The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Minas at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Minas Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Minas; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Minas 1.32 — ADT 1.28
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Minas 0–0 ADT
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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},
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"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
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"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
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"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
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"tier": "low",
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},
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers ADT (18.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Minas, Market \u2192 ADT, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": 1.55,
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{
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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{
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
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"pick_team": "Minas",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Minas",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10492,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10492.webp",
"away_team_name": "ADT",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1553036,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_id": 26867,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26867.webp",
"home_team_name": "Minas",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_id": 1232,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1232.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de la Liga Peruana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Huancayo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Huancayo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3922,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0906,
"ev": -0.2517,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4828
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2734,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.2376,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2538
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1484,
"best_odd": 4.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": 0.0085,
"implied_prob": 0.1891,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2146
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.33,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"edge_no": 0.0026,
"edge_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0602,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"implied_no": 0.4524,
"implied_yes": 0.5476,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"edge_over": -0.0823,
"edge_under": 0.0823,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_under": 0.2587,
"implied_over": 0.5643,
"implied_under": 0.4357,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": 0.0085,
"implied_prob": 0.1891,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Minas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": 0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.4524,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0823,
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1553036,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2587,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "ADT",
"home": "Minas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.093805,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553036,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T17:59:30.381987+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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