The model missed the final outcome (Malženice win 1–2).
The model had projected Lokomotíva Zvolen at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Lokomotíva Zvolen Malženice ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotíva Zvolen | 35.6% | 47.4% | -11.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Malženice | 34.7% | 27.4% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Lokomotíva Zvolen's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Malženice win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomotíva Zvolen than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lokomotíva Zvolen by 11.7 percentage points (47.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lokomotíva Zvolen 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Malženice 34.7%
- xG · Lokomotíva Zvolen 1.31 — Malženice 1.29
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotíva Zvolen 1.93 · Draw 3.63 · Malženice 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotíva Zvolen 47.4% · Draw 25.2% · Malženice 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lokomotíva Zvolen 1.93 · Draw 3.63 · Malženice 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · Lokomotíva Zvolen 47.4% · Draw 25.2% · Malženice 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Malženice win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
41/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Malženice win · Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–2 Malženice
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
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},
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"execution_confidence": 50,
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"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1981,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1707,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1707,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1981,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen 1.31 xG vs Mal\u017eenice 1.29 \u2192 Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen 35.6%",
"Market: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen ~47.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"market_prob": 47.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.47,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.25,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Mal\u017eenice",
"market_prob": 27.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.44,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"market_prob_pct": 47.37,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen\u0027s win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.8,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen 1.31 xG vs Mal\u017eenice 1.29 \u2192 Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen 35.6%",
"Market: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen ~47.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.73,
"hero_label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen (pricing gap 11.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.73,
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"market_prob_pct": 47.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.47,
"edge_pp": 4.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.25,
"edge_pp": 7.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mal\u017eenice",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen (47.4%).",
"Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "malzenice",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mal\u017eenice",
"away_team_id": 14058,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14058.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mal\u017eenice",
"away_team_public_id": "099VE77acTbyh5",
"away_team_slug": "malzenice",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1561137,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"home_team_id": 10552,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10552.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"home_team_public_id": "1LzAsJS4N69Tej",
"home_team_slug": "lokomotiva-zvolen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lokomotiva-zvolen",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "2. liga de Eslovaquia",
"league_id": 506,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/506.webp",
"league_name": "2. liga de Eslovaquia",
"league_public_id": "1xj18gall4XqEu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "37wGUUbYzkoYdD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zvolen",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2673,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0211,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.2518,
"home": 0.4737
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.294
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2798,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.2518,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.2518,
"home": 0.4737
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2644
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4941,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0582,
"ev": -0.1981,
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2745,
"draw": 0.2518,
"home": 0.4737
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4155
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": 0.1564,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1622,
"ev": -0.3131,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2106,
"alpha_yes": 0.2317,
"best_no_odd": 2.29,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0399,
"edge_yes": -0.0399,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.042,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0752,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1102,
"implied_no": 0.4151,
"implied_yes": 0.5849,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5778
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4213,
"p_final_yes": 0.5778,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2149,
"alpha_under": 0.1954,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.26,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.605,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.125,
"edge_over": -0.0844,
"edge_under": 0.0844,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"ev_under": 0.1707,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0492,
"implied_over": 0.5664,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5697,
"implied_under": 0.4336,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4303,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2149,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.5697,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5509
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4474
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5509,
"p_final_under": 0.4474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1707,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1707,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1707,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1707,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1707,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +17.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1981,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0582,
"ev": -0.1981,
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.195,
"edge": 0.009,
"market_prob": 0.4123,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2106,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.009,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4213
},
"p_final": 0.4213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0752,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2317,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5778
}
},
"edge": 0.0399,
"ev": 0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.4303,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2149,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.5697,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5509
},
"p_final": 0.4474,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0492,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 2.125,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4474
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0844,
"ev": 0.1707,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561137,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1707,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mal\u017eenice",
"home": "Lokomot\u00edva Zvolen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.061896,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1707,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1981,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4737,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3131,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561137,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:29:45.340319+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. liga de Eslovaquia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Petržalka | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FK Pohronie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Galanta | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Malženice | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Humenné | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Petržalka | 10 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 | FK Pohronie | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Galanta | 10 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Malženice | 10 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Žilina II | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Humenné | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
