The model missed the final outcome (Gainare Tottori win 2–4).
The model had projected Kitakyushu at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Kitakyushu Gainare Tottori ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | 37.5% | 43.0% | -5.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Gainare Tottori | 32.9% | 31.2% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Kitakyushu's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Gainare Tottori win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Kitakyushu. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kitakyushu by 5.5 percentage points (43.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kitakyushu 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Gainare Tottori 32.9%
- xG · Kitakyushu 1.35 — Gainare Tottori 1.25
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kitakyushu 2.13 · Draw 3.55 · Gainare Tottori 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Kitakyushu 43.0% · Draw 25.8% · Gainare Tottori 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kitakyushu 2.13 · Draw 3.55 · Gainare Tottori 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Kitakyushu 43.0% · Draw 25.8% · Gainare Tottori 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gainare Tottori win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Gainare Tottori win · Kitakyushu 2–4 Gainare Tottori
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.8%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kitakyushu at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
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},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
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"no_primary_reasons": {
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"codes": [
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"label": "Reason",
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"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1317,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1998,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.48,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"steam_team": "Gainare Tottori",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0495,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kitakyushu at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kitakyushu as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kitakyushu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1317,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1998,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kitakyushu 1.35 xG vs Gainare Tottori 1.25 \u2192 Kitakyushu 37.5%",
"Market: Kitakyushu ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Gainare Tottori odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kitakyushu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.48,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Kitakyushu",
"market_prob": 43.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.68,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Gainare Tottori",
"market_prob": 31.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.47,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.47,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.21,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.21,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Kitakyushu",
"market_prob_pct": 43.02,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gainare Tottori"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kitakyushu\u0027s win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kitakyushu",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Kitakyushu \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kitakyushu 1.35 xG vs Gainare Tottori 1.25 \u2192 Kitakyushu 37.5%",
"Market: Kitakyushu ~43.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Gainare Tottori odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kitakyushu with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.48,
"hero_label": "Kitakyushu",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gainare Tottori odds lengthened \u2191 +21.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gainare Tottori has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Kitakyushu. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Gainare Tottori \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Kitakyushu. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Gainare Tottori has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Gainare Tottori \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Kitakyushu above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gainare Tottori has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Kitakyushu",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kitakyushu higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.48,
"edge_pp": -5.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kitakyushu",
"market_prob_pct": 43.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.8,
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.68,
"edge_pp": 1.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gainare Tottori",
"market_prob_pct": 31.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Gainare Tottori \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kitakyushu (43.0%).",
"However, Gainare Tottori has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.8%, 4/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Kitakyushu \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Gainare Tottori (21.8%, 4/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.94",
"2.66",
"2.38"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 15m",
"pick_team": "Gainare Tottori",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.94,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gainare Tottori odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gainare Tottori",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gainare Tottori odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Gainare Tottori",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Gainare Tottori",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Gainare Tottori",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gainare-tottori",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gainare Tottori",
"away_team_id": 4319,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4319.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gainare Tottori",
"away_team_public_id": "3kscFdwKmZCa4H",
"away_team_slug": "gainare-tottori",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1555692,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Kitakyushu",
"home_team_id": 805,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/805.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kitakyushu",
"home_team_public_id": "2RJPXqwzyQMPwL",
"home_team_slug": "kitakyushu",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kitakyushu",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J3 League",
"league_id": 100,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/100.webp",
"league_name": "J3 League",
"league_public_id": "03hQrX5ZjwbmYG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 09:00:00",
"public_id": "4d7y28b6VBuA7f",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kitakyushu",
"venue_name": "Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4385,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.3117,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2581,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3191
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2831,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.046,
"implied_prob": 0.2581,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2581,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2687
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4132,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1317,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3117,
"draw": 0.2581,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4077
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0495,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0938,
"ev": -0.1998,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2248,
"alpha_yes": 0.2472,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0021,
"edge_yes": -0.0021,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0445,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0911,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0917,
"implied_no": 0.4529,
"implied_yes": 0.5471,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4545
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2472,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5455
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4545,
"p_final_yes": 0.5455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2169,
"alpha_under": 0.2169,
"best_over_odd": 1.91,
"best_under_odd": 1.99,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.83,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.875,
"edge_over": -0.0247,
"edge_under": 0.0247,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0794,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0834,
"ev_under": 0.0308,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0641,
"implied_over": 0.5067,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5061,
"implied_under": 0.4933,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4939,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0834,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5009
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4991
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5009,
"p_final_under": 0.4991,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0495,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0308,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0308,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0495,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kitakyushu at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kitakyushu as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kitakyushu",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kitakyushu).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1317,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1998,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0308,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1317,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kitakyushu"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0002,
"market_prob": 0.4543,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4545
},
"p_final": 0.4545,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0911,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2472,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5455
}
},
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4529,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0052,
"market_prob": 0.4939,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.0834,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5009
},
"p_final": 0.4991,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0641,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4991
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0308,
"implied_prob": 0.4933,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1555692,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0308,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gainare Tottori",
"home": "Kitakyushu"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1317,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1998,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555692,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T08:59:12.259869+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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J3 League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Osaka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Nara Club | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Biwako Shiga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Kanazawa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Fukushima United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 17 | Kitakyushu | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 19 | Kochi United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 8 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Osaka | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 16 |
| 5 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fukushima United | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Sagamihara | 8 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Biwako Shiga | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 8 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 19 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 8 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 8 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 5 |
