The model missed the final outcome (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 0–1).
The model had projected Yantra 2019 at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Yantra 2019 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yantra 2019 | 45.3% | 56.2% | -10.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.1% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 25.8% | 17.7% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Yantra 2019's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Yantra 2019 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Yantra 2019 by 10.9 percentage points (56.2% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yantra 2019 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 25.8%
- xG · Yantra 2019 1.51 — Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.09
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yantra 2019 1.58 · Draw 3.41 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 5.02
- Implied 1X2 · Yantra 2019 56.2% · Draw 26.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 17.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Yantra 2019 1.58 · Draw 3.41 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 5.02
- Implied 1X2 · Yantra 2019 56.2% · Draw 26.1% · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 17.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win · Yantra 2019 0–1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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{
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yantra 2019 at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
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"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yantra 2019 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571573 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1982,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2846,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.09,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.51,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.51,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.51 \u00b7 Away xG 1.09 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +12%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"steam_team": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2948,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yantra 2019 at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yantra 2019 as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yantra 2019",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yantra 2019 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571573 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1982,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2846,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yantra 2019 1.51 xG vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.09 \u2192 Yantra 2019 45.3%",
"Market: Yantra 2019 ~56.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2193 -12.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Yantra 2019, but sharp money moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.91,
"fair_prob": 45.33,
"label": "Yantra 2019",
"market_prob": 56.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.82,
"fair_prob": 28.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.09,
"fair_prob": 25.79,
"label": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"market_prob": 17.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.84,
"fair_prob": 53.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.84,
"fair_prob": 46.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Yantra 2019",
"market_prob_pct": 56.24,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Yantra 2019\u0027s win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Yantra 2019",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 45.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Yantra 2019 1.51 xG vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.09 \u2192 Yantra 2019 45.3%",
"Market: Yantra 2019 ~56.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2193 -12.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Yantra 2019, but sharp money moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.91,
"hero_label": "Yantra 2019",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa odds shortened \u2193 -12.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, with odds shortening by 12.0%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Yantra 2019 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2014 odds shortened by 12.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Yantra 2019 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, with odds shortening by 12.0%.",
"Buying interest on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2014 odds shortened by 12.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Yantra 2019 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.4 pp (at 45.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.4,
"max_prob_pct": 45.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Yantra 2019",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Yantra 2019 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.91,
"edge_pp": -10.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Yantra 2019",
"market_prob_pct": 56.24,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.82,
"edge_pp": 2.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.09,
"edge_pp": 8.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.79,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"market_prob_pct": 17.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2014 odds shortened by 12.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Yantra 2019 (56.2%).",
"However, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -12.0%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Yantra 2019, Market \u2192 Yantra 2019, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 63.29,
"closing_odds": 1.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 63.29,
"entry_odds": 1.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 7m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (12.0%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.25",
"5.63",
"5.02"
],
"display": "7.50 \u2192 5.02 \u2192 5.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 7m",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.25,
5.02,
5.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.02"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2193 -12.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa \u2193 -12.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"open_odds": 6.25,
"pick_team": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lokomotiv-g-oryahovitsa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"away_team_id": 1420,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1420.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"away_team_public_id": "3HKvZht5koF2Xd",
"away_team_slug": "lokomotiv-g-oryahovitsa",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1571573,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Yantra 2019",
"home_team_id": 8528,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8528.webp",
"home_team_name": "Yantra 2019",
"home_team_public_id": "15a4NtIhD1jnib",
"home_team_slug": "yantra-2019",
"ht.home_team_slug": "yantra-2019",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "1iWu3HXy1qf6Ut",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3anebNcQzAKxwe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gabrovo",
"venue_name": "Stadion Hristo Botev"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1757,
"best_odd": 5.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.177,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.177,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.5624
},
"model_prob": 0.2579,
"p_final": 0.1912
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2871,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0834,
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.177,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.5624
},
"model_prob": 0.2892,
"p_final": 0.2688
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5014,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0549,
"ev": -0.1982,
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.177,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.5624
},
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"p_final": 0.5075
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.02,
"edge": 0.0587,
"ev": 0.2948,
"implied_prob": 0.1992,
"model_prob": 0.2579
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.41,
"edge": -0.004,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"model_prob": 0.2892
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.1801,
"ev": -0.2845,
"implied_prob": 0.6329,
"model_prob": 0.4528
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2115,
"alpha_yes": 0.1923,
"best_no_odd": 1.63,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0984,
"edge_yes": 0.0984,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2388,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"ev_yes": 0.1459,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0474,
"implied_no": 0.5654,
"implied_yes": 0.4346,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5639,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.5434
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.4547
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5434,
"p_final_yes": 0.4547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2124,
"alpha_under": 0.2337,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0284,
"edge_under": -0.0284,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0675,
"ev_under": -0.0624,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0982,
"implied_over": 0.4536,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4447,
"implied_under": 0.5464,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5553,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4527
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2337,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5466
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4527,
"p_final_under": 0.5466,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2948,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1459,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2948,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yantra 2019 at 45.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yantra 2019 as the value side (45.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yantra 2019",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Yantra 2019 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.43 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1571573 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.43 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, but the model still strongly favours Yantra 2019.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1982,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2846,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.533,
"draw_prob": 0.2892,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4528,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.42
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0549,
"ev": -0.1982,
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Yantra 2019"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.095,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.4361,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.533,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5639,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.5434
},
"p_final": 0.4547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0474,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 2.095,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.4547
}
},
"edge": 0.0984,
"ev": 0.1459,
"implied_prob": 0.4346,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0079,
"market_prob": 0.4447,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0675,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4527
},
"p_final": 0.4527,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0675,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2337,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5466
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1571573,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1459,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2579,
"draw": 0.2892,
"home": 0.4528
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa",
"home": "Yantra 2019"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077765,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1459,
"implied_prob": 0.4346,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.533,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1982,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.58,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5624,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4528,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6329113924050632,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2846,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1571573,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:56:32.788529+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga de Bulgaria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Nesebar | 11 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Fratria | 11 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Beroe | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 | Montana | 11 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 | Dobrudzha | 11 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Marek | 11 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Ludogorets II | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 |
