The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Katamon win 2–4).
The model had projected Maccabi Petah Tikva at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Maccabi Petah Tikva Hapoel Katamon ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Petah Tikva | 35.2% | 38.6% | -3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Hapoel Katamon | 35.2% | 30.9% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Hapoel Katamon win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Petah Tikva; match finished Hapoel Katamon
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hapoel Katamon win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Katamon 35.2%
- xG · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.30 — Hapoel Katamon 1.30
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2.47 · Draw 3.12 · Hapoel Katamon 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 38.6% · Draw 30.6% · Hapoel Katamon 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2.47 · Draw 3.12 · Hapoel Katamon 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 38.6% · Draw 30.6% · Hapoel Katamon 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hapoel Katamon win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
78/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.09
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hapoel Katamon win · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–4 Hapoel Katamon
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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},
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"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Petah Tikva at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.6%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
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"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
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"model_lean": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0827,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1311,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.32,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"steam_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.087,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Petah Tikva at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Petah Tikva as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0827,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1311,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.30 xG vs Hapoel Katamon 1.30 \u2192 Maccabi Petah Tikva 35.2%",
"Market: Maccabi Petah Tikva ~38.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Katamon odds \u2191 +12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maccabi Petah Tikva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"market_prob": 38.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"market_prob": 30.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"market_prob_pct": 30.85,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Katamon"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Maccabi Petah Tikva \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.30 xG vs Hapoel Katamon 1.30 \u2192 Maccabi Petah Tikva 35.2%",
"Market: Maccabi Petah Tikva ~38.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hapoel Katamon odds \u2191 +12.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maccabi Petah Tikva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.32,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Hapoel Katamon odds lengthened \u2191 +12.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Katamon.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Katamon."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Hapoel Katamon (\u2191 +12.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Hapoel Katamon."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.42,
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"market_prob_pct": 38.59,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.9,
"edge_pp": -0.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.32,
"edge_pp": 4.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"market_prob_pct": 30.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Hapoel Katamon.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Maccabi Petah Tikva (38.6%).",
"Hapoel Katamon odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.9%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Maccabi Petah Tikva \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.36,
"closing_odds": 3.09,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.36,
"entry_odds": 3.09,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 6m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hapoel Katamon (12.9%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.09",
"2.82",
"2.55"
],
"display": "3.12 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 6m",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.12"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
3.09,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.09"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Hapoel Katamon",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hapoel-katamon",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"away_team_id": 4486,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4486.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"away_team_public_id": "0j7boeW6xn0wZV",
"away_team_slug": "hapoel-katamon",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555511,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"home_team_id": 4495,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4495.webp",
"home_team_name": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"home_team_public_id": "3Ohh6SNQbp79Cn",
"home_team_slug": "maccabi-petah-tikva",
"ht.home_team_slug": "maccabi-petah-tikva",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027al",
"league_id": 383,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/383.webp",
"league_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027al",
"league_public_id": "4qIijuRaW49qA9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:30:00",
"public_id": "3qiymValUz4nza",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Petah Tikva",
"venue_name": "HaMoshava Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2805,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": -0.0092,
"implied_prob": 0.3085,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3085,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3859
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3206
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3085,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3859
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3029
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4269,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3085,
"draw": 0.3055,
"home": 0.3859
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3714
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.1311,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2112,
"alpha_yes": 0.2112,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0415,
"edge_yes": 0.0415,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0936,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0617,
"implied_no": 0.4965,
"implied_yes": 0.5035,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4873
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4873,
"p_final_yes": 0.5127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2109,
"alpha_under": 0.232,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0425,
"edge_under": -0.0425,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0524,
"ev_under": -0.1246,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.087,
"implied_over": 0.4395,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4403,
"implied_under": 0.5605,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5597,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.55
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4491,
"p_final_under": 0.55,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.087,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.087,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Petah Tikva at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Petah Tikva as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maccabi Petah Tikva).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0827,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1311,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Maccabi Petah Tikva"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.5041,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4873
},
"p_final": 0.5127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5127
}
},
"edge": 0.0415,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5035,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4403,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"p_final": 0.4491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0524,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.55
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0425,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1555511,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hapoel Katamon",
"home": "Maccabi Petah Tikva"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4395,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0827,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3859,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1311,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555511,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T16:30:54.600824+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligat Ha'al — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
