AI correctly predicted the Zamora CF win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Zamora CF Zamora CF ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extremadura 1924 | 32.9% | 40.7% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.7% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Zamora CF | 37.5% | 26.6% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Zamora CF's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Zamora CF win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zamora CF.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zamora CF more conservatively (26.6% vs model 37.5%, 10.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zamora CF win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Zamora CF 37.6%
- xG · Extremadura 1924 1.25 — Zamora CF 1.35
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Extremadura 1924 2.25 · Draw 2.80 · Zamora CF 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 40.7% · Draw 32.7% · Zamora CF 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Extremadura 1924 2.25 · Draw 2.80 · Zamora CF 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Extremadura 1924 40.7% · Draw 32.7% · Zamora CF 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zamora CF win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
15/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Zamora CF win · Extremadura 1924 0–1 Zamora CF
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.01,
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"raw_pct": 1.0,
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},
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},
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"side_label": "Zamora CF",
"sort_key": 5208.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"alert_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.93,
"hero_label": "Zamora CF",
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"market_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Zamora CF",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora CF at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora CF as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Zamora CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2924,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"steam_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora CF at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora CF as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Zamora CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2924,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Extremadura 1924 1.25 xG vs Zamora CF 1.35 \u2192 Zamora CF 37.5%",
"Market: Extremadura 1924 ~26.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Extremadura 1924 odds \u2191 +4.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zamora CF with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.84,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob": 40.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.93,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Zamora CF",
"market_prob": 26.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.47,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.47,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Zamora CF",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Extremadura 1924"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Zamora CF\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Zamora CF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Zamora CF \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Extremadura 1924 1.25 xG vs Zamora CF 1.35 \u2192 Zamora CF 37.5%",
"Market: Extremadura 1924 ~26.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Extremadura 1924 odds \u2191 +4.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zamora CF with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.93,
"hero_label": "Zamora CF",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Extremadura 1924 odds lengthened \u2191 +4.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Extremadura 1924 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zamora CF.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zamora CF.",
"However, Extremadura 1924 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Zamora CF more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Extremadura 1924 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Zamora CF",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.9,
"lead": "The model rates Zamora CF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.84,
"edge_pp": -7.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Extremadura 1924",
"market_prob_pct": 40.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.09,
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.93,
"edge_pp": 10.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zamora CF",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Extremadura 1924 (26.6%).",
"Extremadura 1924 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.9%, 2/6) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zamora CF, Market \u2192 Extremadura 1924, while Extremadura 1924 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"closing_odds": 3.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.07,
"entry_odds": 3.44,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 69h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Extremadura 1924 (swing 2.43 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.15) \u2014 net 4.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.15",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.43 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 69h 45m",
"pick_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.25,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Extremadura 1924",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Extremadura 1924",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zamora",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zamora CF",
"away_team_id": 9418,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9418.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zamora CF",
"away_team_public_id": "1JvB2YiPsJO7xL",
"away_team_slug": "zamora",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570759,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"home_team_id": 24612,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24612.webp",
"home_team_name": "Extremadura 1924",
"home_team_public_id": "3AXqOxFtaX3kZx",
"home_team_slug": "extremadura-1924",
"ht.home_team_slug": "extremadura-1924",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 10:00:00",
"public_id": "2x2sv4q7YvQuFd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Almendralejo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Francisco de la Hera"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2661,
"draw": 0.327,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2936
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4289,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0134,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2661,
"draw": 0.327,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3135
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3972,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2661,
"draw": 0.327,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3758
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.085,
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0615,
"ev": -0.1722,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.1157,
"ev": -0.2604,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2199,
"alpha_yes": 0.1999,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0747,
"edge_yes": 0.0747,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0581,
"implied_no": 0.5297,
"implied_yes": 0.4703,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.513
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1999,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4855
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.513,
"p_final_yes": 0.4855,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1583,
"alpha_under": 0.2176,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.0781,
"edge_under": -0.0781,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1112,
"implied_over": 0.4039,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4016,
"implied_under": 0.5961,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5984,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5809
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4143,
"p_final_under": 0.5809,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2923,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zamora CF at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zamora CF as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zamora CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Zamora CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zamora CF).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2924,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Zamora CF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1999,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.4707,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.513
},
"p_final": 0.4855,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0581,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1999,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4855
}
},
"edge": 0.0747,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1583,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0175,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5809
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0781,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570759,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4039,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zamora CF",
"home": "Extremadura 1924"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29069767441860467,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2924,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570759,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T10:00:13.811639+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Federación - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Athletic Club B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruña B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Mirandés | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing de Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo CF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mérida AD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas de Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Athletic Club B | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mirandés | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Coria | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Lugo | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña B | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Cacereño | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Zamora CF | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing de Ferrol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mérida AD | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Arenas de Getxo | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Barakaldo CF | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
