The model missed the final outcome (Wisła Płock II win 2–1).
The model had projected Jagiellonia II at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Jagiellonia II Wisła Płock II ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock II | 34.7% | 41.4% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Jagiellonia II | 35.6% | 35.2% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Wisła Płock II's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Wisła Płock II win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Wisła Płock II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jagiellonia II by 6.7 percentage points (42.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Jagiellonia II 35.6%
- xG · Wisła Płock II 1.29 — Jagiellonia II 1.31
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wisła Płock II 2.15 · Draw 3.79 · Jagiellonia II 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 41.4% · Draw 23.5% · Jagiellonia II 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wisła Płock II 2.15 · Draw 3.79 · Jagiellonia II 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Wisła Płock II 41.4% · Draw 23.5% · Jagiellonia II 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Wisła Płock II win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Wisła Płock II win · Wisła Płock II 2–1 Jagiellonia II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"sort_key": 1788.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"alert_team": "Jagiellonia II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
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"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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}
],
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jagiellonia II at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jagiellonia II as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jagiellonia II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.67,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"steam_team": "Jagiellonia II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jagiellonia II at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jagiellonia II as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jagiellonia II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II 1.29 xG vs Jagiellonia II 1.31 \u2192 Jagiellonia II 35.6%",
"Market: Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II ~35.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Jagiellonia II \u2193 -3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Jagiellonia II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"market_prob": 41.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Jagiellonia II",
"market_prob": 35.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.97,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.97,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.59,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.59,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"market_prob_pct": 41.37,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Jagiellonia II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II\u0027s win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Jagiellonia II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Jagiellonia II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II 1.29 xG vs Jagiellonia II 1.31 \u2192 Jagiellonia II 35.6%",
"Market: Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II ~35.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Jagiellonia II \u2193 -3.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Jagiellonia II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Jagiellonia II odds shortened \u2193 -3.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Jagiellonia II, with odds shortening by 3.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Jagiellonia II \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Jagiellonia II, with odds shortening by 3.7%.",
"Buying interest on Jagiellonia II \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Jagiellonia II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.67,
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"market_prob_pct": 41.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.18,
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.48,
"edge_pp": 0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jagiellonia II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Jagiellonia II \u2014 odds shortened by 3.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II (35.2%).",
"Jagiellonia II has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.7%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jagiellonia II, Market \u2192 Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II, Recent sharp money \u2192 Jagiellonia II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Jagiellonia II (3.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.62",
"2.53"
],
"display": "2.76 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 45m",
"pick_team": "Jagiellonia II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.53,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Jagiellonia II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Jagiellonia II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Jagiellonia II",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Jagiellonia II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jagiellonia-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jagiellonia II",
"away_team_id": 16236,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16236.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jagiellonia II",
"away_team_public_id": "400oyFuX36VMUC",
"away_team_slug": "jagiellonia-ii",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1569111,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"home_team_id": 23046,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23046.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II",
"home_team_public_id": "61zquZemUKoKWV",
"home_team_slug": "wisa-pock-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wisa-pock-ii",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III Liga - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 780,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "4SPrtfKVV3K4DA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3NQKGNKBw5TyXX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Plock",
"venue_name": "Orlen Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4471,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.4137
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3535
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2721,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.4137
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.1684,
"implied_prob": 0.4137,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3516,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.4137
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3868
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": -0.0393,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": 0.1248,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.1178,
"ev": -0.2533,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1422,
"alpha_yes": 0.1956,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1359,
"edge_yes": -0.1359,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0317,
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1255,
"implied_no": 0.3191,
"implied_yes": 0.6809,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.3152,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3351
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6575
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3351,
"p_final_yes": 0.6575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.178,
"alpha_under": 0.1295,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.71,
"edge_over": -0.1797,
"edge_under": 0.1797,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.148,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0377,
"implied_over": 0.6617,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6691,
"implied_under": 0.3383,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3309,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.178,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6358
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1295,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": -0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3551
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6358,
"p_final_under": 0.3551,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jagiellonia II at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jagiellonia II as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jagiellonia II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Jagiellonia II).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jagiellonia II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3152,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1422,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.3152,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3351
},
"p_final": 0.3351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0317,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6848,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6575
}
},
"edge": 0.1359,
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3191,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1295,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0242,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.178,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6358
},
"p_final": 0.3551,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0377,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1295,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": -0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3551
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1797,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3383,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569111,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3191,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4105,
"implied_prob": 0.3191,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jagiellonia II",
"home": "Wis\u0142a P\u0142ock II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3383,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1056,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3516,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0996,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569111,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T13:59:16.330700+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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III Liga - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Widzew Łódź II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Troszyn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Weszlo | 9 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Widzew Łódź II | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki | 10 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 3 |
