AI correctly predicted the Grand-Saconnex win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Grand-Saconnex Grand-Saconnex ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zürich II | 33.3% | 26.2% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.5% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Grand-Saconnex | 37.1% | 51.3% | -14.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Grand-Saconnex's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Grand-Saconnex win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Grand-Saconnex than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Grand-Saconnex higher (51.3% vs model 37.1%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Grand-Saconnex win 1–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zürich II 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Grand-Saconnex 37.0%
- xG · Zürich II 1.26 — Grand-Saconnex 1.34
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zürich II 3.54 · Draw 4.12 · Grand-Saconnex 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Zürich II 26.2% · Draw 22.5% · Grand-Saconnex 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Zürich II 3.54 · Draw 4.12 · Grand-Saconnex 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Zürich II 26.2% · Draw 22.5% · Grand-Saconnex 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Grand-Saconnex win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
28/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Grand-Saconnex win · Zürich II 1–2 Grand-Saconnex
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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}
],
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"decision_strength": 4.6,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
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"execution_confidence": 49,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Grand-Saconnex at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Grand-Saconnex as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Grand-Saconnex",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6265,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6265,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Grand-Saconnex at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Grand-Saconnex as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Grand-Saconnex",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Z\u00fcrich II 1.26 xG vs Grand-Saconnex 1.34 \u2192 Grand-Saconnex 37.1%",
"Market: Grand-Saconnex ~51.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Z\u00fcrich II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Grand-Saconnex with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"market_prob": 26.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.11,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Grand-Saconnex",
"market_prob": 51.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.86,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 70.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.86,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 29.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Grand-Saconnex",
"market_prob_pct": 51.27,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Z\u00fcrich II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Grand-Saconnex\u0027s win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Grand-Saconnex",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Grand-Saconnex \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Z\u00fcrich II 1.26 xG vs Grand-Saconnex 1.34 \u2192 Grand-Saconnex 37.1%",
"Market: Grand-Saconnex ~51.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Z\u00fcrich II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Grand-Saconnex with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.21,
"hero_label": "Grand-Saconnex",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Grand-Saconnex is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Grand-Saconnex than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Grand-Saconnex than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Grand-Saconnex than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Grand-Saconnex is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Grand-Saconnex more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Grand-Saconnex (pricing gap 14.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Grand-Saconnex",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Grand-Saconnex higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.1,
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"market_prob_pct": 26.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.11,
"edge_pp": 7.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.21,
"edge_pp": -14.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Grand-Saconnex",
"market_prob_pct": 51.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Grand-Saconnex than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Grand-Saconnex (51.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Grand-Saconnex, Market \u2192 Grand-Saconnex, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "grand-saconnex",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Grand-Saconnex",
"away_team_id": 17415,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17415.webp",
"away_team_name": "Grand-Saconnex",
"away_team_public_id": "1BY65rseIQn33F",
"away_team_slug": "grand-saconnex",
"country_code": "CH",
"country_display_name": "Switzerland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_id": 149,
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1574362,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Switzerland",
"home_team_display_name": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"home_team_id": 10591,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10591.webp",
"home_team_name": "Z\u00fcrich II",
"home_team_public_id": "4l66dmMOXqZEOt",
"home_team_slug": "zurich-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "zurich-ii",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_country_display": "Switzerland",
"league_display_name": "1. Liga Promoci\u00f3n",
"league_id": 510,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/510.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Promoci\u00f3n",
"league_public_id": "0toRSZfpf2Yp3y",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3F2qRbWOyHy0CI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4721,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0671,
"ev": -0.1935,
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5127,
"draw": 0.2252,
"home": 0.2621
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4456
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1788,
"best_odd": 4.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.2252,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5127,
"draw": 0.2252,
"home": 0.2621
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2379
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2679,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0044,
"implied_prob": 0.2621,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5127,
"draw": 0.2252,
"home": 0.2621
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2812
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.182,
"ev": -0.3293,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.12,
"edge": 0.0533,
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.051,
"ev": 0.1805,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0849,
"alpha_yes": 0.1868,
"best_no_odd": 3.21,
"best_yes_odd": 1.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1586,
"edge_yes": -0.1586,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4606,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.05,
"ev_yes": -0.2915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1323,
"implied_no": 0.2964,
"implied_yes": 0.7036,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0849,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.2916,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3055
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1868,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1323,
"implied_prob": 0.7084,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6779
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3055,
"p_final_yes": 0.6779,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1671,
"alpha_under": 0.1215,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.14,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.945,
"edge_over": -0.2076,
"edge_under": 0.2076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1586,
"ev_under": 0.6265,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0351,
"implied_over": 0.6896,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6987,
"implied_under": 0.3104,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3013,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1671,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1586,
"implied_prob": 0.6987,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6625
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1215,
"best_odd": 2.945,
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3276
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6625,
"p_final_under": 0.3276,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6265,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6265,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6265,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6265,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6265,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Grand-Saconnex at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Grand-Saconnex as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Grand-Saconnex",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +62.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +62.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +62.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+62.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Grand-Saconnex).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0671,
"ev": -0.1935,
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Grand-Saconnex"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0139,
"market_prob": 0.2916,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0849,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.2916,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3055
},
"p_final": 0.3055,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.05,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1868,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1323,
"implied_prob": 0.7084,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6779
}
},
"edge": 0.1586,
"ev": 0.4606,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1215,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.945,
"edge": 0.0263,
"market_prob": 0.3013,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1671,
"best_odd": 1.27,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1586,
"implied_prob": 0.6987,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6625
},
"p_final": 0.3276,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0351,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1215,
"best_odd": 2.945,
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3276
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2076,
"ev": 0.6265,
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574362,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6265,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4606,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4606,
"implied_prob": 0.2964,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Grand-Saconnex",
"home": "Z\u00fcrich II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.227169,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6265,
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5127,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3294,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574362,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:02:23.627057+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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1. Liga Promoción — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Cham | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Bulle | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Paradiso | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | YF Juventus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Basilea II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | SC Brühl | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Young Boys II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Breitenrain | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 | Paradiso | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 | Bulle | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Young Boys II | 9 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | Basilea II | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 | Lugano II | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Cham | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | YF Juventus | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Luzern II | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | SC Brühl | 9 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Bavois | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Breitenrain | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
