The model missed the final outcome (Ourense CF win 0–1).
The model had projected SD Amorebieta at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 SD Amorebieta Ourense CF ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD Amorebieta | 36.1% | 40.8% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.3% | -2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Ourense CF | 34.2% | 26.8% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Ourense CF's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.8%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Ourense CF win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ourense CF.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SD Amorebieta by 7.4 percentage points (28.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SD Amorebieta 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ourense CF 34.2%
- xG · SD Amorebieta 1.32 — Ourense CF 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SD Amorebieta 2.24 · Draw 2.83 · Ourense CF 3.41
- Implied 1X2 · SD Amorebieta 40.8% · Draw 32.3% · Ourense CF 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SD Amorebieta 2.24 · Draw 2.83 · Ourense CF 3.41
- Implied 1X2 · SD Amorebieta 40.8% · Draw 32.3% · Ourense CF 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ourense CF win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ourense CF win · SD Amorebieta 0–1 Ourense CF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"pick_key": "12",
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1296,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0177,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SD Amorebieta",
"sort_key": 1795.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Ourense CF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.41,
"hero_label": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"market_team": "SD Amorebieta",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "SD Amorebieta",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1676,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SD Amorebieta at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SD Amorebieta as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SD Amorebieta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SD Amorebieta \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572057 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1296,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.41,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Ourense CF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1676,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SD Amorebieta at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SD Amorebieta as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SD Amorebieta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SD Amorebieta \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572057 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1296,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SD Amorebieta 1.32 xG vs Ourense CF 1.28 \u2192 SD Amorebieta 36.1%",
"Market: SD Amorebieta ~40.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Ourense CF \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SD Amorebieta, but sharp money moved toward Ourense CF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "SD Amorebieta",
"market_prob": 40.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.68,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.41,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob": 26.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.83,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob_pct": 26.83,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Ourense CF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ourense CF\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.8%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SD Amorebieta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SD Amorebieta 1.32 xG vs Ourense CF 1.28 \u2192 SD Amorebieta 36.1%",
"Market: SD Amorebieta ~40.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Ourense CF \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SD Amorebieta, but sharp money moved toward Ourense CF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.41,
"hero_label": "Ourense CF",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ourense CF odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ourense CF.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ourense CF.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ourense CF.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ourense CF."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ourense CF.",
"Recent line movement on Ourense CF (\u2193 -17.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Ourense CF."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Ourense CF",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.4,
"lead": "The model rates Ourense CF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.73,
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SD Amorebieta",
"market_prob_pct": 40.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.68,
"edge_pp": -2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.41,
"edge_pp": 7.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ourense CF",
"market_prob_pct": 26.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ourense CF.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SD Amorebieta (40.8%).",
"However, Ourense CF has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SD Amorebieta, Market \u2192 SD Amorebieta, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ourense CF.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.33,
"closing_odds": 3.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.33,
"entry_odds": 3.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Ourense CF (17.1% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.20",
"2.90"
],
"display": "4.04 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Ourense CF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.04"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.41,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,2.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ourense CF \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ourense CF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ourense CF \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Ourense CF while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ourense CF",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Ourense CF",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Ourense CF",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ourense-cf",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ourense CF",
"away_team_id": 9612,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9612.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ourense CF",
"away_team_public_id": "3hu3xEEf3tAVOq",
"away_team_slug": "ourense-cf",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1572057,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "SD Amorebieta",
"home_team_id": 9380,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9380.webp",
"home_team_name": "SD Amorebieta",
"home_team_public_id": "3WT9NjBZ5ldZxO",
"home_team_slug": "amorebieta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "amorebieta",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 875,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/875.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "2MK1lOWXhKWZpA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:00:00",
"public_id": "5K2SUHuScmG1iN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "SD Amorebieta-Etxano",
"venue_name": "Campo Municipal de Urritxe"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2667,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2683,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2683,
"draw": 0.3233,
"home": 0.4084
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.432,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1177,
"implied_prob": 0.3233,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2683,
"draw": 0.3233,
"home": 0.4084
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3118
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4179,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1296,
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2683,
"draw": 0.3233,
"home": 0.4084
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3886
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.1676,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0567,
"ev": -0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0855,
"ev": -0.1915,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2091,
"alpha_yes": 0.2091,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0483,
"edge_yes": 0.0483,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1091,
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0733,
"implied_no": 0.5033,
"implied_yes": 0.4967,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4922
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5078
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4922,
"p_final_yes": 0.5078,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2085,
"alpha_under": 0.2294,
"best_over_odd": 2.18,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0448,
"edge_under": -0.0448,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0508,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"implied_over": 0.4372,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4332,
"implied_under": 0.5628,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5668,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4433
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5556
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4433,
"p_final_under": 0.5556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1676,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0508,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1676,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SD Amorebieta at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SD Amorebieta as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SD Amorebieta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SD Amorebieta \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572057 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Ourense CF, but the model still strongly favours SD Amorebieta.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1296,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1296,
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SD Amorebieta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4979,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4922
},
"p_final": 0.5078,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0733,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2091,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0733,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5078
}
},
"edge": 0.0483,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4967,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4433
},
"p_final": 0.4433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5556
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4372,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1572057,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0508,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ourense CF",
"home": "SD Amorebieta"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.01714,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4372,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1296,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1916,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1572057,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:00:36.128086+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Federación - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika Club | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | SD Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo Vetusta | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing de Santander B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika Club | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés B | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar B | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | SD Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo Vetusta | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing de Santander B | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
