AI correctly predicted the OFK Vršac win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 OFK Vršac OFK Vršac ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Vršac | 39.0% | 46.3% | -7.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.7% | +0.9 pp | Aligned |
| FK Grafičar | 31.5% | 25.0% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates OFK Vršac's win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (OFK Vršac win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on OFK Vršac. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced OFK Vršac higher (46.3% vs model 39.0%, 7.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (OFK Vršac win 4–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · OFK Vršac 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · FK Grafičar 31.5%
- xG · OFK Vršac 1.38 — FK Grafičar 1.22
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · OFK Vršac 1.92 · Draw 3.10 · FK Grafičar 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · OFK Vršac 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Grafičar 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · OFK Vršac 1.92 · Draw 3.10 · FK Grafičar 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · OFK Vršac 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · FK Grafičar 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result OFK Vršac win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
63/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
OFK Vršac win · OFK Vršac 4–1 FK Grafičar
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1863,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.118,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates OFK Vr\u0161ac at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies OFK Vr\u0161ac as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side OFK Vr\u0161ac \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554154 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.32,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.118,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates OFK Vr\u0161ac at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies OFK Vr\u0161ac as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side OFK Vr\u0161ac \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554154 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: OFK Vr\u0161ac 1.38 xG vs FK Grafi\u010dar 1.22 \u2192 OFK Vr\u0161ac 39.0%",
"Market: OFK Vr\u0161ac ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours OFK Vr\u0161ac, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.32,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"market_prob": 46.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.87,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "FK Grafi\u010dar",
"market_prob": 25.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.08,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.08,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"market_prob_pct": 46.29,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates OFK Vr\u0161ac\u0027s win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: OFK Vr\u0161ac 1.38 xG vs FK Grafi\u010dar 1.22 \u2192 OFK Vr\u0161ac 39.0%",
"Market: OFK Vr\u0161ac ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours OFK Vr\u0161ac, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.32,
"hero_label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 5.9%. Confirmation remains limited (3/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on OFK Vr\u0161ac. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on OFK Vr\u0161ac. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 5.9%. Confirmation remains limited (3/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices OFK Vr\u0161ac above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 5.9%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/10), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices OFK Vr\u0161ac higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.32,
"edge_pp": -7.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"market_prob_pct": 46.29,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.87,
"edge_pp": 0.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.44,
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FK Grafi\u010dar",
"market_prob_pct": 25.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers OFK Vr\u0161ac (46.3%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.9%, 3/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 OFK Vr\u0161ac, Market \u2192 OFK Vr\u0161ac, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"closing_odds": 1.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.08,
"entry_odds": 1.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.50 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.20) \u2014 net 5.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.25",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 8m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.1,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,12.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "graficar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FK Grafi\u010dar",
"away_team_id": 4252,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4252.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK Grafi\u010dar",
"away_team_public_id": "34w2ZFG1BmCKXp",
"away_team_slug": "graficar",
"country_code": "RS",
"country_display_name": "Serbia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rs.svg",
"country_id": 138,
"country_name": "Serbia",
"fixture_id": 1554154,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Serbia",
"home_team_display_name": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"home_team_id": 12329,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12329.webp",
"home_team_name": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"home_team_public_id": "0jXH2eYBhJ2rHt",
"home_team_slug": "ofk-vrsac",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ofk-vrsac",
"league_country": "Serbia",
"league_country_display": "Serbia",
"league_display_name": "Prva Liga de Serbia",
"league_id": 287,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/287.webp",
"league_name": "Prva Liga de Serbia",
"league_public_id": "489C0wPZqIMO2I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1CdgxnQuGRNGby",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Vrsac",
"venue_name": "Gradski stadion Vrsac"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.2504,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2504,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.4629
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2679
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2961,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.2867,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2504,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.4629
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2893
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5341,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0391,
"ev": -0.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2504,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.4629
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4238
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": 0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.0842,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.1312,
"ev": -0.2518,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2083,
"alpha_yes": 0.2083,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0508,
"edge_yes": 0.0508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1336,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0711,
"implied_no": 0.5068,
"implied_yes": 0.4932,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5055,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4952
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0711,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5048
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4952,
"p_final_yes": 0.5048,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2269,
"alpha_under": 0.2496,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.69,
"edge_over": 0.0236,
"edge_under": -0.0236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0677,
"ev_under": -0.0883,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.091,
"implied_over": 0.4584,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4555,
"implied_under": 0.5416,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5445,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2269,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4615
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2496,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5379
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4615,
"p_final_under": 0.5379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.118,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.088,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.088,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.118,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates OFK Vr\u0161ac at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies OFK Vr\u0161ac as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "OFK Vr\u0161ac",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side OFK Vr\u0161ac \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1554154 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours OFK Vr\u0161ac.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0391,
"ev": -0.1863,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "OFK Vr\u0161ac"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.4945,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.5055,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4952
},
"p_final": 0.5048,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0711,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2083,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0711,
"implied_prob": 0.4945,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5048
}
},
"edge": 0.0508,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2269,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.4555,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2269,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0677,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4615
},
"p_final": 0.4615,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0677,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2496,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5379
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0236,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4584,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1554154,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.088,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK Grafi\u010dar",
"home": "OFK Vr\u0161ac"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047872,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1863,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2518,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1554154,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:57:40.865644+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Prva Liga de Serbia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Čačak | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | TSC Bačka Topola | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | FK Javor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | FK Napredak | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Semendrija 1924 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Dubočica | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Metalac GM | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | FK Vozdovac | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Loznica | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | OFK Bor 1919 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Jedinstvo Ub | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Naftagas | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | FK Grafičar | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Javor | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | TSC Bačka Topola | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | FK Spartak Ždrepčeva Krv | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Borac Čačak | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Semendrija 1924 | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Dubočica | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Teleoptik | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Loznica | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Jedinstvo Ub | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | FK Napredak | 8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | FK Vozdovac | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | FK Grafičar | 8 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 15 | Naftagas | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
