The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Alemannia Aachen at 40.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Alemannia Aachen Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen | 40.1% | 53.0% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.2% | 22.9% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 35.6% | 24.1% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Alemannia Aachen's win probability at 53.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.59) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Alemannia Aachen; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Alemannia Aachen by 12.9 percentage points (53.0% vs model 40.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alemannia Aachen 40.1% · Draw 24.3% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 35.6%
- xG · Alemannia Aachen 1.85 — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Alemannia Aachen 1.79 · Draw 4.14 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Alemannia Aachen 53.0% · Draw 22.9% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Alemannia Aachen 1.79 · Draw 4.14 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Alemannia Aachen 53.0% · Draw 22.9% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 24.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
35/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Alemannia Aachen 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
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"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Alemannia Aachen \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583984 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.86,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.86,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.74,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.85,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.85,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.74 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +37%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.06,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3983,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemannia Aachen at 40.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemannia Aachen as the value side (40.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemannia Aachen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Alemannia Aachen \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583984 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alemannia Aachen 1.85 xG vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74 \u2192 Alemannia Aachen 40.1%",
"Market: Alemannia Aachen ~53.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Alemannia Aachen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alemannia Aachen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.86,
"fair_prob": 40.11,
"label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"market_prob": 52.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob": 24.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.52,
"fair_prob": 35.65,
"label": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
"market_prob": 24.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob": 69.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.22,
"fair_prob": 30.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.24,
"fair_prob": 70.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.24,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"market_prob_pct": 52.97,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Alemannia Aachen\u0027s win probability at 53.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.86,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Alemannia Aachen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Alemannia Aachen 1.85 xG vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.74 \u2192 Alemannia Aachen 40.1%",
"Market: Alemannia Aachen ~53.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Alemannia Aachen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Alemannia Aachen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.86,
"hero_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Alemannia Aachen more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Alemannia Aachen (pricing gap 12.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.86,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.5 pp (at 40.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.5,
"max_prob_pct": 40.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Alemannia Aachen higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.86,
"edge_pp": -12.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Alemannia Aachen",
"market_prob_pct": 52.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.35,
"edge_pp": 1.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.52,
"edge_pp": 11.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
"market_prob_pct": 24.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Alemannia Aachen than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Alemannia Aachen (53.0%).",
"Alemannia Aachen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.87,
"closing_odds": 1.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.87,
"entry_odds": 1.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"pick_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ssv-jahn-regensburg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
"away_team_id": 177,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/177.webp",
"away_team_name": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
"away_team_public_id": "5vNgoCQzcN6ggH",
"away_team_slug": "ssv-jahn-regensburg",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1583984,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"home_team_id": 4259,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4259.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
"home_team_public_id": "3M3VXhNE31hWIK",
"home_team_slug": "alemannia-aachen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "alemannia-aachen",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga",
"league_id": 80,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga",
"league_public_id": "0akjle0QoiBkC3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:30:00",
"public_id": "5Ky1MHcSpz9bhb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Aachen",
"venue_name": "New Tivoli"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2485,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.2413,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2413,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.5297
},
"model_prob": 0.3558,
"p_final": 0.2697
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.229,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2413,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.5297
},
"model_prob": 0.2427,
"p_final": 0.2317
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4846,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0621,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2413,
"draw": 0.229,
"home": 0.5297
},
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"p_final": 0.4676
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.1013,
"ev": 0.3983,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.3558
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": 0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.2427
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.1571,
"ev": -0.2813,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.4015
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.25,
"alpha_yes": 0.3437,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0724,
"edge_yes": 0.0724,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2268,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.131,
"ev_yes": 0.059,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_no": 0.3664,
"implied_yes": 0.6336,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.25,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3476
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3437,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6591
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3476,
"p_final_yes": 0.6591,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3508,
"alpha_under": 0.2547,
"best_over_odd": 1.48,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.435,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.505,
"edge_over": 0.0612,
"edge_under": -0.0622,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0286,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0578,
"ev_under": -0.1974,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1261,
"implied_over": 0.6338,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6358,
"implied_under": 0.3662,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3508,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.6358,
"model_prob": 0.695,
"p_final": 0.6566
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2547,
"best_odd": 2.505,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.3642,
"model_prob": 0.304,
"p_final": 0.3489
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6566,
"p_final_under": 0.3489,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.59,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.06,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3983,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.06,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.06,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3983,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Alemannia Aachen at 40.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Alemannia Aachen as the value side (40.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Alemannia Aachen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Alemannia Aachen \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.98 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1583984 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.98 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Alemannia Aachen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.706,
"draw_prob": 0.2427,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4015,
"over_prob": 0.695,
"total_xg": 3.59,
"under_prob": 0.304,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0621,
"ev": -0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3437,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0246,
"market_prob": 0.6345,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.25,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.3476
},
"p_final": 0.6591,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3437,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"p_final": 0.6591
}
},
"edge": 0.0724,
"ev": 0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3508,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.435,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.6358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.695,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3508,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.6358,
"model_prob": 0.695,
"p_final": 0.6566
},
"p_final": 0.6566,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0578,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2547,
"best_odd": 2.505,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.3642,
"model_prob": 0.304,
"p_final": 0.3489
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0612,
"ev": 0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.6338,
"model_prob": 0.695,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1583984,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.06,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3558,
"draw": 0.2427,
"home": 0.4015
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
"home": "Alemannia Aachen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047902,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.6336,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.163,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4015,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2813,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1583984,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:30:17.868327+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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3. Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Verl | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Havelse | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
