AI correctly predicted the Recreativo Huelva win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Recreativo Huelva Recreativo Huelva ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamaraceite | 33.3% | 25.7% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Recreativo Huelva | 37.1% | 44.9% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Recreativo Huelva's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Recreativo Huelva win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Recreativo Huelva. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Recreativo Huelva higher (45.0% vs model 37.1%, 7.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Recreativo Huelva win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tamaraceite 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Recreativo Huelva 37.0%
- xG · Tamaraceite 1.26 — Recreativo Huelva 1.34
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tamaraceite 3.56 · Draw 3.12 · Recreativo Huelva 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Tamaraceite 25.7% · Draw 29.4% · Recreativo Huelva 44.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tamaraceite 3.56 · Draw 3.12 · Recreativo Huelva 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Tamaraceite 25.7% · Draw 29.4% · Recreativo Huelva 44.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Recreativo Huelva win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
60/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Recreativo Huelva win · Tamaraceite 1–3 Recreativo Huelva
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a2d6e2b3c08c5ad66c2e06771c4be739036fceeb30b8150500a18e6e03bd5d1e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Tamaraceite or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Tamaraceite"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0785,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4491,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.04
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.04,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Recreativo Huelva Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.23,
"market_odds": 2.04,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -12.0,
"value_pct": -24.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Tamaraceite or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Tamaraceite or Recreativo Huelva",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Recreativo Huelva",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Tamaraceite or Recreativo Huelva",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Recreativo Huelva"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.5,
"implied_prob": 28.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Tamaraceite Win",
"model_prob": 33.3,
"odds": 3.56
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Recreativo Huelva",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.91,
"draw": 29.36,
"home": 25.73
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:01:00",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 10:31:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Tamaraceite",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.73,
"gap_pp": 7.62,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.36,
"gap_pp": 0.24,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.91,
"gap_pp": -7.85,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.98,
"gap_pp": 7.22,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.02,
"gap_pp": -7.22,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.56,
"early": 3.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.12,
"early": 3.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.91,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.98,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.02,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"p_final": 0.4271,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0604,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0604,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.9,
"text": "+10.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1086,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10247.74,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0148,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4712,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2201,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5126
},
"p_final": 0.4859,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0491,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4859
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0628,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10056.52,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1475,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0119,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2442,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"sort_key": 1797.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"alert_team": "Tamaraceite",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.85,
"hero_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"market_team": "Recreativo Huelva",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Recreativo Huelva",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recreativo Huelva at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recreativo Huelva as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recreativo Huelva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Recreativo Huelva \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572973 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1475,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2442,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"steam_team": "Tamaraceite",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recreativo Huelva at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recreativo Huelva as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recreativo Huelva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Recreativo Huelva \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572973 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1475,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2442,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tamaraceite 1.26 xG vs Recreativo Huelva 1.34 \u2192 Recreativo Huelva 37.1%",
"Market: Recreativo Huelva ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Tamaraceite odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Recreativo Huelva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.58,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Tamaraceite",
"market_prob": 25.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.27,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"market_prob": 44.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.19,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.19,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Recreativo Huelva",
"market_prob_pct": 44.91,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tamaraceite"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Recreativo Huelva\u0027s win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Recreativo Huelva \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tamaraceite 1.26 xG vs Recreativo Huelva 1.34 \u2192 Recreativo Huelva 37.1%",
"Market: Recreativo Huelva ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Tamaraceite odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Recreativo Huelva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.85,
"hero_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tamaraceite odds lengthened \u2191 +14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Tamaraceite has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Recreativo Huelva. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Tamaraceite \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Recreativo Huelva. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Tamaraceite has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Tamaraceite \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Recreativo Huelva above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Tamaraceite has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Tamaraceite."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Recreativo Huelva higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.58,
"edge_pp": 7.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tamaraceite",
"market_prob_pct": 25.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.27,
"edge_pp": 0.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.85,
"edge_pp": -7.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Recreativo Huelva",
"market_prob_pct": 44.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Tamaraceite \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Recreativo Huelva (44.9%).",
"However, Tamaraceite has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.5%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Recreativo Huelva \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Tamaraceite (14.5%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.56",
"3.09",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.56 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 75h 45m",
"pick_team": "Tamaraceite",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.56,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Tamaraceite",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tamaraceite",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tamaraceite",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Tamaraceite",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Tamaraceite",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "recreativo-huelva",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Recreativo Huelva",
"away_team_id": 9410,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9410.webp",
"away_team_name": "Recreativo Huelva",
"away_team_public_id": "13IY1KAxuATN3J",
"away_team_slug": "recreativo-huelva",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572973,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Tamaraceite",
"home_team_id": 9415,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9415.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tamaraceite",
"home_team_public_id": "3EnX9k4oLgu0Lf",
"home_team_slug": "tamaraceite",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tamaraceite",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 4",
"league_id": 878,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 4",
"league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:00:00",
"public_id": "0qpOpSarP6vuJp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.397,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4491,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2573
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.2936,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4491,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2573
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2943
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2657,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.2573,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4491,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2573
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.2776
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1197,
"ev": -0.2441,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0526,
"ev": 0.1872,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2201,
"alpha_yes": 0.2001,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0719,
"edge_yes": 0.0719,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1209,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"implied_no": 0.5269,
"implied_yes": 0.4731,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2201,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5126
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4859
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5126,
"p_final_yes": 0.4859,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1623,
"alpha_under": 0.2232,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0648,
"edge_under": -0.0648,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0604,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1068,
"implied_over": 0.4172,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4164,
"implied_under": 0.5828,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5836,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4271,
"p_final_under": 0.5689,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1872,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Recreativo Huelva at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Recreativo Huelva as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Recreativo Huelva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Recreativo Huelva \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572973 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Recreativo Huelva).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1475,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2442,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Recreativo Huelva"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.4712,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2201,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5126
},
"p_final": 0.4859,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4859
}
},
"edge": 0.0719,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4731,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4271
},
"p_final": 0.4271,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0604,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0648,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4172,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572973,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4731,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4731,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Recreativo Huelva",
"home": "Tamaraceite"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036642,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4172,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1475,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2442,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572973,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T11:01:02.445105+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Tamaraceite & Recreativo Huelva!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda Federación - Grupo 4 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis Deportivo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | CD Badajoz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Marbella | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | CD Estepona | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Puente Genil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlético Central | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Las Palmas Atlético | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | CD Antoniano | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis Deportivo | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Don Benito | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla Atlético | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Tenerife II | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Marbella | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Puente Genil | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Sanluqueño | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Badajoz | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Atlético Central | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | CD Estepona | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ciudad de Lucena | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | CD Antoniano | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Xerez | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Las Palmas Atlético | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Tamaraceite | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
