AI correctly predicted the Star Starachowice win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Star Starachowice Star Starachowice ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Starachowice | 40.4% | 33.7% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.4% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 30.1% | 40.9% | -10.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Siarka Tarnobrzeg's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Star Starachowice win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Siarka Tarnobrzeg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Star Starachowice higher (51.1% vs model 40.4%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Star Starachowice win 4–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Star Starachowice 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 30.1%
- xG · Star Starachowice 1.41 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.19
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Star Starachowice 2.67 · Draw 3.54 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Star Starachowice 33.7% · Draw 25.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 40.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Star Starachowice 2.67 · Draw 3.54 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Star Starachowice 33.7% · Draw 25.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 40.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Star Starachowice win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Star Starachowice win · Star Starachowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1831a81a9c79f6db295ba98c559a4c9e8ae4f5f2f24bf4eef9e90fb4c4bb4b27",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.3014,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.32,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.47,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"home_win_prob": 0.4042,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Star Starachowice",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0678,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3369,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.1,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 40.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.67,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Star Starachowice Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.97,
"market_odds": 2.67,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 11.2,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 8.1,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 75.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.41,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Star Starachowice or Draw",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Star Starachowice or Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"prob": 59.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Star Starachowice or Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.1,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Star Starachowice"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.1,
"implied_prob": 37.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Star Starachowice Win",
"model_prob": 40.5,
"odds": 2.67
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.89,
"draw": 25.41,
"home": 33.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:01:59",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 12:33:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Star Starachowice",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.69,
"gap_pp": 6.78,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.41,
"gap_pp": 3.99,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.89,
"gap_pp": -10.78,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.85,
"gap_pp": -7.65,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.15,
"gap_pp": 7.65,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.54,
"early": 3.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.41,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.89,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.85,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.1,
"early": 2.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.15,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.41,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0619,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0826,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10224.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0085,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4066,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4151
},
"p_final": 0.4151,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0328,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5934,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0534,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1599,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0534,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10048.06,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0271,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0271,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Star Starachowice",
"sort_key": 1793.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Star Starachowice",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.75,
"hero_label": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"market_team": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Star Starachowice",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Star Starachowice at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Star Starachowice as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Star Starachowice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.75,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Star Starachowice",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Star Starachowice at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Star Starachowice as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Star Starachowice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Star Starachowice 1.41 xG vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.19 \u2192 Star Starachowice 40.4%",
"Market: Siarka Tarnobrzeg ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Star Starachowice odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Star Starachowice, but the market has moved away from Star Starachowice.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.73,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Star Starachowice",
"market_prob": 33.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"market_prob": 40.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.17,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.17,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"market_prob_pct": 40.89,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Star Starachowice"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Siarka Tarnobrzeg\u0027s win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Star Starachowice",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Star Starachowice 1.41 xG vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.19 \u2192 Star Starachowice 40.4%",
"Market: Siarka Tarnobrzeg ~33.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Star Starachowice odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Star Starachowice, but the market has moved away from Star Starachowice.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.75,
"hero_label": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Star Starachowice odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Star Starachowice has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Siarka Tarnobrzeg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Star Starachowice \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Siarka Tarnobrzeg than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Star Starachowice has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Star Starachowice \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Siarka Tarnobrzeg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Star Starachowice has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Star Starachowice."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Siarka Tarnobrzeg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.73,
"edge_pp": 6.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Star Starachowice",
"market_prob_pct": 33.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.03,
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.75,
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"market_prob_pct": 40.89,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Star Starachowice \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Siarka Tarnobrzeg (33.7%).",
"However, Star Starachowice has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.4%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Star Starachowice, Market \u2192 Siarka Tarnobrzeg, while Star Starachowice odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Star Starachowice (11.4%, 5/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.67",
"2.44",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.64 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 27m",
"pick_team": "Star Starachowice",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.64"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.67,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/7 sportsbooks on Star Starachowice",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Star Starachowice",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Star Starachowice while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Star Starachowice",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Star Starachowice",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Star Starachowice",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "siarka-tarnobrzeg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"away_team_id": 6955,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6955.webp",
"away_team_name": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"away_team_public_id": "2U5vI99qmLz5mR",
"away_team_slug": "siarka-tarnobrzeg",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1568186,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Star Starachowice",
"home_team_id": 21660,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21660.webp",
"home_team_name": "Star Starachowice",
"home_team_public_id": "4gu23QRXnRHDFc",
"home_team_slug": "star-starachowice",
"ht.home_team_slug": "star-starachowice",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III Liga - Grupo 4",
"league_id": 783,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/783.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Grupo 4",
"league_public_id": "0Webjq2gkya99L",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1Z4WX6xn4LYBcR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3773,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0407,
"ev": -0.1898,
"implied_prob": 0.4089,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2654
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4042,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": -0.0271,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4089,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3369
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3644
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.1534,
"ev": -0.3375,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": 0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1661,
"alpha_yes": 0.2284,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0517,
"edge_yes": -0.0517,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0534,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0639,
"ev_yes": -0.1599,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"implied_no": 0.4063,
"implied_yes": 0.5937,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4151
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5934,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4151,
"p_final_yes": 0.5817,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2213,
"alpha_under": 0.2012,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.09,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.066,
"edge_under": 0.066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.548,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5526,
"implied_under": 0.452,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5369,
"p_final_under": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Star Starachowice at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Star Starachowice as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Star Starachowice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Star Starachowice, but the model still strongly favours Star Starachowice.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": -0.0271,
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Star Starachowice"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4066,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.255,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4151
},
"p_final": 0.4151,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2284,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5934,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5817
}
},
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4616,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0536,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2012,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4616
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.066,
"ev": 0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.452,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1568186,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0826,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Siarka Tarnobrzeg",
"home": "Star Starachowice"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.029951,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.452,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3369,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37453183520599254,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0808,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1568186,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:02:01.693481+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Star Starachowice & Siarka Tarnobrzeg!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
III Liga - Grupo 4 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Naprzód | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Hetman Zamość | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Kraków II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarosław | 9 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Naprzód | 10 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 17 |
| 3 | Korona Kielce II | 10 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Czarni Połaniec | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Chełmianka Chełm | 10 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 26 |
| 6 | Hetman Zamość | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 10 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 | KSZO 1929 | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 19 |
| 9 | Wisłoka Dębica | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 10 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 10 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Star Starachowice | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Sokół Kolb. | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Kraków II | 10 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 10 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
