AI correctly predicted the AFC Amsterdam win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 AFC Amsterdam AFC Amsterdam ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koninklijke HFC | 34.2% | 38.3% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.4% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
| AFC Amsterdam | 36.1% | 37.2% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (AFC Amsterdam win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced AFC Amsterdam more conservatively (30.9% vs model 36.1%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (AFC Amsterdam win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Koninklijke HFC 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · AFC Amsterdam 36.1%
- xG · Koninklijke HFC 1.28 — AFC Amsterdam 1.32
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Koninklijke HFC 2.36 · Draw 3.66 · AFC Amsterdam 2.45
- Implied 1X2 · Koninklijke HFC 38.3% · Draw 24.7% · AFC Amsterdam 36.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Koninklijke HFC 2.39 · Draw 3.75 · AFC Amsterdam 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Koninklijke HFC 38.3% · Draw 24.4% · AFC Amsterdam 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result AFC Amsterdam win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
AFC Amsterdam win · Koninklijke HFC 1–3 AFC Amsterdam
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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{
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{
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],
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},
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"version": "v1"
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"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0964,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.22,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Koninklijke HFC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AFC Amsterdam at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AFC Amsterdam as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AFC Amsterdam",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0964,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Koninklijke HFC 1.28 xG vs AFC Amsterdam 1.32 \u2192 AFC Amsterdam 36.1%",
"Market: Koninklijke HFC ~37.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Koninklijke HFC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean AFC Amsterdam with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Koninklijke HFC",
"market_prob": 38.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "AFC Amsterdam",
"market_prob": 37.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.31,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.31,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.43,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Koninklijke HFC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "AFC Amsterdam",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Koninklijke HFC 1.28 xG vs AFC Amsterdam 1.32 \u2192 AFC Amsterdam 36.1%",
"Market: Koninklijke HFC ~37.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Koninklijke HFC +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean AFC Amsterdam with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.22,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.2,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.09,
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Koninklijke HFC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.22,
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.13,
"edge_pp": -1.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "AFC Amsterdam",
"market_prob_pct": 37.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Koninklijke HFC (37.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 AFC Amsterdam, Market \u2192 Koninklijke HFC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.67,
"closing_odds": 3.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.67,
"entry_odds": 3.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Koninklijke HFC",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "Koninklijke HFC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "afc-amsterdam",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "AFC Amsterdam",
"away_team_id": 1252,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1252.webp",
"away_team_name": "AFC Amsterdam",
"away_team_public_id": "2XaUfze8e3bSqc",
"away_team_slug": "afc-amsterdam",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1579465,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Koninklijke HFC",
"home_team_id": 1246,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1246.webp",
"home_team_name": "Koninklijke HFC",
"home_team_public_id": "5byaanK4pHaFJm",
"home_team_slug": "koninklijke-hfc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "koninklijke-hfc",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Tweede Divisie",
"league_id": 492,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/492.webp",
"league_name": "Tweede Divisie",
"league_public_id": "4bFZaOhSId0eaR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 12:30:00",
"public_id": "2CgmGv5JEuuk9v",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Haarlem",
"venue_name": "Sportpark Spanjaardslaan"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4423,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3724,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3673
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0296,
"implied_prob": 0.2443,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3724,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2588
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.3833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3724,
"draw": 0.2443,
"home": 0.3833
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.366
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.076,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1629,
"alpha_yes": 0.224,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0631,
"edge_yes": -0.0631,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0634,
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1088,
"implied_no": 0.3919,
"implied_yes": 0.6081,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0634,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.402
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.6084,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5942
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.402,
"p_final_yes": 0.5942,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2123,
"alpha_under": 0.193,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.14,
"edge_over": -0.0927,
"edge_under": 0.0927,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.126,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0552,
"implied_over": 0.5747,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5768,
"implied_under": 0.4253,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4232,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.5768,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5567
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4415
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5567,
"p_final_under": 0.4415,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AFC Amsterdam at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AFC Amsterdam as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AFC Amsterdam",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Koninklijke HFC, but the model still strongly favours AFC Amsterdam.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0964,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "AFC Amsterdam"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.3916,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0634,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.402
},
"p_final": 0.402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0634,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.6084,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5942
}
},
"edge": 0.0631,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.3919,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4232,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.5768,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5567
},
"p_final": 0.4415,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0552,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0927,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4253,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579465,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "AFC Amsterdam",
"home": "Koninklijke HFC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4253,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0964,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3724,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579465,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T12:29:27.799859+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tweede Divisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Kozakken Boys | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | HHC Hardenberg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Ijsselmeervogels | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Spakenburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | AFC Amsterdam | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Róterdam II | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | RKAV Volendam | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Barendrecht | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hoek | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Kloetinge | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Almere City II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | GVVV Veenendaal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Róterdam II | 6 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 6 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Kozakken Boys | 6 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | De Treffers | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | HHC Hardenberg | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | AFC Amsterdam | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Almere City II | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Barendrecht | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Hoek | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Koninklijke HFC | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | GVVV Veenendaal | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | RKAV Volendam | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Kloetinge | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ijsselmeervogels | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 0 |
