The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Znojmo at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Znojmo Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Znojmo | 37.5% | 47.7% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.1% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Velká Bíteš | 32.9% | 30.2% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Znojmo's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Znojmo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Znojmo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Znojmo by 10.2 percentage points (47.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:51 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Znojmo 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Velká Bíteš 32.9%
- xG · Znojmo 1.35 — Velká Bíteš 1.25
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Znojmo 1.90 · Draw 4.10 · Velká Bíteš 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Znojmo 47.7% · Draw 22.1% · Velká Bíteš 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Znojmo 1.90 · Draw 4.10 · Velká Bíteš 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Znojmo 47.7% · Draw 22.1% · Velká Bíteš 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
49/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Znojmo 1–1 Velká Bíteš
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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],
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"label": "Reason",
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"primary": {
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"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
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"version": "v1"
},
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"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
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"primary_block_explain": {
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{
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"ok": true
},
{
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}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1917,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.15,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Znojmo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znojmo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znojmo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znojmo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1917,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znojmo 1.35 xG vs Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161 1.25 \u2192 Znojmo 37.5%",
"Market: Znojmo ~47.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Znojmo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Znojmo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Znojmo",
"market_prob": 47.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161",
"market_prob": 30.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.39,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.39,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Znojmo",
"market_prob_pct": 47.69,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Znojmo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Znojmo\u0027s win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Znojmo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Znojmo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Znojmo 1.35 xG vs Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161 1.25 \u2192 Znojmo 37.5%",
"Market: Znojmo ~47.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Znojmo +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Znojmo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.15,
"hero_label": "Znojmo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Znojmo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Znojmo than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Znojmo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Znojmo (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Znojmo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Znojmo",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Znojmo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.15,
"edge_pp": -10.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Znojmo",
"market_prob_pct": 47.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.51,
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.64,
"edge_pp": 2.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 30.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Znojmo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Znojmo (47.7%).",
"Znojmo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Znojmo",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Znojmo",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "velka-bites",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161",
"away_team_id": 7371,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7371.webp",
"away_team_name": "Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161",
"away_team_public_id": "0SlHTUxeYDIgEF",
"away_team_slug": "velka-bites",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1579129,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Znojmo",
"home_team_id": 3734,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3734.webp",
"home_team_name": "Znojmo",
"home_team_public_id": "2oVKS1UWbR2UZI",
"home_team_slug": "znojmo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "znojmo",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Cuarta Liga - Divisi\u00f3n D de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 353,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/353.webp",
"league_name": "Cuarta Liga - Divisi\u00f3n D de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "3Nrf5lgTEMtgLR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5R3nFJDA3pTBWV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Znojmo",
"venue_name": "Mestsky stadion v Hornim parku"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3021,
"draw": 0.221,
"home": 0.4769
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3097
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1776,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3021,
"draw": 0.221,
"home": 0.4769
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2343
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5089,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1917,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3021,
"draw": 0.221,
"home": 0.4769
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4254
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1507,
"ev": -0.2862,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1083,
"alpha_yes": 0.1489,
"best_no_odd": 2.56,
"best_yes_odd": 1.43,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0939,
"edge_yes": -0.0939,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1648,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0607,
"ev_yes": -0.2207,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1064,
"implied_no": 0.3611,
"implied_yes": 0.6389,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1083,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3713
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6389,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6249
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3713,
"p_final_yes": 0.6249,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1937,
"alpha_under": 0.1409,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.42,
"edge_over": -0.1443,
"edge_under": 0.1443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1376,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0478,
"implied_over": 0.6263,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6269,
"implied_under": 0.3737,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3731,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.6269,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5989
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1409,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.3731,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3935
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
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"p_final_over": 0.5989,
"p_final_under": 0.3935,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Znojmo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Znojmo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Znojmo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Znojmo).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1917,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1917,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Znojmo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.3611,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3713
},
"p_final": 0.3713,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0607,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1064,
"implied_prob": 0.6389,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6249
}
},
"edge": 0.0939,
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1409,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0204,
"market_prob": 0.3731,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1937,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.6269,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5989
},
"p_final": 0.3935,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0478,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1409,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.3731,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3935
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1443,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1579129,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1648,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Velk\u00e1 B\u00edte\u0161",
"home": "Znojmo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3737,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1917,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2862,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1579129,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:51:13.818357+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Cuarta Liga - División D de República Checa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Znojmo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Kuřim | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Chotěboř | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Humpolec | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedřichov | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Kuřim | 7 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Znojmo | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 14 |
| 4 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Chotěboř | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedřichov | 7 | 5 | 22 | -17 | 2 |
