The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Borussia Dortmund at 68.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Borussia Dortmund Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 68.3% | 69.1% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 19.9% | 18.8% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Werder Bremen | 11.8% | 12.1% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.77) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund 68.4% · Draw 19.9% · Werder Bremen 11.7%
- xG · Borussia Dortmund 2.03 — Werder Bremen 0.74
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 18:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund 1.33 · Draw 5.25 · Werder Bremen 8.50
- Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund 70.9% · Draw 18.0% · Werder Bremen 11.1%
- Bookmaker · bet365
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Borussia Dortmund 1.36 · Draw 5.00 · Werder Bremen 7.80
- Implied 1X2 · Borussia Dortmund 69.1% · Draw 18.8% · Werder Bremen 12.1%
- Bookmaker · roobet
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
72/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
94/100
Betting Confidence
75/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
5.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
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"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
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"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund at 68.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund as the value side (68.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +54.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +54.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+54.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.09,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.09,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.74,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.03,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.03,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.03 \u00b7 Away xG 0.74 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Werder Bremen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5455,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5455,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund at 68.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund as the value side (68.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +54.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +54.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+54.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Borussia Dortmund 2.03 xG vs Werder Bremen 0.74 \u2192 Borussia Dortmund 68.3%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund ~69.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Werder Bremen odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Borussia Dortmund projects stronger on expected goals (+1.29 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.79,
"fair_prob": 68.35,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund",
"market_prob": 69.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.09,
"fair_prob": 19.9,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 18.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.31,
"fair_prob": 11.75,
"label": "Werder Bremen",
"market_prob": 12.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.74,
"fair_prob": 52.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.74,
"fair_prob": 47.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.42,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.42,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.9,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.81,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Werder Bremen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 69.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.8,
"model_prob_pct": 68.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Borussia Dortmund \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Borussia Dortmund 2.03 xG vs Werder Bremen 0.74 \u2192 Borussia Dortmund 68.3%",
"Market: Borussia Dortmund ~69.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Werder Bremen odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Borussia Dortmund projects stronger on expected goals (+1.29 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.09,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Werder Bremen odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Werder Bremen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Werder Bremen \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Werder Bremen has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Werder Bremen \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Werder Bremen has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/10) supports the current market view on Werder Bremen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 48.4 pp (at 68.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 48.4,
"max_prob_pct": 68.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.79,
"edge_pp": -0.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 68.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Borussia Dortmund",
"market_prob_pct": 69.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.09,
"edge_pp": 1.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.31,
"edge_pp": -0.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 11.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Werder Bremen",
"market_prob_pct": 12.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Werder Bremen \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Borussia Dortmund (69.1%).",
"However, Werder Bremen has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.7%, 8/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Borussia Dortmund \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 20.0,
"closing_odds": 5.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 20.0,
"entry_odds": 5.0,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "8/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Werder Bremen (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"8.50",
"8.00",
"7.50"
],
"display": "8.40 \u2192 5.90 \u2192 8.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 1m",
"pick_team": "Werder Bremen",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
8.5,
7.8,
8.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,12.6 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "8.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "8.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/10 sportsbooks on Werder Bremen",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Werder Bremen",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 8.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Werder Bremen",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/10",
"current_odds": 8.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "Werder Bremen",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Werder Bremen",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "werder-bremen",
"away_expected_goals": 0.0,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Werder Bremen",
"away_team_id": 162,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/162.webp",
"away_team_name": "Werder Bremen",
"away_team_public_id": "3jUy0ngMFi5iXZ",
"away_team_slug": "werder-bremen",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1575176,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.14,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Borussia Dortmund",
"home_team_id": 165,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/165.webp",
"home_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund",
"home_team_public_id": "61tpwWsknR1wRt",
"home_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund",
"ht.home_team_slug": "borussia-dortmund",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "Bundesliga",
"league_id": 78,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
"league_name": "Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "4VZ6F4gx7LWiHg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-09 18:30:00",
"public_id": "5A487lxYxTNFuJ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Dortmund",
"venue_name": "Signal Iduna Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 7.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.1206,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1206,
"draw": 0.1881,
"home": 0.6914
},
"model_prob": 0.1173,
"p_final": 0.1199
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 5.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.1881,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1206,
"draw": 0.1881,
"home": 0.6914
},
"model_prob": 0.1989,
"p_final": 0.1902
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1206,
"draw": 0.1881,
"home": 0.6914
},
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"p_final": 0.6869
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.8,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0849,
"implied_prob": 0.1282,
"model_prob": 0.1173
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.0,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"model_prob": 0.1989
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.7353,
"model_prob": 0.6838
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3498,
"alpha_yes": 0.481,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1142,
"edge_yes": -0.1142,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2282,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0154,
"ev_yes": -0.2218,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1566,
"implied_no": 0.4198,
"implied_yes": 0.5802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3498,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.4615
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.481,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0536,
"ev": -0.1566,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5238
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4615,
"p_final_yes": 0.5238,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4358,
"alpha_under": 0.3169,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.24,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.98,
"edge_over": -0.1674,
"edge_under": 0.1674,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2678,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1631,
"ev_under": 0.5455,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0884,
"implied_over": 0.6904,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6866,
"implied_under": 0.3096,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3134,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4358,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0713,
"ev": -0.1631,
"implied_prob": 0.6866,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.6153
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3169,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3134,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.3652
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6153,
"p_final_under": 0.3652,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.77,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5455,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5455,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5455,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5455,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5455,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Borussia Dortmund at 68.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 69.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Borussia Dortmund as the value side (68.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Borussia Dortmund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +54.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +54.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+54.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Borussia Dortmund).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.29"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.466,
"draw_prob": 0.1989,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6838,
"over_prob": 0.523,
"total_xg": 2.77,
"under_prob": 0.477,
"xg_diff": 1.29
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Borussia Dortmund"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3498,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.039,
"market_prob": 0.4226,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3498,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.4226,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.4615
},
"p_final": 0.4615,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0154,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.481,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0536,
"ev": -0.1566,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5238
}
},
"edge": 0.1142,
"ev": 0.2282,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3169,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0519,
"market_prob": 0.3134,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.477,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4358,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0713,
"ev": -0.1631,
"implied_prob": 0.6866,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.6153
},
"p_final": 0.3652,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0884,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3169,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3134,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.3652
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1674,
"ev": 0.5455,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575176,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5455,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1173,
"draw": 0.1989,
"home": 0.6838
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2282,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2282,
"implied_prob": 0.4198,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Werder Bremen",
"home": "Borussia Dortmund"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.260203,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5455,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.477,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0658,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6914,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6838,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7352941176470588,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575176,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-09T19:45:13.059301+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern Múnich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Friburgo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Augsburgo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | 1. FC Colonia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Múnich | 4 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 2 | SC Friburgo | 4 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Augsburgo | 4 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | 1. FC Colonia | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 4 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | +3.1 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayern Múnich | 4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | +3.0 | 10 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 12 |
| 4 | SC Friburgo | 4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Augsburgo | 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 7 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | +0.6 | 5 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | +0.4 | 7 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 3 |
| 11 | 1. FC Colonia | 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 4 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 4 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 3 |
| 14 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -2.0 | 5 |
| 16 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 1.7 | 4.4 | -2.7 | 7 |
| 17 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 0.9 | 3.9 | -3.0 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0.9 | 4.0 | -3.1 | 0 |
