AI correctly predicted the RAAL La Louvière W win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 RAAL La Louvière W RAAL La Louvière W ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière W | 40.9% | 50.7% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.7% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Gent Femenino | 29.7% | 26.6% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates RAAL La Louvière W's win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (RAAL La Louvière W win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louvière W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced RAAL La Louvière W higher (50.7% vs model 40.9%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (RAAL La Louvière W win 3–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · RAAL La Louvière W 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Gent Femenino 29.6%
- xG · RAAL La Louvière W 1.42 — Gent Femenino 1.18
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · RAAL La Louvière W 1.75 · Draw 3.91 · Gent Femenino 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · RAAL La Louvière W 50.7% · Draw 22.7% · Gent Femenino 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · RAAL La Louvière W 1.75 · Draw 3.91 · Gent Femenino 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · RAAL La Louvière W 50.7% · Draw 22.7% · Gent Femenino 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result RAAL La Louvière W win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
51/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
RAAL La Louvière W win · RAAL La Louvière W 3–2 Gent Femenino
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.6%",
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
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],
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},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.77,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"steam_team": "Gent Femenino",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W 1.42 xG vs Gent Femenino 1.18 \u2192 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W 40.9%",
"Market: RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W ~50.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Gent Femenino \u2193 -5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W, but sharp money moved toward Gent Femenino.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"market_prob": 50.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Gent Femenino",
"market_prob": 26.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.57,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.57,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"market_prob_pct": 50.68,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gent Femenino"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W\u0027s win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W 1.42 xG vs Gent Femenino 1.18 \u2192 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W 40.9%",
"Market: RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W ~50.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Gent Femenino \u2193 -5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W, but sharp money moved toward Gent Femenino.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.77,
"hero_label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gent Femenino odds shortened \u2193 -5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Gent Femenino, with odds shortening by 5.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Gent Femenino, with odds shortening by 5.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gent Femenino has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 5.6%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.77,
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"market_prob_pct": 50.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.72,
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.06,
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gent Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 26.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W (50.7%).",
"Gent Femenino has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.6%, 3/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W, Market \u2192 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Gent Femenino.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"closing_odds": 1.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
"entry_odds": 1.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Gent Femenino (swing 3.69 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 5.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.46",
"3.33"
],
"display": "3.69 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 28m",
"pick_team": "Gent Femenino",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.33,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Gent Femenino",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Gent Femenino while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gent Femenino",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Gent Femenino",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Gent Femenino",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gent-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gent Femenino",
"away_team_id": 1789,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1789.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gent Femenino",
"away_team_public_id": "2YcfqAWhcvQAm4",
"away_team_slug": "gent-w",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1557293,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"home_team_id": 27853,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"home_team_public_id": "41QoRUl7PZouXc",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Superliga Femenina de B\u00e9lgica",
"league_id": 146,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/146.webp",
"league_name": "Superliga Femenina de B\u00e9lgica",
"league_public_id": "1nHsV7Dl3i2ezw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3bho7yARGbQ3cg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2864,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.275
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2698,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2449
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5125,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0498,
"ev": -0.2003,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.457
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": 0.1492,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.1619,
"ev": -0.2833,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1443,
"alpha_yes": 0.1588,
"best_no_odd": 2.27,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0557,
"edge_yes": -0.0557,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0419,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"ev_yes": -0.1777,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1417,
"implied_no": 0.4033,
"implied_yes": 0.5967,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1588,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.5967,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4114,
"p_final_yes": 0.5878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2078,
"alpha_under": 0.1511,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.1057,
"edge_under": 0.1057,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1217,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0514,
"implied_over": 0.5877,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5889,
"implied_under": 0.4123,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4111,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5667
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4273
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5667,
"p_final_under": 0.4273,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent Femenino, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0498,
"ev": -0.2003,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.4033,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"p_final": 0.4114,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1115,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1588,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.5967,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"edge": 0.0557,
"ev": 0.0419,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.4111,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5667
},
"p_final": 0.4273,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0514,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4273
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1057,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1557293,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gent Femenino",
"home": "RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1557293,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:57:54.205536+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Superliga Femenina de Bélgica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht Femenino | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Club Brujas Femenino | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | OH Leuven Femenino | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louvière W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Genk Femenino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Standard Lieja Femenino | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem Femenino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Gent Femenino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Leuven Femenino | 3 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 7 |
| 2 | Anderlecht Femenino | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Brujas Femenino | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louvière W | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gent Femenino | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Genk Femenino | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Standard Lieja Femenino | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem Femenino | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
