AI correctly predicted the FC Barcelona win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 FC Barcelona FC Barcelona ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-2, 0-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-3 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC | 13.2% | 9.3% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 21.9% | 13.8% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| FC Barcelona | 64.9% | 76.9% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates FC Barcelona's win probability at 76.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 64.9%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (FC Barcelona win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about FC Barcelona than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.01) — 4 goals materialised
- FC Barcelona attacking xG significantly stronger (2.13 vs 0.88)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Barcelona higher (77.0% vs model 64.9%, 12.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Barcelona win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sevilla FC 13.2% · Draw 21.9% · FC Barcelona 64.9%
- xG · Sevilla FC 0.88 — FC Barcelona 2.13
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sevilla FC 10.34 · Draw 6.99 · FC Barcelona 1.25
- Implied 1X2 · Sevilla FC 9.3% · Draw 13.8% · FC Barcelona 76.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sevilla FC 10.34 · Draw 6.99 · FC Barcelona 1.25
- Implied 1X2 · Sevilla FC 9.3% · Draw 13.8% · FC Barcelona 76.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Barcelona win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (58%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
39/100
Betting Confidence
40/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
FC Barcelona win · Sevilla FC 1–3 FC Barcelona
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
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"id": "1x2",
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"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
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"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.05,
"hero_label": "FC Barcelona",
"market_prob_pct": 76.9,
"market_team": "FC Barcelona",
"model_prob_pct": 64.9,
"model_team": "FC Barcelona",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5156,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.532,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Barcelona at 64.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 76.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Barcelona as the value side (64.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Barcelona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.649,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 58%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.25"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.25
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (58%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.05,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.13,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 58.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 0.88,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.13,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 0.88 \u00b7 Away xG 2.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +58%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5156,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.532,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Barcelona at 64.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 76.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Barcelona as the value side (64.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Barcelona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.649,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 58%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.25"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.25
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sevilla FC 0.88 xG vs FC Barcelona 2.13 \u2192 FC Barcelona 64.9%",
"Market: FC Barcelona ~76.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +13.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FC Barcelona projects stronger on expected goals (+1.25 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob": 13.2,
"label": "Sevilla FC",
"market_prob": 9.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.16,
"fair_prob": 21.92,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 13.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.05,
"fair_prob": 64.89,
"label": "FC Barcelona",
"market_prob": 76.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.34,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 72.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 27.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.45,
"fair_prob": 52.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.45,
"fair_prob": 47.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.89,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FC Barcelona",
"market_prob_pct": 76.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Barcelona\u0027s win probability at 76.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 64.9%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "FC Barcelona",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 76.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.0,
"model_prob_pct": 64.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "FC Barcelona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sevilla FC 0.88 xG vs FC Barcelona 2.13 \u2192 FC Barcelona 64.9%",
"Market: FC Barcelona ~76.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +13.0%"
],
"one_liner": "FC Barcelona projects stronger on expected goals (+1.25 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.05,
"hero_label": "FC Barcelona",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +13.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Barcelona than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FC Barcelona than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FC Barcelona more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 43.0 pp (at 64.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 43.0,
"max_prob_pct": 64.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Barcelona",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Barcelona higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.9,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sevilla FC",
"market_prob_pct": 9.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.16,
"edge_pp": 8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 13.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.05,
"edge_pp": -12.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.89,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Barcelona",
"market_prob_pct": 76.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Barcelona (76.9%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +13.0%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FC Barcelona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 80.0,
"closing_odds": 1.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 80.0,
"entry_odds": 1.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (13.0%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.99",
"6.37",
"5.75"
],
"display": "7.00 \u2192 5.42 \u2192 6.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 27m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.75,
6.99,
6.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"open_odds": 5.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "barcelona",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Barcelona",
"away_team_id": 529,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/529.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Barcelona",
"away_team_public_id": "4bIpy330ksdq9G",
"away_team_slug": "barcelona",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570400,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Sevilla FC",
"home_team_id": 536,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/536.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sevilla FC",
"home_team_public_id": "0b7lL05Q9mJcIl",
"home_team_slug": "sevilla",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sevilla",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "LaLiga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "LaLiga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 19:00:00",
"public_id": "2cuOuOgNkya67x",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Seville",
"venue_name": "Estadio Ram\u00f3n S\u00e1nchez-Pizju\u00e1n"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4916,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.7694,
"draw": 0.1376,
"home": 0.093
},
"model_prob": 0.649,
"p_final": 0.7102
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1755,
"best_odd": 6.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": 0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.1376,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.7694,
"draw": 0.1376,
"home": 0.093
},
"model_prob": 0.2192,
"p_final": 0.1519
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1883,
"best_odd": 10.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.093,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.7694,
"draw": 0.1376,
"home": 0.093
},
"model_prob": 0.1319,
"p_final": 0.1003
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.151,
"ev": -0.1888,
"implied_prob": 0.8,
"model_prob": 0.649
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 6.99,
"edge": 0.0761,
"ev": 0.532,
"implied_prob": 0.1431,
"model_prob": 0.2192
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 10.34,
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.3633,
"implied_prob": 0.0967,
"model_prob": 0.1319
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3884,
"alpha_yes": 0.534,
"best_no_odd": 2.37,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0545,
"edge_yes": -0.0545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1186,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0291,
"ev_yes": -0.1446,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.115,
"implied_no": 0.4175,
"implied_yes": 0.5825,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3884,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"p_final": 0.4413
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.534,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4413,
"p_final_yes": 0.5514,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4546,
"alpha_under": 0.2066,
"best_over_odd": 1.31,
"best_under_odd": 3.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.295,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.345,
"edge_over": -0.1434,
"edge_under": 0.1434,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2415,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.15,
"ev_under": 0.5156,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0317,
"implied_over": 0.7224,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7209,
"implied_under": 0.2776,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2791,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4546,
"best_odd": 1.295,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.15,
"implied_prob": 0.7209,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.6564
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 3.345,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2791,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3084
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6564,
"p_final_under": 0.3084,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5156,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.532,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5156,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5156,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.532,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Barcelona at 64.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 76.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Barcelona as the value side (64.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Barcelona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +51.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +51.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +51.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+51.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Barcelona).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.649,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 58%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.25"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.25
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.528,
"draw_prob": 0.2192,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.649,
"over_prob": 0.579,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"under_prob": 0.421,
"xg_diff": 1.25
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.1376,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2192,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.093,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1319,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sevilla FC",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.649,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Barcelona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3884,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0195,
"market_prob": 0.4218,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.472,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3884,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.4218,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"p_final": 0.4413
},
"p_final": 0.4413,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0291,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.534,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.5782,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"p_final": 0.5514
}
},
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"model_prob": 0.472,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.345,
"edge": 0.0293,
"market_prob": 0.2791,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4546,
"best_odd": 1.295,
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.15,
"implied_prob": 0.7209,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.6564
},
"p_final": 0.3084,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0317,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2066,
"best_odd": 3.345,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2791,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.3084
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1434,
"ev": 0.5156,
"implied_prob": 0.2776,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1570400,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5156,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.649,
"draw": 0.2192,
"home": 0.1319
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.472,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.472,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Barcelona",
"home": "Sevilla FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.217068,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5156,
"implied_prob": 0.2776,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.421,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 4,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.649,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570400,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T18:59:42.382040+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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LaLiga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Alavés | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Elche CF | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 14.9 | 2.7 | +12.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | +3.9 | 15 |
| 3 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | +3.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alavés | 7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | +2.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 7 | 7.6 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 7 | Espanyol | 7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 16 |
| 9 | Levante | 6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 13 |
| 11 | Málaga | 7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 16 |
| 16 | Elche CF | 7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 17 | Getafe | 7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 3.7 | 6.9 | -3.2 | 4 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 20 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 2.4 | 6.5 | -4.1 | 7 |
