AI correctly predicted the PSV Eindhoven win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 64.9% | 70.5% | -5.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 20.0% | 15.0% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Heerenveen | 15.1% | 14.4% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates PSV Eindhoven's win probability at 70.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 64.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (PSV Eindhoven win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on PSV Eindhoven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- PSV Eindhoven attacking xG significantly stronger (2.12 vs 0.98)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced PSV Eindhoven higher (70.5% vs model 64.9%, 5.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (PSV Eindhoven win 2–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · PSV Eindhoven 64.9% · Draw 20.0% · Heerenveen 15.1%
- xG · PSV Eindhoven 2.12 — Heerenveen 0.98
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 17:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · PSV Eindhoven 1.30 · Draw 6.25 · Heerenveen 7.00
- Implied 1X2 · PSV Eindhoven 71.8% · Draw 14.9% · Heerenveen 13.3%
- Bookmaker · bet365
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · PSV Eindhoven 1.33 · Draw 6.25 · Heerenveen 6.50
- Implied 1X2 · PSV Eindhoven 70.5% · Draw 15.0% · Heerenveen 14.4%
- Bookmaker · bet365
-
Oct 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result PSV Eindhoven win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
70/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
71/100
Betting Confidence
73/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
PSV Eindhoven win · PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
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},
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"label": "Reason",
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}
],
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"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": false,
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"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1363,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 92,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.62,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.98,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.12,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.12,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.12 \u00b7 Away xG 0.98 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +57%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"steam_team": "Heerenveen",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010049999999999998,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010049999999999998,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 64.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 70.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (64.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "PSV Eindhoven",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1363,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PSV Eindhoven 2.12 xG vs Heerenveen 0.98 \u2192 PSV Eindhoven 64.9%",
"Market: PSV Eindhoven ~70.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Heerenveen \u2193 -27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours PSV Eindhoven, but sharp money moved toward Heerenveen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.62,
"fair_prob": 64.93,
"label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob": 70.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob": 20.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 15.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.63,
"fair_prob": 15.07,
"label": "Heerenveen",
"market_prob": 14.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.6,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 79.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.6,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 20.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.51,
"fair_prob": 56.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.51,
"fair_prob": 43.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.93,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 70.55,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Heerenveen"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates PSV Eindhoven\u0027s win probability at 70.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 64.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 70.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.6,
"model_prob_pct": 64.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PSV Eindhoven 2.12 xG vs Heerenveen 0.98 \u2192 PSV Eindhoven 64.9%",
"Market: PSV Eindhoven ~70.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Heerenveen \u2193 -27.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours PSV Eindhoven, but sharp money moved toward Heerenveen.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.62,
"hero_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Heerenveen odds shortened \u2193 -27.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Heerenveen, with odds shortening by 27.8%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on PSV Eindhoven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Heerenveen \u2014 odds shortened by 27.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on PSV Eindhoven. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Heerenveen, with odds shortening by 27.8%.",
"Buying interest on Heerenveen \u2014 odds shortened by 27.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices PSV Eindhoven above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Heerenveen has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 27.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on Heerenveen."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.9 pp (at 64.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.9,
"max_prob_pct": 64.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices PSV Eindhoven higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.62,
"edge_pp": -5.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"market_prob_pct": 70.55,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.99,
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 15.01,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.63,
"edge_pp": 0.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Heerenveen",
"market_prob_pct": 14.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Heerenveen \u2014 odds shortened by 27.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers PSV Eindhoven (70.5%).",
"However, Heerenveen has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -27.8%, 10/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 PSV Eindhoven, Market \u2192 PSV Eindhoven, Recent sharp money \u2192 Heerenveen.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 75.19,
"closing_odds": 1.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 75.19,
"entry_odds": 1.33,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -31.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -24.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -24.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 27.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 20m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/10 books synchronized on Heerenveen (27.8% steam, score 100) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"9.00",
"7.75",
"6.50"
],
"display": "10.00 \u2192 6.00 \u2192 6.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 20m",
"pick_team": "Heerenveen",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "10.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
9.0,
7.0,
6.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 9.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Heerenveen \u2193 -27.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Heerenveen",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Heerenveen \u2193 -27.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"open_odds": 9.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Heerenveen while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Heerenveen",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 100,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"open_odds": 9.0,
"pick_team": "Heerenveen",
"steam_score": 100,
"steam_team_name": "Heerenveen",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "heerenveen",
"away_expected_goals": 1.3,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Heerenveen",
"away_team_id": 210,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/210.webp",
"away_team_name": "Heerenveen",
"away_team_public_id": "5DNKiiHCHoSMEq",
"away_team_slug": "heerenveen",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1552180,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": 1.21,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"home_team_id": 197,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/197.webp",
"home_team_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"home_team_public_id": "3IoClmvwVmWMj1",
"home_team_slug": "psv-eindhoven",
"ht.home_team_slug": "psv-eindhoven",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_public_id": "5zMr11kQIxzcev",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-09 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3GikapeGqmMuhB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Eindhoven",
"venue_name": "Philips Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 6.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.1444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1444,
"draw": 0.1501,
"home": 0.7055
},
"model_prob": 0.1506,
"p_final": 0.1456
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 6.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.004,
"implied_prob": 0.1501,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1444,
"draw": 0.1501,
"home": 0.7055
},
"model_prob": 0.2,
"p_final": 0.1594
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5495,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1444,
"draw": 0.1501,
"home": 0.7055
},
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"p_final": 0.6747
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.5,
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.1538,
"model_prob": 0.1506
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 6.25,
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.2501,
"implied_prob": 0.16,
"model_prob": 0.2
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.1025,
"ev": -0.1363,
"implied_prob": 0.7519,
"model_prob": 0.6494
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2122,
"alpha_yes": 0.4669,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1251,
"edge_yes": -0.1251,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3578,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0123,
"ev_yes": -0.2132,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1494,
"implied_no": 0.3129,
"implied_yes": 0.6871,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": 0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.3103,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"p_final": 0.3374
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4669,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.1494,
"implied_prob": 0.6897,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"p_final": 0.6301
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3374,
"p_final_yes": 0.6301,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4087,
"alpha_under": 0.1858,
"best_over_odd": 1.2,
"best_under_odd": 5.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.175,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.525,
"edge_over": -0.196,
"edge_under": 0.196,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2812,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1608,
"ev_under": 1.005,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0966,
"implied_over": 0.795,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7939,
"implied_under": 0.205,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2061,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4087,
"best_odd": 1.175,
"edge": -0.0796,
"ev": -0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.7939,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.7142
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1858,
"best_odd": 4.525,
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.2061,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.2423
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7142,
"p_final_under": 0.2423,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.005,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.005,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.005,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010049999999999998,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010049999999999998,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates PSV Eindhoven at 64.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 70.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies PSV Eindhoven as the value side (64.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "PSV Eindhoven",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Heerenveen, but the model still strongly favours PSV Eindhoven.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1363,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"draw_prob": 0.2,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6494,
"over_prob": 0.599,
"total_xg": 3.1,
"under_prob": 0.401,
"xg_diff": 1.14
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0271,
"market_prob": 0.3103,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.438,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": 0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.3103,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"p_final": 0.3374
},
"p_final": 0.3374,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0123,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4669,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.1494,
"implied_prob": 0.6897,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"p_final": 0.6301
}
},
"edge": 0.1251,
"ev": 0.3578,
"implied_prob": 0.3129,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1858,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.525,
"edge": 0.0362,
"market_prob": 0.2061,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.401,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4087,
"best_odd": 1.175,
"edge": -0.0796,
"ev": -0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.7939,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.7142
},
"p_final": 0.2423,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0966,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1858,
"best_odd": 4.525,
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.2061,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.2423
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.196,
"ev": 1.005,
"implied_prob": 0.205,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552180,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.005,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1506,
"draw": 0.2,
"home": 0.6494
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3578,
"implied_prob": 0.3129,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.438,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3578,
"implied_prob": 0.3129,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.438,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Heerenveen",
"home": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.403005,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.005,
"implied_prob": 0.205,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.401,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1027,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7055,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6494,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7518796992481203,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1363,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552180,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-09T19:40:33.712157+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Twente | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 13.6 | 4.3 | +9.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 13.6 | 4.9 | +8.7 | 17 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 13.4 | 7.8 | +5.6 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | +4.4 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 5.7 | 3.1 | +2.6 | 14 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Telstar | 7 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | -1.3 | 11 |
| 10 | Sparta Róterdam | 7 | 7.9 | 9.3 | -1.4 | 5 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 8.0 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 7 | 6.9 | 9.0 | -2.1 | 9 |
| 13 | Willem II | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4.1 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 5.3 | 8.2 | -2.9 | 5 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 3.2 | 9.3 | -6.1 | 2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4.6 | 11.8 | -7.2 | 13 |
