The model missed the final outcome (1. FC Nürnberg win 4–1).
The model had projected Arminia Bielefeld at 49.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Arminia Bielefeld 1. FC Nürnberg ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 26.3% | 41.7% | -15.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.6% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 49.0% | 32.7% | +16.3 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Arminia Bielefeld's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.7%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue 1. FC Nürnberg win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.33) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Arminia Bielefeld; match finished 1. FC Nürnberg
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arminia Bielefeld by 16.3 percentage points (32.7% vs model 49.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 26.3% · Draw 24.7% · Arminia Bielefeld 49.0%
- xG · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 — Arminia Bielefeld 2.10
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.32 · Draw 3.79 · Arminia Bielefeld 2.96
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 41.7% · Draw 25.6% · Arminia Bielefeld 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.32 · Draw 3.79 · Arminia Bielefeld 2.96
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 41.7% · Draw 25.6% · Arminia Bielefeld 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 1. FC Nürnberg win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (56%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
6/100
Monitoring Confidence
17/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
1. FC Nürnberg win · 1. FC Nürnberg 4–1 Arminia Bielefeld
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"double_chance": {
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"avg_total": 3.33,
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"total_expected": 3.33,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 45.1,
"implied_prob": 33.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Arminia Bielefeld Win",
"model_prob": 49.0,
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.71,
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-29 18:29:28",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-29 18:01:01",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.55,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
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"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.067,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.097,
"model_prob_pct": 9.7,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.23,
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"edge": 16.8,
"ev": 71.3,
"probability": 49.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1325,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 13.2,
"text": "+13.2%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"sort_key": 10269.25,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 64.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 35.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 36.7,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"alert_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.32,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"market_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"model_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_team": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4516,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576159 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 55.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.87"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.87
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (56%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.32,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.1,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 56.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.1,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 2.10 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +56%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"steam_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4516,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576159 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 55.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.87"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.87
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.23 xG vs Arminia Bielefeld 2.10 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 49.0%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~32.7% implied",
"Market Drift: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Arminia Bielefeld, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.48,
"fair_prob": 26.26,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob": 41.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.84,
"fair_prob": 24.71,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.32,
"fair_prob": 49.03,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob": 32.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 16.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 32.71,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Arminia Bielefeld\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.7%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 16.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.3,
"model_prob_pct": 49.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Arminia Bielefeld \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.3 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.23 xG vs Arminia Bielefeld 2.10 \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld 49.0%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~32.7% implied",
"Market Drift: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg odds \u2191 +4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Arminia Bielefeld, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.32,
"hero_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg odds lengthened \u2191 +4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Arminia Bielefeld.",
"However, 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Arminia Bielefeld more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.8 pp (at 49.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.8,
"max_prob_pct": 49.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"largest_gap_pp": 16.3,
"lead": "The model rates Arminia Bielefeld considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.48,
"edge_pp": -15.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 41.74,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.84,
"edge_pp": -0.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.32,
"edge_pp": 16.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"market_prob_pct": 32.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg (32.7%).",
"1. FC N\u00fcrnberg odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.8%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Arminia Bielefeld, Market \u2192 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg, while 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.78,
"closing_odds": 2.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.78,
"entry_odds": 2.96,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg (swing 2.32 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20) \u2014 net 4.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.21",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 43m",
"pick_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.32,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"away_team_id": 188,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/188.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"away_team_public_id": "4UCKb5yuGGCT4H",
"away_team_slug": "arminia-bielefeld",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576159,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 3,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 3,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"home_team_id": 171,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/171.webp",
"home_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"home_team_public_id": "2SLod6bqVQAm9D",
"home_team_slug": "1-fc-nurnberg",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-29 18:30:00",
"public_id": "1YyhB5NhxeCxNx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Nuremberg",
"venue_name": "Max-Morlock-Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3398,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3271,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4174
},
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"p_final": 0.3826
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3271,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4174
},
"model_prob": 0.247,
"p_final": 0.253
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3455,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0535,
"ev": -0.1558,
"implied_prob": 0.4174,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3271,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4174
},
"model_prob": 0.2626,
"p_final": 0.3639
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.1526,
"ev": 0.4516,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.4904
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.247
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.1685,
"ev": -0.3908,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.2626
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4516,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1325,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4516,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Arminia Bielefeld at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Arminia Bielefeld as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Arminia Bielefeld \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576159 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Arminia Bielefeld), but pricing still diverges by 16.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1325,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 55.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 56%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.87"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.87
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.633,
"draw_prob": 0.247,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4904,
"over_prob": 0.647,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"under_prob": 0.353,
"xg_diff": 0.87
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
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"model_prob": 0.633,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
"edge": null,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1576159,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1325,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.247,
"home": 0.2626
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"home": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1325,
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Arminia Bielefeld",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3271,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4904,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4516,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576159,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T19:59:50.665937+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
