Predicciones / Fútbol / Ucrania. Persha Liga de Ucrania / Nyva Ternopil vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Auditoría de predicción: Nyva Ternopil vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 49%

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Grado de predicción F

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correcto

Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ahrobiznes Volochysk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Mayor brecha de probabilidad: Ahrobiznes Volochysk +5.4 pp

Resultado Modelo Mercado de cierre Diferencia Señal
Nyva Ternopil 30.1% 33.4% -3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 31.5% -2.1 pp Aligned
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.4% 35.0% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.0%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ahrobiznes Volochysk by 5.4 percentage points (35.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Cronología de predicción

Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nyva Ternopil 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.5%
    • xG · Nyva Ternopil 1.19 — Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.41
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nyva Ternopil 2.66 · Draw 2.82 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Nyva Ternopil 33.4% · Draw 31.5% · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nyva Ternopil 2.66 · Draw 2.82 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Nyva Ternopil 33.4% · Draw 31.5% · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Instantánea histórica

Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.

Veredicto histórico: Observe
Decisión histórica No Primary Bet
Resultado Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidencia ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088228

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Nyva Ternopil 0–0 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Revisar preguntas frecuentes

¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.

Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 5.5,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "81 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "85 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
            "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 81,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0532,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.54,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.3502,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 4.4,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.22
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "5/7",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 22.3,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 7.1,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 81,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 5.4,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 5.4,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.41,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.19,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.41,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 85,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 72,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 72,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 5.5,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 5.5,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.8,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 85,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 5.5,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "81 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "85 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
              "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 81,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0532,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.54,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.3502,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4048,
              "raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 4.4,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.22
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Nyva Ternopil 1.19 xG vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.41 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.4%",
            "Market: Ahrobiznes Volochysk ~35.0% implied",
            "Market Steam: Nyva Ternopil +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ahrobiznes Volochysk with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.3,
          "fair_prob": 30.14,
          "label": "Nyva Ternopil",
          "market_prob": 33.44,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.1,
          "fair_prob": 29.44,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.54,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.4,
          "fair_prob": 40.42,
          "label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
          "market_prob": 35.02,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.44,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 39.76,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.44,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 60.24,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 7.64,
          "fair_prob": 54.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 46.56,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.64,
          "fair_prob": 45.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 53.44,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 5.4,
        "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
        "market_prob_pct": 35.02,
        "status": "mild_value",
        "steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.0%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "mild_value",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.4,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 35.0,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 5.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 5.4,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 81,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 85,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 72,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 72,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Nyva Ternopil 1.19 xG vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.41 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40.4%",
              "Market: Ahrobiznes Volochysk ~35.0% implied",
              "Market Steam: Nyva Ternopil +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ahrobiznes Volochysk with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.4,
        "hero_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
          "note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 5.4,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
          "largest_gap_pp": 5.4,
          "lead": "The model rates Ahrobiznes Volochysk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.4,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -3.3,
            "edge_pp": -3.3,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Nyva Ternopil",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.44,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -2.1,
            "edge_pp": -2.1,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.54,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 5.4,
            "edge_pp": 5.4,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.02,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "mild_value",
        "status_label": "Mild Value",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ahrobiznes Volochysk.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ahrobiznes Volochysk (35.0%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Market \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 39.37,
        "closing_odds": 2.54,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 39.37,
        "entry_odds": 2.54,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/7",
        "current_odds": 2.75,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.75,
        "pick_team": "Nyva Ternopil",
        "steam_score": 21,
        "steam_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
      "away_team_id": 3620,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3620.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
      "away_team_public_id": "4mbQTmp3ZTltIW",
      "away_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
      "country_code": "UA",
      "country_display_name": "Ukraine",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
      "country_id": 160,
      "country_name": "Ukraine",
      "fixture_id": 1581916,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ukraine",
      "home_team_display_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
      "home_team_id": 6493,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6493.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Nyva Ternopil",
      "home_team_public_id": "1DXJcgtSoz75sv",
      "home_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "nyva-ternopil",
      "league_country": "Ukraine",
      "league_country_display": "Ukraine",
      "league_display_name": "Persha Liga de Ucrania",
      "league_id": 334,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/334.webp",
      "league_name": "Persha Liga de Ucrania",
      "league_public_id": "4wkMf1hs6IaUBB",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-27 12:30:00",
      "public_id": "4omV5S7Xu7csGk",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Ternopil",
      "venue_name": "Ternopilsky Misky Stadion"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4131,
            "best_odd": 2.54,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0226,
            "ev": -0.0532,
            "implied_prob": 0.3502,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3502,
              "draw": 0.3154,
              "home": 0.3344
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "p_final": 0.3727
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4356,
            "best_odd": 2.82,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0093,
            "ev": -0.1367,
            "implied_prob": 0.3154,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3502,
              "draw": 0.3154,
              "home": 0.3344
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2941,
            "p_final": 0.3061
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4276,
            "best_odd": 2.66,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0142,
            "ev": -0.1483,
            "implied_prob": 0.3344,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3502,
              "draw": 0.3154,
              "home": 0.3344
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3012,
            "p_final": 0.3202
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.54,
            "edge": 0.0111,
            "ev": 0.0282,
            "implied_prob": 0.3937,
            "model_prob": 0.4048
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 2.82,
            "edge": -0.0605,
            "ev": -0.1707,
            "implied_prob": 0.3546,
            "model_prob": 0.2941
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.66,
            "edge": -0.0748,
            "ev": -0.1989,
            "implied_prob": 0.3759,
            "model_prob": 0.3012
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2193,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1994,
          "best_no_odd": 1.73,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.98,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0764,
          "edge_yes": 0.0764,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2077,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1104,
          "ev_yes": 0.0732,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0519,
          "implied_no": 0.5344,
          "implied_yes": 0.4656,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2193,
              "best_odd": 1.72,
              "edge": -0.0166,
              "ev": -0.1104,
              "implied_prob": 0.5339,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5172
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1994,
              "best_odd": 1.97,
              "edge": 0.0151,
              "ev": -0.0519,
              "implied_prob": 0.4661,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4813
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "p_final_no": 0.5172,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4813,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1542,
          "alpha_under": 0.212,
          "best_over_odd": 2.4,
          "best_under_odd": 1.6,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.365,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.49,
          "edge_over": 0.0844,
          "edge_under": -0.0844,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1568,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0511,
          "ev_under": -0.1712,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1161,
          "implied_over": 0.3976,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.3865,
          "implied_under": 0.6024,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.6135,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1542,
              "best_odd": 2.365,
              "edge": 0.0147,
              "ev": -0.0511,
              "implied_prob": 0.3865,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4012
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.212,
              "best_odd": 1.49,
              "edge": -0.0202,
              "ev": -0.1161,
              "implied_prob": 0.6135,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5932
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.4012,
          "p_final_under": 0.5932,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.8,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.8,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.8
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 5.5,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.8,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 85,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.0%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (40.5%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 5.5,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "81 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "85 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk).",
          "Decision strength: 7.8/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 81,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0532,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.54,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.3502,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.4,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.22
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.2941,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.22
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.54,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0226,
          "ev": -0.0532,
          "implied_prob": 0.3502,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1994,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.97,
            "edge": 0.0151,
            "market_prob": 0.4661,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.542,
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2193,
              "best_odd": 1.72,
              "edge": -0.0166,
              "ev": -0.1104,
              "implied_prob": 0.5339,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5172
            },
            "p_final": 0.4813,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1994,
              "best_odd": 1.97,
              "edge": 0.0151,
              "ev": -0.0519,
              "implied_prob": 0.4661,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4813
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0764,
          "ev": 0.0732,
          "implied_prob": 0.4656,
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1542,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.365,
            "edge": 0.0147,
            "market_prob": 0.3865,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1542,
              "best_odd": 2.365,
              "edge": 0.0147,
              "ev": -0.0511,
              "implied_prob": 0.3865,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4012
            },
            "p_final": 0.4012,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.212,
              "best_odd": 1.49,
              "edge": -0.0202,
              "ev": -0.1161,
              "implied_prob": 0.6135,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5932
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.0844,
          "ev": 0.1568,
          "implied_prob": 0.3976,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1581916,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4048,
        "draw": 0.2941,
        "home": 0.3012
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0732,
        "implied_prob": 0.4656,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.542,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0732,
          "implied_prob": 0.4656,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
        "home": "Nyva Ternopil"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.052904,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1568,
        "implied_prob": 0.3976,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0532,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.54,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.3502,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.0282,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.8%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1581916,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:29:28.385837+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Persha Liga de Ucrania Persha Liga de Ucrania — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Kulykiv 9 5 2 2 17
2 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 9 5 2 2 17
3 Oleksandria 9 4 4 1 16
4 SK Poltava 9 4 3 2 15
5 Prykarpattia 9 4 2 3 14
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 9 4 2 3 14
7 Yarud Mariupol' 9 4 2 3 14
8 Inhulets Petrove 8 4 2 2 14
9 Metal Kharkiv 9 4 1 4 13
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 9 3 3 3 12
11 Nyva Ternopil 9 2 4 3 10
12 UCSA 9 2 4 3 10
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 8 3 0 5 9
14 Chernihiv 8 1 4 3 7
15 Polissya II 8 1 3 4 6
16 Probiy Horodenka 9 0 2 7 2
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Kulykiv 9 19 9 +10 17
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 9 14 12 +2 14
3 SK Poltava 9 13 5 +8 15
4 Oleksandria 9 13 7 +6 16
5 Prykarpattia 9 12 9 +3 14
6 Yarud Mariupol' 9 12 11 +1 14
7 UCSA 9 12 14 -2 10
8 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 9 11 6 +5 17
9 Metal Kharkiv 9 11 11 0 13
10 Polissya II 8 11 14 -3 6
11 Inhulets Petrove 8 10 10 0 14
12 Lokomotiv Kyiv 9 9 9 0 12
13 Nyva Ternopil 9 9 9 0 10
14 Chernihiv 8 8 11 -3 7
15 Kolos Kovalivka II 8 8 15 -7 9
16 Probiy Horodenka 9 6 26 -20 2