The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Železničar Pančevo at 71.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Železničar Pančevo Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Železničar Pančevo | 71.8% | 51.8% | +20.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 18.6% | 27.2% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Mladost Lučani | 9.7% | 21.0% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Železničar Pančevo's win probability at 71.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 51.8%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Železničar Pančevo.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Železničar Pančevo by 20.0 percentage points (51.8% vs model 71.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Železničar Pančevo 71.8% · Draw 18.5% · Mladost Lučani 9.7%
- xG · Železničar Pančevo 2.41 — Mladost Lučani 0.81
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Železničar Pančevo 1.77 · Draw 3.37 · Mladost Lučani 4.36
- Implied 1X2 · Železničar Pančevo 51.8% · Draw 27.2% · Mladost Lučani 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Železničar Pančevo 1.77 · Draw 3.37 · Mladost Lučani 4.36
- Implied 1X2 · Železničar Pančevo 51.8% · Draw 27.2% · Mladost Lučani 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
47/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Betting Confidence
37/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Železničar Pančevo 0–0 Mladost Lučani
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"market_cards": [
{
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"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
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],
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"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"alert_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 20.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.97,
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"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2711,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo at 71.8% vs market 51.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo as the stronger side (71.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553827 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2712,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 78.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.6"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.6
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 46,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.97,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.81,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.41,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.41,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.41 \u00b7 Away xG 0.81 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +79%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"steam_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2711,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo at 71.8% vs market 51.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo as the stronger side (71.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553827 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2712,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 78.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.6"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.6
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo 2.41 xG vs Mladost Lu\u010dani 0.81 \u2192 \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo 71.8%",
"Market: \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo ~51.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2193 -13.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo, but sharp money moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.97,
"fair_prob": 71.75,
"label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"market_prob": 51.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.64,
"fair_prob": 18.56,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.34,
"fair_prob": 9.68,
"label": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"market_prob": 21.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 19.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 71.75,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"market_prob_pct": 51.78,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo\u0027s win probability at 71.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 51.8%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.0,
"model_prob_pct": 71.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 46,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo 2.41 xG vs Mladost Lu\u010dani 0.81 \u2192 \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo 71.8%",
"Market: \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo ~51.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2193 -13.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo, but sharp money moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.97,
"hero_label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Mladost Lu\u010dani odds shortened \u2193 -13.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Mladost Lu\u010dani, with odds shortening by 13.6%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"note": "Buying interest on Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds shortened by 13.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Mladost Lu\u010dani, with odds shortening by 13.6%.",
"Buying interest on Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds shortened by 13.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Mladost Lu\u010dani has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.6%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 53.2 pp (at 71.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 53.2,
"max_prob_pct": 71.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"largest_gap_pp": 20.0,
"lead": "The model rates \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 20.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.97,
"edge_pp": 19.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 71.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"market_prob_pct": 51.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.64,
"edge_pp": -8.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.56,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.34,
"edge_pp": -11.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 9.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"market_prob_pct": 21.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2014 odds shortened by 13.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo (51.8%).",
"However, Mladost Lu\u010dani has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.6%, 8/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo, Market \u2192 \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Mladost Lu\u010dani.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.5,
"closing_odds": 1.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.5,
"entry_odds": 1.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Mladost Lu\u010dani (13.6%, 8/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.50",
"4.93",
"4.36"
],
"display": "5.60 \u2192 3.69 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 151h 54m",
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
4.36,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.36"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2193 -13.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Mladost Lu\u010dani \u2193 -13.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 20.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"away_team_id": 699,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/699.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"away_team_slug": "mladost-lucani",
"country_code": "RS",
"country_display_name": "Serbia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rs.svg",
"country_id": 138,
"country_name": "Serbia",
"fixture_id": 1553827,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Serbia",
"home_team_display_name": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"home_team_id": 12360,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12360.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"home_team_slug": "zeleznicar-pancevo",
"league_country": "Serbia",
"league_country_display": "Serbia",
"league_display_name": "Superliga de Serbia",
"league_id": 286,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/286.webp",
"league_name": "Superliga de Serbia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-03 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1659,
"best_odd": 4.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.2102,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2102,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.5178
},
"model_prob": 0.0966,
"p_final": 0.1914
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.261,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1598,
"implied_prob": 0.272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2102,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.5178
},
"model_prob": 0.1852,
"p_final": 0.2493
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4197,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0841,
"ev": 0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2102,
"draw": 0.272,
"home": 0.5178
},
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"p_final": 0.6019
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.36,
"edge": -0.1327,
"ev": -0.5787,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"model_prob": 0.0966
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.1115,
"ev": -0.3759,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.1852
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": 0.1532,
"ev": 0.2711,
"implied_prob": 0.565,
"model_prob": 0.7182
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.22,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2711,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0654,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 20.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2711,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 16,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo at 71.8% vs market 51.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo as the stronger side (71.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1553827 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "16 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mladost Lu\u010dani, but the model still strongly favours \u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2712,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 78.5,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 78% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.6"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.6
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.515,
"draw_prob": 0.1852,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7182,
"over_prob": 0.624,
"total_xg": 3.22,
"under_prob": 0.376,
"xg_diff": 1.6
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0841,
"ev": 0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.515,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.624,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553827,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0654,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0966,
"draw": 0.1852,
"home": 0.7182
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mladost Lu\u010dani",
"home": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.056364,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u017delezni\u010dar Pan\u010devo",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0654,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.5178,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.7182,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2712,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553827,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-03T18:59:07.829261+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Superliga de Serbia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrella Roja | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnički 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lučani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Čukarički | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Partizán | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnički Niš | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrella Roja | 10 | 24 | 3 | +21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnički 1923 | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Partizán | 9 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
| 8 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 | Čukarički | 10 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Mladost Lučani | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Radnički Niš | 9 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7.0 | 1.1 | +5.9 | 22 |
| 2 | Estrella Roja | 10 | 5.9 | 1.2 | +4.7 | 28 |
| 3 | Radnički 1923 | 9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 17 |
| 4 | Partizán | 9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 5 | Čukarički | 10 | 1.8 | 1.4 | +0.4 | 11 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 0.8 | 0.5 | +0.3 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnički Niš | 9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | +0.2 | 8 |
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 14 |
| 9 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 15 |
| 10 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 13 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 0.3 | 2.1 | -1.8 | 9 |
| 12 | Macva | 10 | 0.5 | 4.7 | -4.2 | 8 |
| 13 | Zemun | 10 | 1.9 | 7.4 | -5.5 | 3 |
| 14 | Mladost Lučani | 10 | — | — | — | 16 |
