AI correctly predicted the Diósgyőri VTK win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Diósgyőri VTK Diósgyőri VTK ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diósgyőri VTK | 37.5% | 42.7% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Gyirmót SE | 32.9% | 32.4% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Diósgyőri VTK's win probability at 42.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Diósgyőri VTK win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Diósgyőri VTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Diósgyőri VTK higher (42.6% vs model 37.5%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Diósgyőri VTK win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Diósgyőri VTK 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Gyirmót SE 32.9%
- xG · Diósgyőri VTK 1.35 — Gyirmót SE 1.25
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Diósgyőri VTK 2.12 · Draw 3.64 · Gyirmót SE 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Diósgyőri VTK 42.7% · Draw 24.9% · Gyirmót SE 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Diósgyőri VTK 2.12 · Draw 3.64 · Gyirmót SE 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Diósgyőri VTK 42.7% · Draw 24.9% · Gyirmót SE 32.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Diósgyőri VTK win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Diósgyőri VTK win · Diósgyőri VTK 2–0 Gyirmót SE
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
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"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
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],
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"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
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"model_lean": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2035,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.15,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"steam_team": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2035,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK 1.35 xG vs Gyirm\u00f3t SE 1.25 \u2192 Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK 37.5%",
"Market: Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK ~42.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Gyirm\u00f3t SE odds \u2191 +7.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"market_prob": 42.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.74,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"market_prob": 32.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"market_prob_pct": 42.69,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK\u0027s win probability at 42.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK 1.35 xG vs Gyirm\u00f3t SE 1.25 \u2192 Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK 37.5%",
"Market: Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK ~42.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Gyirm\u00f3t SE odds \u2191 +7.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.15,
"hero_label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE odds lengthened \u2191 +7.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gyirm\u00f3t SE has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Gyirm\u00f3t SE has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gyirm\u00f3t SE has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.15,
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"market_prob_pct": 42.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.74,
"edge_pp": 4.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.87,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.41,
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"market_prob_pct": 32.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK (42.7%).",
"Gyirm\u00f3t SE odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.6%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 80h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Gyirm\u00f3t SE (swing 3.10 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 7.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.95",
"2.79"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 80h 13m",
"pick_team": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.79,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.8 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gyirmot-se",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"away_team_id": 2398,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2398.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"away_team_public_id": "5JWYloR3IahM2Z",
"away_team_slug": "gyirmot-se",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1571847,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"home_team_id": 2393,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2393.webp",
"home_team_name": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"home_team_public_id": "2ukFtjfgzPO4KI",
"home_team_slug": "diosgyori-vtk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "diosgyori-vtk",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "Nemzeti Bajnoks\u00e1g II",
"league_id": 272,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/272.webp",
"league_name": "Nemzeti Bajnoks\u00e1g II",
"league_public_id": "2qQWLTy3pxCflr",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "5AaR2nDAYNhGCW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Miskolc",
"venue_name": "DVTK Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4471,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.3244,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3244,
"draw": 0.2487,
"home": 0.4269
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3263
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.2487,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3244,
"draw": 0.2487,
"home": 0.4269
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2618
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4154,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3244,
"draw": 0.2487,
"home": 0.4269
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4056
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0297,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0761,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.096,
"ev": -0.2036,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2159,
"alpha_yes": 0.2375,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0288,
"edge_yes": -0.0288,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0035,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0843,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1066,
"implied_no": 0.4262,
"implied_yes": 0.5738,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2159,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2375,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5654
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.434,
"p_final_yes": 0.5654,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2262,
"alpha_under": 0.2057,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.99,
"edge_over": -0.0579,
"edge_under": 0.0579,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"implied_over": 0.5399,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5393,
"implied_under": 0.4601,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5263,
"p_final_under": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0774,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0774,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2035,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2159,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0058,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2159,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.434
},
"p_final": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0843,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2375,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5654
}
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4262,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2262,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5263
},
"p_final": 0.4725,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2057,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4725
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0579,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1571847,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gyirm\u00f3t SE",
"home": "Di\u00f3sgy\u0151ri VTK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028065,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4601,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1401,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2035,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571847,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:01:24.962672+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nemzeti Bajnokság II — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksár SC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Ajka | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Gyirmót SE | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Karcag SE | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Diósgyőri VTK | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | BVSC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Csákvár | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksár SC | 8 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 20 |
| 2 | Tiszakecske FC | 8 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Karcag SE | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 | Gyirmót SE | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Ajka | 7 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Diósgyőri VTK | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Csákvár | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | BVSC | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
