The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Felgueiras 1932 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Felgueiras 1932 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 33.8% | 43.3% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 36.6% | 26.0% | +10.6 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Felgueiras 1932's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Felgueiras 1932.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Felgueiras 1932; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Felgueiras 1932 by 10.6 percentage points (26.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Farense 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Felgueiras 1932 36.6%
- xG · Farense 1.27 — Felgueiras 1932 1.33
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Farense 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Felgueiras 1932 3.66
- Implied 1X2 · Farense 43.3% · Draw 30.6% · Felgueiras 1932 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Farense 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Felgueiras 1932 3.66
- Implied 1X2 · Farense 43.3% · Draw 30.6% · Felgueiras 1932 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Farense 1–1 Felgueiras 1932
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-24 16:59:59",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
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"prob": 8.3
},
{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0506,
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
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"side_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"sort_key": 10195.54,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
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{
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"ev_under": null,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"under_prob": 51.8,
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.55,
"hero_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"market_prob_pct": 26.0,
"market_team": "Farense",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Felgueiras 1932 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Felgueiras 1932 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Felgueiras 1932",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Felgueiras 1932 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576464 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932).",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27322404371584696,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "6/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Felgueiras 1932 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Felgueiras 1932 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Felgueiras 1932",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Felgueiras 1932 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576464 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932).",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27322404371584696,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Farense 1.27 xG vs Felgueiras 1932 1.33 \u2192 Felgueiras 1932 36.6%",
"Market: Farense ~26.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Felgueiras 1932 \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Felgueiras 1932 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.55,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Farense",
"market_prob": 43.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.0,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.55,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"market_prob": 26.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Felgueiras 1932",
"market_prob_pct": 26.04,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Felgueiras 1932"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Felgueiras 1932\u0027s win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.6,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Felgueiras 1932 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Farense 1.27 xG vs Felgueiras 1932 1.33 \u2192 Felgueiras 1932 36.6%",
"Market: Farense ~26.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Felgueiras 1932 \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Felgueiras 1932 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.55,
"hero_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Felgueiras 1932 odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (6/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Felgueiras 1932.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Felgueiras 1932.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Felgueiras 1932.",
"Confirmation remains limited (6/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Felgueiras 1932."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Felgueiras 1932 more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Felgueiras 1932 (\u2193 -8.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (6/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.6,
"lead": "The model rates Felgueiras 1932 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.55,
"edge_pp": -9.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Farense",
"market_prob_pct": 43.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.0,
"edge_pp": -1.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.55,
"edge_pp": 10.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"market_prob_pct": 26.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Felgueiras 1932.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Farense (26.0%).",
"Felgueiras 1932 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.3%, 6/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Felgueiras 1932, Market \u2192 Farense, Recent sharp money \u2192 Felgueiras 1932.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.32,
"closing_odds": 3.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.32,
"entry_odds": 3.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Felgueiras 1932 (8.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.66",
"3.48",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 2.99 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 130h 12m",
"pick_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.66,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,3.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/14 sportsbooks on Felgueiras 1932",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/14",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Felgueiras 1932",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Felgueiras 1932",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Felgueiras 1932",
"away_team_id": 4744,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4744.webp",
"away_team_name": "Felgueiras 1932",
"away_team_public_id": "3ZKMwRgiEpOCiK",
"away_team_slug": "felgueiras-1932",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1576464,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Farense",
"home_team_id": 231,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/231.webp",
"home_team_name": "Farense",
"home_team_public_id": "3actr81CwXdzgf",
"home_team_slug": "farense",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga",
"league_id": 95,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/95.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga",
"league_public_id": "4K3g7xxdvkF5vX",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-24 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2DWbJ5Ps2jeN2s",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Faro",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2525,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2604,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4332
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.287
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2955,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0561,
"implied_prob": 0.3064,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2604,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4332
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3035
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3854,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2604,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4332
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3963
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.66,
"edge": 0.0928,
"ev": 0.3395,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.078,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.117,
"ev": -0.2574,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0506,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3395,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Felgueiras 1932 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Felgueiras 1932 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Felgueiras 1932",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Felgueiras 1932 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.66 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576464 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.66 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Felgueiras 1932).",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27322404371584696,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.66,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Felgueiras 1932"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576464,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0506,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Felgueiras 1932",
"home": "Farense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020372,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Felgueiras 1932",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0506,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.66,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.27322404371584696,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3396,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576464,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-24T17:00:01.473250+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Vizela | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leixões | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Académica de Coimbra | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 6 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | União de Leiria | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Leixões | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 | Académica de Coimbra | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 | Sporting CP B | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Farense | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Torreense | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | AVS | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Vizela | 5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Amarante | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Chaves | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Portimonense | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
