AI correctly predicted the Red Star FC win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Red Star FC Red Star FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| En Avant Guingamp | 33.8% | 39.6% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.1% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Red Star FC | 36.6% | 33.2% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates En Avant Guingamp's win probability at 39.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Red Star FC win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on En Avant Guingamp. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Red Star FC higher (42.5% vs model 36.6%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Red Star FC win 1–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · En Avant Guingamp 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Red Star FC 36.6%
- xG · En Avant Guingamp 1.27 — Red Star FC 1.33
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · En Avant Guingamp 2.43 · Draw 3.55 · Red Star FC 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · En Avant Guingamp 39.6% · Draw 27.1% · Red Star FC 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · En Avant Guingamp 2.43 · Draw 3.55 · Red Star FC 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · En Avant Guingamp 39.6% · Draw 27.1% · Red Star FC 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Red Star FC win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
24/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.43
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Red Star FC win · En Avant Guingamp 1–3 Red Star FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1364b170c1adcb07ebd77680bab8e99be16d8e09ec205807c59bbc3382c01b17",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Red Star FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Red Star FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Red Star FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0338,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Red Star FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.01,
"market_odds": 2.9,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 3.8,
"prob_edge": 2.1,
"value_pct": 6.2,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "En Avant Guingamp or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "En Avant Guingamp or Red Star FC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Red Star FC",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "En Avant Guingamp or Red Star FC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Red Star FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.2,
"implied_prob": 34.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Red Star FC Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 2.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Red Star FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.22,
"draw": 27.14,
"home": 39.64
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:55:50",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:32:51",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.64,
"gap_pp": -5.89,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.14,
"gap_pp": 2.51,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.22,
"gap_pp": 3.38,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.23,
"gap_pp": -5.03,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.77,
"gap_pp": 5.03,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.43,
"early": 2.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.64,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.55,
"early": 3.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.14,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.22,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.2,
"ev": -0.15,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.8,
"market_prob": 0.1471,
"market_prob_pct": 14.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0129,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4579,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2364,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.5421,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5279
},
"p_final": 0.4708,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0671,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0301,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4708
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0826,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10224.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0237,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0052,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0052,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Red Star FC",
"sort_key": 5204.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"alert_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.87,
"hero_label": "En Avant Guingamp",
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"market_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Red Star FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Star FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Star FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Star FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.87,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"steam_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Star FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Star FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Star FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: En Avant Guingamp 1.27 xG vs Red Star FC 1.33 \u2192 Red Star FC 36.6%",
"Market: En Avant Guingamp ~33.2% implied",
"Market Drift: En Avant Guingamp odds \u2191 +6.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Red Star FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.87,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "En Avant Guingamp",
"market_prob": 39.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Red Star FC",
"market_prob": 33.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.83,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.83,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "En Avant Guingamp",
"market_prob_pct": 39.64,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "En Avant Guingamp"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates En Avant Guingamp\u0027s win probability at 39.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Red Star FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Red Star FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: En Avant Guingamp 1.27 xG vs Red Star FC 1.33 \u2192 Red Star FC 36.6%",
"Market: En Avant Guingamp ~33.2% implied",
"Market Drift: En Avant Guingamp odds \u2191 +6.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Red Star FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.87,
"hero_label": "En Avant Guingamp",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "En Avant Guingamp odds lengthened \u2191 +6.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on En Avant Guingamp. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on En Avant Guingamp.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on En Avant Guingamp. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on En Avant Guingamp."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices En Avant Guingamp above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on En Avant Guingamp (\u2191 +6.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on En Avant Guingamp."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "En Avant Guingamp",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices En Avant Guingamp higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.87,
"edge_pp": -5.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "En Avant Guingamp",
"market_prob_pct": 39.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.5,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.37,
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Red Star FC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on En Avant Guingamp.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers En Avant Guingamp (33.2%).",
"However, En Avant Guingamp has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.8%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Red Star FC, Market \u2192 En Avant Guingamp, while En Avant Guingamp odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.15,
"closing_odds": 2.43,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.15,
"entry_odds": 2.43,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on En Avant Guingamp (6.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.43",
"2.32",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.45 \u2192 2.13 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 1m",
"pick_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.43,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.43"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on En Avant Guingamp",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "En Avant Guingamp",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "En Avant Guingamp",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "red-star-fc-93",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Red Star FC",
"away_team_id": 104,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/104.webp",
"away_team_name": "Red Star FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0jbVwqPN5ZpulR",
"away_team_slug": "red-star-fc-93",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1552480,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "En Avant Guingamp",
"home_team_id": 90,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/90.webp",
"home_team_name": "En Avant Guingamp",
"home_team_public_id": "1gWodSzVpGrLGN",
"home_team_slug": "guingamp",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guingamp",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 2",
"league_id": 62,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/62.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 2",
"league_public_id": "0evsbGwHhHZb70",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5Ilch6Q4uTIrEY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "En Avant Guingamp",
"venue_name": "Stade de Roudourou"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4272,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.3964
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3466
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2887,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0109,
"implied_prob": 0.2714,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.3964
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2786
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3322,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.3964
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3723
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": 0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": -0.074,
"ev": -0.1798,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1681,
"alpha_yes": 0.2312,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0383,
"edge_yes": -0.0383,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4167,
"implied_yes": 0.5833,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4184,
"p_final_yes": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2364,
"alpha_under": 0.215,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.09,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.058,
"edge_under": 0.058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0815,
"ev_under": 0.0826,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0301,
"implied_over": 0.54,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5421,
"implied_under": 0.46,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4579,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2364,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.5421,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5279
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4708
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5279,
"p_final_under": 0.4708,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Red Star FC at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Red Star FC as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Red Star FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Red Star FC).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Red Star FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0129,
"market_prob": 0.4579,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2364,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.5421,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5279
},
"p_final": 0.4708,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0301,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.215,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4708
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.058,
"ev": 0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552480,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0826,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Red Star FC",
"home": "En Avant Guingamp"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.029951,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552480,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:55:52.894239+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para En Avant Guingamp & Red Star FC!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ligue 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint-Étienne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Red Star FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Reims | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Montpellier | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Nancy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Annecy FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Sochaux | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Dijon FCO | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Pau FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | En Avant Guingamp | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rodez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Boulogne | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 18 | Laval | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint-Étienne | 7 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 2 | Reims | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Rodez | 7 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Metz | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Dijon FCO | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | En Avant Guingamp | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Dunkerque | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Red Star FC | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Annecy FC | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nantes | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Nancy | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Laval | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Montpellier | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Pau FC | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Boulogne | 7 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
