The model missed the final outcome (Uherský Brod win 2–1).
The model had projected Sigma Olomouc II at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Uherský Brod ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uherský Brod | 28.8% | 23.8% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 23.9% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Sigma Olomouc II | 41.9% | 52.3% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc II's win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Uherský Brod win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sigma Olomouc II by 10.4 percentage points (52.3% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Uherský Brod 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Sigma Olomouc II 41.9%
- xG · Uherský Brod 1.16 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.44
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.81 · Draw 3.78 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 23.8% · Draw 23.9% · Sigma Olomouc II 52.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.81 · Draw 3.78 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 23.8% · Draw 23.9% · Sigma Olomouc II 52.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
47/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Uherský Brod win · Uherský Brod 2–1 Sigma Olomouc II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1866,
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},
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],
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
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],
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sigma Olomouc II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sigma Olomouc II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
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"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
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"primary": {
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"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sigma Olomouc II).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5231,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.276,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.43,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.44,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.16,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.16 \u00b7 Away xG 1.44 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sigma Olomouc II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sigma Olomouc II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sigma Olomouc II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sigma Olomouc II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sigma Olomouc II).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5231,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.276,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uhersk\u00fd Brod 1.16 xG vs Sigma Olomouc II 1.44 \u2192 Sigma Olomouc II 41.9%",
"Market: Sigma Olomouc II ~52.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Uhersk\u00fd Brod +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sigma Olomouc II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"market_prob": 23.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.43,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"market_prob": 52.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.89,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.89,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"market_prob_pct": 52.31,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc II\u0027s win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.4,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Sigma Olomouc II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uhersk\u00fd Brod 1.16 xG vs Sigma Olomouc II 1.44 \u2192 Sigma Olomouc II 41.9%",
"Market: Sigma Olomouc II ~52.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Uhersk\u00fd Brod +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sigma Olomouc II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.43,
"hero_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Sigma Olomouc II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Sigma Olomouc II (pricing gap 10.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sigma Olomouc II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.06,
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"market_prob_pct": 23.75,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.37,
"edge_pp": 5.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.43,
"edge_pp": -10.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"market_prob_pct": 52.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sigma Olomouc II (52.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sigma Olomouc II, Market \u2192 Sigma Olomouc II, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
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"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
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"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sigma-olomouc-ii",
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"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"away_team_id": 8622,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8622.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"away_team_public_id": "2TtfMP82VHaJUs",
"away_team_slug": "sigma-olomouc-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
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"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"home_team_id": 8624,
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"home_team_name": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod",
"home_team_public_id": "0ak0TuWKh3vlwa",
"home_team_slug": "uhersky-brod",
"ht.home_team_slug": "uhersky-brod",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Liga - MSFL de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 349,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/349.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Liga - MSFL de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "4IR1qFbOCxa8Dj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:30:00",
"public_id": "5pR6RwkLaKbw1g",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Uhersky Brod",
"venue_name": "Orelsky stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5059,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0529,
"ev": -0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.5231,
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"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.2375
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.4702
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2757,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.2394,
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"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.2375
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
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"draw": 0.2394,
"home": 0.2375
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.2516
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
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"away": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.1596,
"ev": -0.276,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
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},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.0287,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.81,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": 0.0981,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.2882
}
},
"btts": {
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"alpha_yes": 0.1606,
"best_no_odd": 2.24,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0489,
"edge_yes": -0.0489,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0304,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0746,
"ev_yes": -0.163,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0994,
"implied_no": 0.4111,
"implied_yes": 0.5889,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1168,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0057,
"ev": -0.0746,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4168
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.0994,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.54,
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}
},
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"p_final_no": 0.4168,
"p_final_yes": 0.581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2092,
"alpha_under": 0.1902,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.545,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.18,
"edge_over": -0.1071,
"edge_under": 0.1071,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.053,
"implied_over": 0.5891,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5852,
"implied_under": 0.4109,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4148,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0216,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.5852,
"model_prob": 0.482,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4148,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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},
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"reliability": "medium"
}
},
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sigma Olomouc II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sigma Olomouc II at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sigma Olomouc II as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
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"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5231,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.276,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.6%"
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"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
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"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
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"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0529,
"ev": -0.1866,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sigma Olomouc II"
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"edge": -0.0078,
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0196,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0216,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.5852,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5636
},
"p_final": 0.4344,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.053,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": 0.0196,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4148,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4344
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1071,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1577949,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sigma Olomouc II",
"home": "Uhersk\u00fd Brod"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1866,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5231,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.276,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1577949,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:31:38.264886+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Tercera Liga - MSFL de República Checa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Uničov | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Hranice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko B | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vrchovina | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Hodonín | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Blansko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Havířov | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Líšeň II | 10 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Uničov | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Slovácko B | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 9 | Karviná II | 10 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Blansko | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Hranice | 10 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Vítkovice | 10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Hodonín | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Havířov | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
