The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected FC Krasnodar at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FC Krasnodar Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 27.5% | 20.6% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 25.1% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| FC Krasnodar | 43.4% | 54.3% | -11.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates FC Krasnodar's win probability at 54.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about FC Krasnodar than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned FC Krasnodar; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Krasnodar by 11.0 percentage points (54.4% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Orenburg 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · FC Krasnodar 43.3%
- xG · FC Orenburg 1.13 — FC Krasnodar 1.47
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Orenburg 4.69 · Draw 3.86 · FC Krasnodar 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · FC Orenburg 20.6% · Draw 25.1% · FC Krasnodar 54.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Orenburg 4.69 · Draw 3.86 · FC Krasnodar 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · FC Orenburg 20.6% · Draw 25.1% · FC Krasnodar 54.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FC Orenburg 0–0 FC Krasnodar
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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"ev": -0.1311,
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{
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}
},
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"ev_no_display": {
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "FC Orenburg",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.98,
"hero_label": "FC Krasnodar",
"market_prob_pct": 54.3,
"market_team": "FC Krasnodar",
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_team": "FC Krasnodar",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2895,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Krasnodar at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Krasnodar as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Krasnodar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Krasnodar \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561400 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2287,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.98,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.47,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.13,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.47,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.13 \u00b7 Away xG 1.47 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "FC Orenburg",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2895,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Krasnodar at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Krasnodar as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Krasnodar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Krasnodar \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561400 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1311,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2287,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Orenburg 1.13 xG vs FC Krasnodar 1.47 \u2192 FC Krasnodar 43.4%",
"Market: FC Krasnodar ~54.3% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Orenburg odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Krasnodar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.88,
"fair_prob": 27.5,
"label": "FC Orenburg",
"market_prob": 20.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"fair_prob": 29.15,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob": 43.35,
"label": "FC Krasnodar",
"market_prob": 54.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.12,
"fair_prob": 53.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.12,
"fair_prob": 46.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FC Krasnodar",
"market_prob_pct": 54.33,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Orenburg"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Krasnodar\u0027s win probability at 54.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Krasnodar",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.9,
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "FC Krasnodar \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Orenburg 1.13 xG vs FC Krasnodar 1.47 \u2192 FC Krasnodar 43.4%",
"Market: FC Krasnodar ~54.3% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Orenburg odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Krasnodar with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.98,
"hero_label": "FC Krasnodar",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FC Orenburg odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC Orenburg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Krasnodar than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FC Krasnodar than the current fair estimate.",
"However, FC Orenburg has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/4 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FC Krasnodar more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FC Orenburg has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/4), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.2 pp (at 43.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Krasnodar",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Krasnodar higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.88,
"edge_pp": 6.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Orenburg",
"market_prob_pct": 20.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.1,
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.98,
"edge_pp": -10.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Krasnodar",
"market_prob_pct": 54.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Krasnodar (54.3%).",
"FC Orenburg odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 1/4) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FC Krasnodar \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.69,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 24m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on FC Orenburg (8.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.69",
"4.51",
"4.33"
],
"display": "5.58 \u2192 3.97 \u2192 4.69",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 24m",
"pick_team": "FC Orenburg",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.58"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.69"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
4.69
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.69"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "FC Orenburg",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.69,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Orenburg",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"current_odds": 4.69,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "FC Orenburg",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "FC Orenburg",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-krasnodar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Krasnodar",
"away_team_id": 621,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/621.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Krasnodar",
"away_team_public_id": "0xGd0qRJwNXCAT",
"away_team_slug": "fc-krasnodar",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1561400,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Orenburg",
"home_team_id": 1080,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1080.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Orenburg",
"home_team_public_id": "3CcFmPgQKrqV7E",
"home_team_slug": "fc-orenburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-orenburg",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Rusia",
"league_id": 235,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/235.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Rusia",
"league_public_id": "5sM4FiptwY0zJp",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 13:15:00",
"public_id": "1vpSEYIKFO6xe9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Orenburg",
"venue_name": "Gazovik Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.501,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0551,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.5433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5433,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.2062
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"p_final": 0.4882
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5433,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.2062
},
"model_prob": 0.2918,
"p_final": 0.2621
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0249,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5433,
"draw": 0.2505,
"home": 0.2062
},
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.2185
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.1285,
"ev": -0.2288,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.4333
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.86,
"edge": 0.0327,
"ev": 0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"model_prob": 0.2918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.69,
"edge": 0.0617,
"ev": 0.2895,
"implied_prob": 0.2132,
"model_prob": 0.275
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1572,
"alpha_yes": 0.173,
"best_no_odd": 2.02,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0012,
"edge_yes": -0.0012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0647,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0713,
"ev_yes": -0.071,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.072,
"implied_no": 0.4618,
"implied_yes": 0.5382,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1572,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0713,
"implied_prob": 0.4618,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"p_final": 0.462
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.173,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.5382,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.538
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.462,
"p_final_yes": 0.538,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2105,
"alpha_under": 0.2105,
"best_over_odd": 1.87,
"best_under_odd": 2.09,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.045,
"edge_over": -0.0441,
"edge_under": 0.0441,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0987,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0102,
"implied_over": 0.5261,
"implied_over_mf": 0.525,
"implied_under": 0.4739,
"implied_under_mf": 0.475,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.516
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0102,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.484
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.516,
"p_final_under": 0.484,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2895,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2895,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Krasnodar at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Krasnodar as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Krasnodar",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side FC Krasnodar \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561400 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Krasnodar).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4333,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FC Orenburg",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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},
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0713,
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0091,
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"over": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0102,
"under": {
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}
},
"match_id": 1561400,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0826,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.275
},
"reason_codes": [
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"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "FC Orenburg"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0826,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.2287,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561400,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T13:14:06.605381+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Rusia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscú | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rubin Kazán | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Akhmat Grozni | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Akron | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscú | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Makhachkala | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 | Dynamo | 9 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Baltika | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozni | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazán | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Akron | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
