AI correctly predicted the Fortuna Köln win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havelse | 32.4% | 34.0% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.2% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Fortuna Köln | 38.0% | 39.7% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Fortuna Köln win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fortuna Köln win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Havelse 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Fortuna Köln 38.0%
- xG · Havelse 1.24 — Fortuna Köln 1.36
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Havelse 3.01 · Draw 3.61 · Fortuna Köln 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Havelse 31.1% · Draw 25.9% · Fortuna Köln 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Havelse 2.80 · Draw 3.63 · Fortuna Köln 2.40
- Implied 1X2 · Havelse 34.0% · Draw 26.2% · Fortuna Köln 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fortuna Köln win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fortuna Köln win · Havelse 1–3 Fortuna Köln
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "79cb0facea3306bf96efd904ed5ba14d278018f4dd2b05735f925cf0d9f696ee",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0168,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3971,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.52,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": -3.6,
"value_pct": -8.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Havelse or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Havelse or Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Havelse or Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.4,
"implied_prob": 27.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.63
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.71,
"draw": 26.25,
"home": 34.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 16:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:34:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Havelse",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.24,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.04,
"gap_pp": -1.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.25,
"gap_pp": 3.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.71,
"gap_pp": -1.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.81,
"gap_pp": -7.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.19,
"gap_pp": 7.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.8,
"early": 3.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.93,
"implied_early_pct": 31.11,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.63,
"early": 3.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.32,
"implied_early_pct": 25.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.71,
"implied_delta_pp": -3.24,
"implied_early_pct": 42.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.22,
"implied_early_pct": 54.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.19,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.22,
"implied_early_pct": 45.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.4,
"ev": -0.1,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0154,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5383
},
"p_final": 0.4601,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0671,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0521,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4601
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.142,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.2,
"text": "-14.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.9,
"text": "+11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1189,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10257.01,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4071,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.4071,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4153
},
"p_final": 0.4153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0656,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5929,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1459,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.6,
"text": "-14.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0488,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10043.92,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0646,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.5,
"text": "-6.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0124,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"sort_key": 1796.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"alert_team": "Havelse",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.34,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"market_team": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortuna K\u00f6ln at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortuna K\u00f6ln as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.34,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"steam_team": "Havelse",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortuna K\u00f6ln at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortuna K\u00f6ln as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havelse 1.24 xG vs Fortuna K\u00f6ln 1.36 \u2192 Fortuna K\u00f6ln 38.0%",
"Market: Fortuna K\u00f6ln ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Havelse \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln, but sharp money moved toward Havelse.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.65,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Havelse",
"market_prob": 34.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"market_prob": 39.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.91,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.91,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.8,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.8,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.25,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Havelse"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havelse 1.24 xG vs Fortuna K\u00f6ln 1.36 \u2192 Fortuna K\u00f6ln 38.0%",
"Market: Fortuna K\u00f6ln ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Havelse \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln, but sharp money moved toward Havelse.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.34,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Havelse odds shortened \u2193 -7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Havelse, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Havelse \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Havelse, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"Buying interest on Havelse \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Havelse has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Havelse."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.65,
"edge_pp": -1.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Havelse",
"market_prob_pct": 34.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.34,
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.7,
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"market_prob_pct": 39.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Havelse \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fortuna K\u00f6ln (39.7%).",
"However, Havelse has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.1%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fortuna K\u00f6ln, Market \u2192 Fortuna K\u00f6ln, Recent sharp money \u2192 Havelse.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.55,
"closing_odds": 3.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.55,
"entry_odds": 3.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 7m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Havelse (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.01",
"2.80",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.01 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 7m",
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.01,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.2 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/9 sportsbooks on Havelse",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Havelse while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Havelse",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Havelse",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Havelse",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortuna-koln",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"away_team_id": 1326,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1326.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"away_team_public_id": "3AnX63ojHUO9Dv",
"away_team_slug": "fortuna-koln",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1584010,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Havelse",
"home_team_id": 9342,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9342.webp",
"home_team_name": "Havelse",
"home_team_public_id": "1MoCafzpng3eNg",
"home_team_slug": "havelse",
"ht.home_team_slug": "havelse",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 17:00:00",
"public_id": "31yhp8jMHfRQ36",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Hannover",
"venue_name": "Eilenriedestadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4387,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3971,
"draw": 0.2625,
"home": 0.3404
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0124,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3971,
"draw": 0.2625,
"home": 0.3404
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2721
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4388,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3971,
"draw": 0.2625,
"home": 0.3404
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3331
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0363,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1668,
"alpha_yes": 0.2294,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.048,
"edge_yes": -0.048,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0656,
"ev_yes": -0.1459,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"implied_no": 0.408,
"implied_yes": 0.592,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.4071,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4153
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5929,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4153,
"p_final_yes": 0.5817,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2313,
"alpha_under": 0.2103,
"best_over_odd": 1.78,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0691,
"edge_under": 0.0691,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.142,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1118,
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0521,
"implied_over": 0.5511,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5553,
"implied_under": 0.4489,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5383
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4601
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5383,
"p_final_under": 0.4601,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortuna K\u00f6ln at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortuna K\u00f6ln as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Havelse, but the model still strongly favours Fortuna K\u00f6ln.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4071,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.4071,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4153
},
"p_final": 0.4153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0656,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5929,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"edge": 0.048,
"ev": 0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.408,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2313,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5383
},
"p_final": 0.4601,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0521,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0521,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4601
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0691,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1584010,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1189,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortuna K\u00f6ln",
"home": "Havelse"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0646,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1584010,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T16:59:07.011590+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Havelse & Fortuna Köln!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
3. Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
