AI correctly predicted the Stargard Szczeciński win.
The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Stargard Szczeciński Stargard Szczeciński ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stargard Szczeciński | 38.5% | 45.9% | -7.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Kalisz | 31.9% | 28.3% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Stargard Szczeciński's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Stargard Szczeciński win 5–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stargard Szczeciński. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stargard Szczeciński higher (45.9% vs model 38.5%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stargard Szczeciński win 5–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stargard Szczeciński 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Kalisz 31.9%
- xG · Stargard Szczeciński 1.37 — Kalisz 1.23
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stargard Szczeciński 1.93 · Draw 3.44 · Kalisz 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Stargard Szczeciński 45.9% · Draw 25.8% · Kalisz 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stargard Szczeciński 1.93 · Draw 3.44 · Kalisz 3.13
- Implied 1X2 · Stargard Szczeciński 45.9% · Draw 25.8% · Kalisz 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stargard Szczeciński win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Stargard Szczeciński win · Stargard Szczeciński 5–0 Kalisz
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"why": [
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{
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{
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2277,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 1.37 xG vs Kalisz 1.23 \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 38.5%",
"Market: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski ~45.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob": 45.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.81,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.62,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Kalisz",
"market_prob": 28.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.99,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.88,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.88,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob_pct": 45.92,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski\u0027s win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 1.37 xG vs Kalisz 1.23 \u2192 Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski 38.5%",
"Market: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski ~45.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.43,
"hero_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.43,
"edge_pp": -7.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"market_prob_pct": 45.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.81,
"edge_pp": 3.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.62,
"edge_pp": 3.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kalisz",
"market_prob_pct": 28.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski (45.9%).",
"Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/6",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"steam_score": 4,
"steam_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kalisz",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kalisz",
"away_team_id": 12801,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12801.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kalisz",
"away_team_public_id": "00tLOzPTqPftZ7",
"away_team_slug": "kalisz",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568811,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"home_team_id": 6959,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6959.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"home_team_public_id": "3zMXcrcg8zWwRW",
"home_team_slug": "stargard-szczecinski",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stargard-szczecinski",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III Liga - Grupo 2",
"league_id": 781,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Grupo 2",
"league_public_id": "3zSCpGHchE7TXd",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 12:00:00",
"public_id": "1OIYs7sYxw01NV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.2832,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2832,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.4592
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2935
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2828,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0765,
"implied_prob": 0.2576,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2832,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.4592
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2684
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5329,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0397,
"ev": -0.1904,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2832,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.4592
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4195
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": 0.0178,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1335,
"ev": -0.2577,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1584,
"alpha_yes": 0.2178,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0788,
"edge_yes": -0.0788,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1172,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0517,
"ev_yes": -0.2003,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1083,
"implied_no": 0.3772,
"implied_yes": 0.6228,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3886
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.624,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6066
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3886,
"p_final_yes": 0.6066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.207,
"alpha_under": 0.1506,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.37,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": -0.1099,
"edge_under": 0.1099,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_under": 0.2277,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0471,
"implied_over": 0.5919,
"implied_over_mf": 0.591,
"implied_under": 0.4081,
"implied_under_mf": 0.409,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5685
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4254
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5685,
"p_final_under": 0.4254,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2277,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2277,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2277,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0397,
"ev": -0.1904,
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.376,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3886
},
"p_final": 0.3886,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.624,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6066
}
},
"edge": 0.0788,
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0164,
"market_prob": 0.409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5685
},
"p_final": 0.4254,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0471,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4254
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1099,
"ev": 0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.4081,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568811,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2277,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kalisz",
"home": "Stargard Szczeci\u0144ski"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.082564,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.4081,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1904,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4592,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2577,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568811,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T12:01:09.817646+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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III Liga - Grupo 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzino | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Polonia Środa | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Kalisz | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Stargard Szczeciński | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Flota Świnoujście | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Grom Nowy Staw | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Noteć Czarnków | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Gedania Gdańsk | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Unia Swarzędz | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Kotwica Kórnik | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Elana Toruń | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzino | 10 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 25 |
| 2 | Polonia Środa | 10 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 | Grom Nowy Staw | 10 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Gedania Gdańsk | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 10 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Kluczevia Stargard | 10 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 19 |
| 7 | Kotwica Kórnik | 10 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 8 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Kalisz | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 10 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Wda Świecie | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 12 | Noteć Czarnków | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Flota Świnoujście | 10 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Unia Swarzędz | 10 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Elana Toruń | 10 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 10 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Victoria Września | 10 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 7 |
