 0.2998
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1284,
            "best_odd": 4.49,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0306,
            "ev": 0.0897,
            "implied_prob": 0.2121,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4737,
              "draw": 0.3142,
              "home": 0.2121
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4506,
            "p_final": 0.2427
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.01,
            "edge": -0.21,
            "ev": -0.4222,
            "implied_prob": 0.4975,
            "model_prob": 0.2875
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.03,
            "edge": -0.0681,
            "ev": -0.2065,
            "implied_prob": 0.33,
            "model_prob": 0.2619
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 4.49,
            "edge": 0.2279,
            "ev": 1.0234,
            "implied_prob": 0.2227,
            "model_prob": 0.4506
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.1,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0897,
      "best_outlier_ev": 1.0234,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0897,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_before_guard": 5.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 3.0
      },
      "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "wait",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "wait",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 23.9,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 23.9,
          "summary": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0897,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.010234,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
        "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
        "execution_confidence": 15,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The AI model sees 2 de Mayo at 45.1% vs market 21.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "AI identifies 2 de Mayo as the stronger side (45.1%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 23.8,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u23f8",
        "label": "Wait for validation",
        "market_signal": "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "2 de Mayo",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": null,
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "probability_gap",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "53 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "15 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "false"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 4,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has repriced 2 de Mayo, but the model still strongly favours 2 de Mayo.",
          "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 53,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "wait",
        "validation_ok": false,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": 0.0897,
          "consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
          "consensus_odds": 4.49,
          "disagreement_label": "Strong",
          "disagreement_level": "strong",
          "implied_prob": 0.2121,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4506,
          "raw_edge_display": "+23.8 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 23.8,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
          "raw_signal_ev": 1.0232,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.3%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 28.9,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.627,
          "draw_prob": 0.2619,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4506,
          "over_prob": 0.599,
          "total_xg": 3.1,
          "under_prob": 0.401,
          "xg_diff": 0.38
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "guard_active": true,
      "guard_level": "extreme",
      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 4.49,
          "decision": "guard_blocked",
          "decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0306,
          "ev": 0.0897,
          "guard_blocked": true,
          "implied_prob": 0.2121,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4506,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "2 de Mayo"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.627,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.599,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1584339,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0897,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.5,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2875,
        "draw": 0.2619,
        "home": 0.4506
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": false,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
        "home": "2 de Mayo"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.032335,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0897,
        "implied_prob": 0.2121,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.4506,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "2 de Mayo",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": 0.0897,
        "consensus_ev_display": "+9.0%",
        "consensus_odds": 4.49,
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "implied_prob": 0.2121,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4506,
        "raw_edge_display": "+23.8 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 23.8,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
        "raw_signal_ev": 1.0232,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+102.3%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1584339,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-28T21:29:06.453304+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}