The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Liptovský Mikuláš at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Liptovský Mikuláš Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liptovský Mikuláš | 38.0% | 45.6% | -7.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.8% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Zlaté Moravce | 32.4% | 29.6% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Liptovský Mikuláš's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Liptovský Mikuláš. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Liptovský Mikuláš; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Liptovský Mikuláš by 7.6 percentage points (45.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Zlaté Moravce 32.4%
- xG · Liptovský Mikuláš 1.36 — Zlaté Moravce 1.24
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Liptovský Mikuláš 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Zlaté Moravce 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 45.6% · Draw 24.8% · Zlaté Moravce 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Liptovský Mikuláš 2.01 · Draw 3.70 · Zlaté Moravce 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Liptovský Mikuláš 45.6% · Draw 24.8% · Zlaté Moravce 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Liptovský Mikuláš 0–0 Zlaté Moravce
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
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"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.57,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 1.36 xG vs Zlat\u00e9 Moravce 1.24 \u2192 Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 38.0%",
"Market: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 ~45.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob": 45.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"market_prob": 29.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.09,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.09,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 45.58,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161\u0027s win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.6,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 1.36 xG vs Zlat\u00e9 Moravce 1.24 \u2192 Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 38.0%",
"Market: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 ~45.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.57,
"hero_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.57,
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"market_prob_pct": 45.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.83,
"edge_pp": 4.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.74,
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"market_prob_pct": 29.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 (45.6%).",
"Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zlate-moravce",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"away_team_id": 3553,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3553.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"away_team_public_id": "4Jiy0IcS6eTDSr",
"away_team_slug": "zlate-moravce",
"country_code": "SK",
"country_display_name": "Slovakia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sk.svg",
"country_id": 140,
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"fixture_id": 1561133,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovakia",
"home_team_display_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"home_team_id": 10536,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10536.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"home_team_public_id": "5gDSp1ByoQBaGy",
"home_team_slug": "liptovsky-mikulas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "liptovsky-mikulas",
"league_country": "Slovakia",
"league_country_display": "Slovakia",
"league_display_name": "2. liga de Eslovaquia",
"league_id": 506,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/506.webp",
"league_name": "2. liga de Eslovaquia",
"league_public_id": "1xj18gall4XqEu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0tkxFh38Y6lW10",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Liptovsky Mikulas",
"venue_name": "Mestsky futbalovy stadion Milana Janeka"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4558
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
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},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.2476,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4558
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2611
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.399,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1443,
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2476,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4257
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": 0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.095,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.1172,
"ev": -0.2355,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1604,
"alpha_yes": 0.2206,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0709,
"edge_yes": -0.0709,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0598,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1112,
"implied_no": 0.3851,
"implied_yes": 0.6149,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1604,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3951
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6006
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3951,
"p_final_yes": 0.6006,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2046,
"alpha_under": 0.1488,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1112,
"edge_under": 0.1112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_over": 0.5932,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5976,
"implied_under": 0.4068,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.574,
"p_final_under": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
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"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
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"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -10,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
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},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.1443,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0116,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.3951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0598,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1112,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0709,
"ev": 0.099,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4024,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"p_final": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1112,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561133,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zlat\u00e9 Moravce",
"home": "Liptovsk\u00fd Mikul\u00e1\u0161"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1443,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4558,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2356,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561133,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:00:36.602380+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. liga de Eslovaquia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Petržalka | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FK Pohronie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Galanta | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Malženice | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Humenné | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Petržalka | 10 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 | FK Pohronie | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Galanta | 10 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Malženice | 10 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Žilina II | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Humenné | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
