The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Cruz Azul Hidalgo Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 36.1% | 34.1% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.5% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Piratas | 34.2% | 39.4% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Piratas's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Piratas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Cruz Azul Hidalgo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cruz Azul Hidalgo by 5.1 percentage points (41.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Piratas 34.2%
- xG · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1.32 — Piratas 1.28
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2.79 · Draw 3.60 · Piratas 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 34.1% · Draw 26.5% · Piratas 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2.79 · Draw 3.60 · Piratas 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 34.1% · Draw 26.5% · Piratas 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1–1 Piratas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0235,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"show_primary_label": true,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "Piratas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Hidalgo as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0069,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.14,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "Piratas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Hidalgo as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0069,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1.32 xG vs Piratas 1.28 \u2192 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 36.1%",
"Market: Piratas ~34.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Piratas odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cruz Azul Hidalgo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.96,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"market_prob": 34.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.18,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.14,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Piratas",
"market_prob": 39.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Piratas",
"market_prob_pct": 39.38,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Piratas"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Piratas\u0027s win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1.32 xG vs Piratas 1.28 \u2192 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 36.1%",
"Market: Piratas ~34.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Piratas odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cruz Azul Hidalgo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.14,
"hero_label": "Piratas",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Piratas odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Piratas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Piratas.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Piratas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Piratas."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Piratas above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Piratas (\u2191 +4.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Piratas."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Piratas",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Piratas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.96,
"edge_pp": 1.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"market_prob_pct": 34.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.18,
"edge_pp": 3.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.14,
"edge_pp": -5.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Piratas",
"market_prob_pct": 39.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Piratas.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Piratas (34.1%).",
"Piratas odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 5/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cruz Azul Hidalgo, Market \u2192 Piratas, while Piratas odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.32,
"closing_odds": 2.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.32,
"entry_odds": 2.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Piratas (4.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.42",
"2.31",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 11m",
"pick_team": "Piratas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.42,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/6 sportsbooks on Piratas",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Piratas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Piratas",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Piratas",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Piratas",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Piratas",
"away_team_id": 27935,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Piratas",
"away_team_public_id": "34pKru1ra82nUl",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1581477,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"home_team_id": 15928,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15928.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"home_team_public_id": "04mctP4plRv6jd",
"home_team_slug": "cruz-azul-hidalgo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cruz-azul-hidalgo",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_id": 263,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/263.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Expansi\u00f3n MX",
"league_public_id": "37VzxtGVs2y4fb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4MnLDW8FDXleYd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jasso",
"venue_name": "Estadio 10 de Diciembre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4153,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.3938,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3938,
"draw": 0.2647,
"home": 0.3415
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3724
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0142,
"implied_prob": 0.2647,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3938,
"draw": 0.2647,
"home": 0.3415
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2738
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4369,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3938,
"draw": 0.2647,
"home": 0.3415
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.35
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0708,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": 0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": 0.007,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1684,
"alpha_yes": 0.2316,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0393,
"edge_yes": -0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0608,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0926,
"implied_no": 0.4157,
"implied_yes": 0.5843,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1684,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2316,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.5879,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.578
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4193,
"p_final_yes": 0.578,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2269,
"alpha_under": 0.2063,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0571,
"edge_under": 0.0571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.092,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0473,
"implied_over": 0.5391,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5374,
"implied_under": 0.4609,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4626,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2269,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.5374,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5249
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2063,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.4626,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.474
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5249,
"p_final_under": 0.474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Hidalgo as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruz Azul Hidalgo).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0069,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1684,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0072,
"market_prob": 0.4121,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1684,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"p_final": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0608,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2316,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.5879,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.578
}
},
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2063,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0114,
"market_prob": 0.4626,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2269,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.5374,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5249
},
"p_final": 0.474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0473,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2063,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.4626,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.474
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0571,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1581477,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Piratas",
"home": "Cruz Azul Hidalgo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0235,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0069,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1581477,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T18:01:22.377168+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Expansión MX — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monarcas | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Tapatío | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 9 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Correcaminos UAT | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún FC | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Club Deportivo Tapatío | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piratas | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Durango | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 |
