AI correctly predicted the SV Horn win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 SV Horn SV Horn ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloggnitz | 27.9% | 38.9% | -11.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.1% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| SV Horn | 42.9% | 35.0% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Gloggnitz's win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (SV Horn win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SV Horn higher (53.9% vs model 42.9%, 11.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SV Horn win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gloggnitz 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · SV Horn 42.9%
- xG · Gloggnitz 1.14 — SV Horn 1.46
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gloggnitz 2.28 · Draw 3.40 · SV Horn 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Gloggnitz 38.9% · Draw 26.1% · SV Horn 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gloggnitz 2.28 · Draw 3.40 · SV Horn 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Gloggnitz 38.9% · Draw 26.1% · SV Horn 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SV Horn win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
15/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
SV Horn win · Gloggnitz 1–3 SV Horn
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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],
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}
],
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},
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},
"version": "v1"
},
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{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0324,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.14,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.14 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Gloggnitz",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SV Horn at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SV Horn as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SV Horn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0324,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gloggnitz 1.14 xG vs SV Horn 1.46 \u2192 SV Horn 42.9%",
"Market: Gloggnitz ~35.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Gloggnitz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SV Horn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.01,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob": 38.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "SV Horn",
"market_prob": 34.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.61,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.61,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob_pct": 38.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gloggnitz"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gloggnitz\u0027s win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SV Horn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gloggnitz 1.14 xG vs SV Horn 1.46 \u2192 SV Horn 42.9%",
"Market: Gloggnitz ~35.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Gloggnitz +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SV Horn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.01,
"hero_label": "Gloggnitz",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gloggnitz.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gloggnitz."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gloggnitz more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Gloggnitz (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Gloggnitz."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gloggnitz",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gloggnitz higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.01,
"edge_pp": -11.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gloggnitz",
"market_prob_pct": 38.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.09,
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.91,
"edge_pp": 7.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SV Horn",
"market_prob_pct": 34.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gloggnitz.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gloggnitz (35.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SV Horn, Market \u2192 Gloggnitz, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
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"clv_pp": 0.0,
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"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.28,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.28,
"pick_team": "Gloggnitz",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Gloggnitz",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sv-horn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SV Horn",
"away_team_id": 1397,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1397.webp",
"away_team_name": "SV Horn",
"away_team_public_id": "4xvOgXllZXCiVe",
"away_team_slug": "sv-horn",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1574098,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Gloggnitz",
"home_team_id": 4941,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4941.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gloggnitz",
"home_team_public_id": "15690ZeNnceKSB",
"home_team_slug": "gloggnitz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gloggnitz",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_public_id": "2TcTIsSni3IQjn",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 17:00:00",
"public_id": "5TyiBkdXwqgzMh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3965,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": -0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3495,
"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.3894
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.3809
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.286,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3495,
"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.3894
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.27
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3755,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0414,
"ev": -0.2067,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3495,
"draw": 0.2611,
"home": 0.3894
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.348
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.4288
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.1595,
"ev": -0.3637,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.2791
}
},
"btts": {
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"alpha_yes": 0.2186,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0761,
"edge_yes": -0.0761,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1088,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0526,
"ev_yes": -0.193,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1076,
"implied_no": 0.3859,
"implied_yes": 0.6141,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1589,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3964
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5989
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3964,
"p_final_yes": 0.5989,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2119,
"alpha_under": 0.1926,
"best_over_odd": 1.59,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.585,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.0949,
"edge_under": 0.0949,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2336,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1162,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"implied_over": 0.5769,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5779,
"implied_under": 0.4231,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4221,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1162,
"implied_prob": 0.5779,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5576
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1926,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4406
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5576,
"p_final_under": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.5,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SV Horn at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SV Horn as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SV Horn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Gloggnitz, but the model still strongly favours SV Horn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0324,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": -0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "SV Horn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0124,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3964
},
"p_final": 0.3964,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0526,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5989
}
},
"edge": 0.0761,
"ev": 0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1926,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0185,
"market_prob": 0.4221,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1162,
"implied_prob": 0.5779,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5576
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1926,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0949,
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4231,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1574098,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4288,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.2791
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4231,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4231,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SV Horn",
"home": "Gloggnitz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050266,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0324,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3495,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39370078740157477,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1574098,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T17:00:44.162375+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Este — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Wiener SC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Oberwart | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Parndorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Leobendorf | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Donau | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 9 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 9 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Wiener SC | 9 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 19 |
| 4 | Oberwart | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 5 | Wiener Viktoria | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Parndorf | 9 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Scheiblingkirchen | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Donau | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | SV Horn | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Krems / Rehberg | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Fach-Donaufeld | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gloggnitz | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Leobendorf | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Favoritner AC | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 9 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 0 |
