The model missed the final outcome (Getafe win 1–0).
The model had projected Málaga at 40.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Málaga Getafe ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 27.5% | 48.3% | -20.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.4% | 30.6% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Málaga | 40.1% | 21.0% | +19.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Getafe's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Getafe win 1–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.19, 1 goals)
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Málaga by 20.8 percentage points (60.9% vs model 40.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Getafe 27.5% · Draw 32.3% · Málaga 40.1%
- xG · Getafe 0.97 — Málaga 1.22
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Getafe 2.01 · Draw 3.17 · Málaga 4.62
- Implied 1X2 · Getafe 48.3% · Draw 30.6% · Málaga 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Getafe 2.01 · Draw 3.17 · Málaga 4.62
- Implied 1X2 · Getafe 48.3% · Draw 30.6% · Málaga 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Getafe win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
53/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
15/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Getafe win · Getafe 1–0 Málaga
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"alert_team": "M\u00e1laga",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 20.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -20.79,
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"market_prob_pct": 21.0,
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"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8541,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates M\u00e1laga at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies M\u00e1laga as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "M\u00e1laga",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side M\u00e1laga \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570398 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.62,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21645021645021645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 20.79,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 20.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.22,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.97 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"steam_team": "M\u00e1laga",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8541,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates M\u00e1laga at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies M\u00e1laga as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "M\u00e1laga",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side M\u00e1laga \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570398 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.62,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21645021645021645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Getafe 0.97 xG vs M\u00e1laga 1.22 \u2192 M\u00e1laga 40.1%",
"Market: Getafe ~21.0% implied",
"Market Drift: M\u00e1laga odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours M\u00e1laga, but the market has moved away from M\u00e1laga.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -20.79,
"fair_prob": 27.54,
"label": "Getafe",
"market_prob": 48.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.71,
"fair_prob": 32.35,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.08,
"fair_prob": 40.11,
"label": "M\u00e1laga",
"market_prob": 21.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob": 37.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.2,
"fair_prob": 62.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.72,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.72,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -20.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Getafe",
"market_prob_pct": 48.33,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "M\u00e1laga"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Getafe\u0027s win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 20.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "M\u00e1laga",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Getafe 0.97 xG vs M\u00e1laga 1.22 \u2192 M\u00e1laga 40.1%",
"Market: Getafe ~21.0% implied",
"Market Drift: M\u00e1laga odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours M\u00e1laga, but the market has moved away from M\u00e1laga.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -20.79,
"hero_label": "Getafe",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "M\u00e1laga odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 20.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 40.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
"max_prob_pct": 40.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Getafe",
"largest_gap_pp": -20.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Getafe higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 20.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -20.79,
"edge_pp": -20.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Getafe",
"market_prob_pct": 48.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.71,
"edge_pp": 1.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 19.08,
"edge_pp": 19.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "M\u00e1laga",
"market_prob_pct": 21.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Getafe (21.0%).",
"M\u00e1laga odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.8%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 M\u00e1laga, Market \u2192 Getafe, while M\u00e1laga odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 149h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on M\u00e1laga (10.8%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.62",
"4.16",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.44 \u2192 3.48 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 149h 2m",
"pick_team": "M\u00e1laga",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
4.62,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on M\u00e1laga",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "M\u00e1laga",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from M\u00e1laga while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "M\u00e1laga",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "M\u00e1laga",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "M\u00e1laga",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 20.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "malaga",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "M\u00e1laga",
"away_team_id": 535,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/535.webp",
"away_team_name": "M\u00e1laga",
"away_team_public_id": "5M2r3y26sZK0x4",
"away_team_slug": "malaga",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570398,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Getafe",
"home_team_id": 546,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/546.webp",
"home_team_name": "Getafe",
"home_team_public_id": "0zGRTb63UpwLKh",
"home_team_slug": "getafe",
"ht.home_team_slug": "getafe",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "LaLiga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "LaLiga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:00:00",
"public_id": "2vpNX2NK7q4ziQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Getafe",
"venue_name": "Coliseum Alfonso P\u00e9rez"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1427,
"best_odd": 4.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2103,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4833
},
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"p_final": 0.2375
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2924,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.3064,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2103,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4833
},
"model_prob": 0.3234,
"p_final": 0.3114
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3096,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0644,
"ev": -0.158,
"implied_prob": 0.4833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2103,
"draw": 0.3064,
"home": 0.4833
},
"model_prob": 0.2753,
"p_final": 0.4189
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.62,
"edge": 0.1849,
"ev": 0.8541,
"implied_prob": 0.2165,
"model_prob": 0.4013
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": 0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3234
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.2222,
"ev": -0.4467,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.2753
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.37,
"alpha_yes": 0.3363,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0272,
"edge_yes": 0.0272,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0898,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0933,
"ev_yes": 0.0237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0589,
"implied_no": 0.5722,
"implied_yes": 0.4278,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.37,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5614
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3363,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4377
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5614,
"p_final_yes": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2741,
"alpha_under": 0.3769,
"best_over_odd": 2.75,
"best_under_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.585,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.46,
"edge_over": 0.012,
"edge_under": -0.012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0312,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.057,
"ev_under": -0.05,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0747,
"implied_over": 0.363,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3609,
"implied_under": 0.637,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6391,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2741,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.3609,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.3648
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3769,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.6391,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.6338
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3648,
"p_final_under": 0.6338,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8541,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0974,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 20.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8541,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates M\u00e1laga at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies M\u00e1laga as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "M\u00e1laga",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side M\u00e1laga \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.62 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +85% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570398 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.62 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from M\u00e1laga, but the model still strongly favours M\u00e1laga.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +85% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.62,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21645021645021645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.455,
"draw_prob": 0.3234,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4013,
"over_prob": 0.375,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"under_prob": 0.625,
"xg_diff": 0.25
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.62,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.0974,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "M\u00e1laga"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3363,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.429,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.37,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5614
},
"p_final": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0589,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3363,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4377
}
},
"edge": 0.0272,
"ev": 0.0237,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2741,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0039,
"market_prob": 0.3609,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2741,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.3609,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.3648
},
"p_final": 0.3648,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.057,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3769,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.6391,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.6338
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": 0.0312,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.363,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570398,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0974,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4013,
"draw": 0.3234,
"home": 0.2753
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "M\u00e1laga",
"home": "Getafe"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.039087,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "M\u00e1laga",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0974,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.62,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2103,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21645021645021645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.854,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+85.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570398,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:01:11.481712+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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LaLiga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche CF | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Alavés | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Elche CF | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 14.9 | 2.7 | +12.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid CF | 7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | +3.9 | 15 |
| 3 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | +3.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alavés | 7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | +2.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 7 | 7.6 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 7 | Espanyol | 7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 16 |
| 9 | Levante | 6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 13 |
| 11 | Málaga | 7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 16 |
| 16 | Elche CF | 7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 17 | Getafe | 7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 3.7 | 6.9 | -3.2 | 4 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 20 | RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 2.4 | 6.5 | -4.1 | 7 |
