AI correctly predicted the CD Alcoyano win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 CD Alcoyano CD Alcoyano ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- CD Alcoyano attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (CD Alcoyano win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Mallorca B 1.08 — CD Alcoyano 1.52
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CD Alcoyano win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CD Alcoyano win · Mallorca B 0–1 CD Alcoyano
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0315,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"alert_team": "Mallorca B",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
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"hero_edge_pp": 5.69,
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"market_prob_pct": 40.1,
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"summary": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano."
},
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CD Alcoyano at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CD Alcoyano as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CD Alcoyano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.69,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.08,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.08 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"steam_team": "Mallorca B",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CD Alcoyano at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CD Alcoyano as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CD Alcoyano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mallorca B 1.08 xG vs CD Alcoyano 1.52 \u2192 CD Alcoyano 45.8%",
"Market: CD Alcoyano ~40.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Mallorca B \u2193 -11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CD Alcoyano, but sharp money moved toward Mallorca B.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob": 25.37,
"label": "Mallorca B",
"market_prob": 27.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.69,
"fair_prob": 45.82,
"label": "CD Alcoyano",
"market_prob": 40.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.92,
"fair_prob": 53.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob": 46.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "CD Alcoyano",
"market_prob_pct": 40.13,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Mallorca B"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates CD Alcoyano\u0027s win probability at 45.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 40.1%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "CD Alcoyano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mallorca B 1.08 xG vs CD Alcoyano 1.52 \u2192 CD Alcoyano 45.8%",
"Market: CD Alcoyano ~40.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Mallorca B \u2193 -11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CD Alcoyano, but sharp money moved toward Mallorca B.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.69,
"hero_label": "CD Alcoyano",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Mallorca B odds shortened \u2193 -11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Mallorca B, with odds shortening by 11.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CD Alcoyano.",
"note": "Buying interest on Mallorca B \u2014 odds shortened by 11.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CD Alcoyano.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Mallorca B, with odds shortening by 11.4%.",
"Buying interest on Mallorca B \u2014 odds shortened by 11.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CD Alcoyano.",
"At the same time, Mallorca B has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Mallorca B."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.0 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.0,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CD Alcoyano",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.7,
"lead": "The model rates CD Alcoyano considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.94,
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mallorca B",
"market_prob_pct": 27.31,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.75,
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.69,
"edge_pp": 5.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.82,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CD Alcoyano",
"market_prob_pct": 40.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Mallorca B \u2014 odds shortened by 11.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CD Alcoyano (40.1%).",
"However, Mallorca B has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.4%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CD Alcoyano, Market \u2192 CD Alcoyano, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mallorca B.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 69h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Mallorca B (11.4%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.30",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.76 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 69h 45m",
"pick_team": "Mallorca B",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.76"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.35,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Mallorca B \u2193 -11.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mallorca B",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Mallorca B \u2193 -11.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Mallorca B while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Mallorca B",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Mallorca B",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Mallorca B",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "alcoyano",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CD Alcoyano",
"away_team_id": 9686,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9686.webp",
"away_team_name": "CD Alcoyano",
"away_team_public_id": "2YhiGzpJT9G22Q",
"away_team_slug": "alcoyano",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572684,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Mallorca B",
"home_team_id": 9783,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9783.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mallorca B",
"home_team_public_id": "2SRbKlGMvyTJiK",
"home_team_slug": "mallorca-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mallorca-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 3",
"league_id": 877,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/877.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 3",
"league_public_id": "20Q4MJCVOREU7Q",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 10:00:00",
"public_id": "48JocZzY4uCxgb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4115,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4013,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2731
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.4248
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4246,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.3256,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4013,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2731
},
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.3096
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2912,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.1041,
"implied_prob": 0.2731,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4013,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.2731
},
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.2674
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": 0.0451,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.4584
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0679,
"ev": -0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0449,
"ev": -0.1503,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2536
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2105,
"alpha_yes": 0.1914,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.17,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0992,
"edge_yes": 0.0992,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2278,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1254,
"ev_yes": 0.1544,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0519,
"implied_no": 0.5672,
"implied_yes": 0.4328,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.5466
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"p_final": 0.4515
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5466,
"p_final_yes": 0.4515,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1459,
"alpha_under": 0.2006,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.43,
"edge_over": 0.1236,
"edge_under": -0.1236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.031,
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1149,
"implied_over": 0.3584,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3557,
"implied_under": 0.6416,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6443,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3741
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2006,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.6443,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6189
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3741,
"p_final_under": 0.6189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CD Alcoyano at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CD Alcoyano as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CD Alcoyano",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mallorca B, but the model still strongly favours CD Alcoyano.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CD Alcoyano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.4324,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1254,
"implied_prob": 0.5676,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"p_final": 0.5466
},
"p_final": 0.4515,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.4324,
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"p_final": 0.4515
}
},
"edge": 0.0992,
"ev": 0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.3557,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3741
},
"p_final": 0.3741,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2006,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.6443,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6189
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1236,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572684,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4584,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.2536
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.532,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CD Alcoyano",
"home": "Mallorca B"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088669,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572684,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T10:00:31.226861+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Federación - Grupo 3 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | CD Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | UCAM Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Elche B | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Mallorca B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Valencia B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia Imperial | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón B | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | UCAM Murcia | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | La Nucía | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Castellonense | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Elche B | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | CD Alcoyano | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Valencia B | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Yeclano | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Real Murcia Imperial | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Mallorca B | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
