The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Ferencvárosi TC at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ferencvárosi TC Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyíregyháza | 27.9% | 23.9% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.2% | 22.8% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Ferencvárosi TC | 42.9% | 53.4% | -10.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ferencvárosi TC's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Ferencvárosi TC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Ferencvárosi TC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ferencvárosi TC by 10.5 percentage points (53.4% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nyíregyháza 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Ferencvárosi TC 42.9%
- xG · Nyíregyháza 1.14 — Ferencvárosi TC 1.46
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nyíregyháza 3.98 · Draw 4.17 · Ferencvárosi TC 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · Nyíregyháza 23.9% · Draw 22.8% · Ferencvárosi TC 53.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nyíregyháza 3.98 · Draw 4.17 · Ferencvárosi TC 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · Nyíregyháza 23.9% · Draw 22.8% · Ferencvárosi TC 53.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
47/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Nyíregyháza 1–1 Ferencvárosi TC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1445,
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},
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},
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "market_disagree",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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},
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"key": "agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
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"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2367,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.14,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.14 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2182,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2367,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za 1.14 xG vs Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC 1.46 \u2192 Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC 42.9%",
"Market: Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC ~53.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za",
"market_prob": 23.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.42,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"market_prob": 53.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.19,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.19,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"market_prob_pct": 53.36,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC\u0027s win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.5,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za 1.14 xG vs Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC 1.46 \u2192 Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC 42.9%",
"Market: Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC ~53.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.5,
"hero_label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.07,
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za",
"market_prob_pct": 23.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.42,
"edge_pp": 6.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.5,
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"market_prob_pct": 53.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC (53.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.4%, 3/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.17 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.90) \u2014 net 5.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.17",
"3.94",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.17 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 1m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.17"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
4.17,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ferencvarosi-tc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"away_team_id": 651,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/651.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"away_team_public_id": "472LfGuRuxNUrj",
"away_team_slug": "ferencvarosi-tc",
"country_code": "HU",
"country_display_name": "Hungary",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_id": 71,
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1560246,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za",
"home_team_id": 2403,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2403.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za",
"home_team_public_id": "5mAUiGsORj7Mku",
"home_team_slug": "nyiregyhaza",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nyiregyhaza",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_country_display": "Hungary",
"league_display_name": "Nemzeti Bajnoks\u00e1g I",
"league_id": 271,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/271.webp",
"league_name": "Nemzeti Bajnoks\u00e1g I",
"league_public_id": "4nrQdbq97ohWkZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 17:30:00",
"public_id": "1mKEdjAVZXKBxu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za",
"venue_name": "V\u00e1rosi Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5057,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5336,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.2386
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.4806
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1807,
"best_odd": 4.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0017,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5336,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.2386
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2394
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0049,
"implied_prob": 0.2386,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5336,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.2386
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.25
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.133,
"ev": -0.2367,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.4288
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.17,
"edge": 0.0523,
"ev": 0.2182,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2791
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1654,
"alpha_yes": 0.2274,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0519,
"edge_yes": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0626,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0621,
"ev_yes": -0.1392,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"implied_no": 0.4101,
"implied_yes": 0.5899,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1654,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4168
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2274,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5798
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4168,
"p_final_yes": 0.5798,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2078,
"alpha_under": 0.1511,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.1077,
"edge_under": 0.1077,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1102,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0389,
"implied_over": 0.5897,
"implied_over_mf": 0.589,
"implied_under": 0.4103,
"implied_under_mf": 0.411,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5668
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4272
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5668,
"p_final_under": 0.4272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2182,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2182,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2367,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0089,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
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"p_final": 0.4168
},
"p_final": 0.4168,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0621,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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}
},
"edge": 0.0519,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4272,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0389,
"under": {
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"ev": -0.0389,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1077,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1560246,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.2791
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ferencv\u00e1rosi TC",
"home": "Ny\u00edregyh\u00e1za"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4103,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1445,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2367,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1560246,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:29:12.176553+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nemzeti Bajnokság I — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Győri ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskás Akadémia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Újpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyíregyháza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Újpest | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Győri ETO FC | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Paks | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Puskás Akadémia | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ferencvárosi TC | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Budapest Honvéd | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Kisvárda FC | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyíregyháza | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
